I'd expect extra FUD coming into next week to hold the stock down under $700 as there is a massive call wall for triple witching 9/17
Some general comments about max pain / and put/call walls (using
@Discoducky comment as a jumping off point)
The 700 call wall is around 45k contracts. That sounds like a lot but that's also lower than the 2 big put walls this week; my only point being that 45k is big, but that's in a triple witching week - this contract has been open for 2 years accumulating open interest. The 9/10 expiration has been open for 8 weeks, with almost all of its open interest acccumulated this week.
So the call and put walls are certainly important, but there will be significant moves in max pain (690 right now) and new walls building next week that are bigger than anything currently open.
That being said weekly contracts never enter the week with 45k open interest - even 10k at a single strike seems pretty big, so starting the week with that much of a head start is definitely noteworthy.
Another way of looking at the size of the MM motivation to get to max pain (this is the easy one - motivation at the walls is more difficult) is to see what the payouts are at different strikes. Max pain next week currently pays out $2.6B. At today's 755 share price, payout rises to 3.4B.
As one comparison, max pain this week is 735 (right now) with payout of .18B (175M). At 755 (current share price) the payout rises to .23B (233M).
These details about the difference in the levels of pain are there on the same page with the charts - scroll down to the second table. It's an easy way to see how broad and shallow the payouts are around max pain; max pain itself is more like a cloud around that headline number.
In fact using the table it's easy to find out what the lower and upper bounds are when shares land within 10% of max pain. For 9/17 that's 630 up to 720. I chose the 10% arbitrarily - the point is that there's a pretty big window that is in the vicinity of max pain where the motivation to move the shares falls.
maximum-pain.com
Yup it's all made up. That's why Elon Musk spent half of the Q2 call talking about these industry wide challenges and sent an email yesterday noting their impact. Not sure why you are so dug in on this issue. It's extremely obvious there are supply chain challenges. Tesla's planning, which originally would've included production for Berlin and Austin by now, and adaptability are the reason they are able to continue growing -- not because the shortages are made up (not your words, I am aware, but that's the implication).
