Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[hacer]

The whale wants our help. Hopefully he’s buying more on Monday:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1436939846627389440

Based on today's price action it's more likely the whale is selling his stake and want others to give him a good price.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

This movement definitely looks like MMs preparing for a Triple Witching target on Friday to me. Standard MMD, then recovery, and as it recovers, another straight out-of-the-blue pushdown occurring now. I hope they all rot in Hell, every one of 'em.

This is a much higher volume battle than we've seen all summer. The stakes are getting higher. And just maybe the FOMO for 3Q is trickling in.

If $1.5-2B in earnings are becoming concensus.... everyone's gonna need to start adjusting their figures.

 

[henchman24]

This is a much higher volume battle than we've seen all summer. The stakes are getting higher. And just maybe the FOMO for 3Q is trickling in.

If $1.5-2B in earnings are becoming concensus.... everyone's gonna need to start adjusting their figures.

I'd say odds are low the street will get there until after deliveries. If deliveries hit in the 235-240+ range, there will be a lot of major revisions up between Oct 4th and earnings (doubt they'd still hit 2B though).

 

[Chunky Jr.]

Tesla will either cut prices at the end, or signal they are raising prices on future orders. With the margins that Tesla has, they have a lot of flexibility there.

They could also offer free supercharging or N free months of FSD, or both. They have several knobs they can turn beyond just price of car.

 

[ninpb]

It can affect Q4 deliveries. I imagine that a lot of buyers could try to delay their deliveries if it means saving $2500.

How you guys read the latest proposed bill, $7500 is in play in 2021?

 

[henchman24]

They could also offer free supercharging or N free months of FSD, or both. They have several knobs they can turn beyond just price of car.

True... I don't see any material impact to sales with the credits. If by chance there is, it will be a small dip then a huge uptick in Q1.

 

[SOULPEDL]

Current orderers could delay pick up until 2022. Or cancel and reorder.

Not sure about delaying pickup, don't you loose your place in line? But I could see some cancelling and reordering for next year delivery.

At which point, Tesla could heavily discount 2021 US deliveries and still take a profit. Didn't we see something like this in the past on a smaller scale? Or just Export more to Canada or elsewhere in Q4.

Pretty clear the Bill is intended to slow down Gas and Tesla both. So it's a bailout in disguise, as already mentioned. Wonder if we'll see a lawsuit down the road for discrimination against Tesla, maybe taken to the Supreme court (hopeful). I believe there's a victim here - the air we breath. I'm not a lawyer to know if this is likely. Perhaps for this reason Congress is trying to appear unbiased which is why Tesla will get some of the pie in the end, just not the fair share.

 

[ZachF]

Eventually, perhaps imagery from Starlink satellites ( I don't think they are equipped with cameras yet ?) combined with POV imagery from the cars could replicate what Google does now, but also be self-updating.

Starlink v2 satellites are supposed to be larger/more powerful and have other capabilities, this seems like pretty easy low hanging fruit (selling imagery to Tesla for a "Tesla Maps".

SpaceX adding capabilities to Starlink internet satellites, plans to launch them with Starship

 

[DragonWatch]

Forward Observing

New Mexico Tesla just anchored a deal in NM to open a sales and service center on indigenous peoples lands.

For those asleep, this is a portal to a whole new world. Every, every indigenous peoples land could expand into private enterprise wonderland. Pulling tax monies into the tribe ~ not corrupt politicians. Indigenous Peoples are moving out from casinos or expanding business opportunities.

New Mexico Zero, Indigenous Peoples Ten.

Damned good move

 

[Knightshade]

Holy smokes, I never thought about this. Wow yes, Tesla could create a "Google Street View", only with high resolution data that is far more up-to-date than Street View!

Googles street view cars have numerous 20 megapixel cameras and multiple LIDAR sensors- so no Tesla isn't gonna be creating a "high resolution" alternative with their 0.9 mp 720p cams alone.

Teslas entire design philosophy is you don't NEED super high resolution map data (or LIDAR) to self-drive- so why waste $ putting those things on the car?

The could certainly build their own maps for a lot of useful internal purposes (and have mentioned doing exactly that), but they're not replacing google with this sensor suite....

 

[Tim S]

True... I don't see any material impact to sales with the credits. If by chance there is, it will be a small dip then a huge uptick in Q1.

Also remember the EV tax credit only applies to the USA. If it doesn't take effect until January, in Q4 Tesla can export more cars from Fremont (and Texas?) to Canada and the rest of the world. Then in Q1, everything made in the USA stays in the USA to take advantage of the credit.

 

[bpjod]

They could also offer free supercharging or N free months of FSD, or both. They have several knobs they can turn beyond just price of car.

I really think they should start offering N free months of FSD now that they have subscription models available. Even Enhanced Autopilot (EAP) took me a couple of weeks to get comfortable when I got my car back in 2018. Now I'd never be without at least EAP's features. Get new drivers hooked with a couple months of FSD and they'll renew once their free months expire. Costs Tesla nothing and a high probability of generating more revenue in the future.

 

[Nolimits]

Missed the bottom. But got some at 720. Bought some at 740 last week so what the heck. Long term? $20 doesn’t shouldn’t make a difference. Kudos to those who got some at 710 and 709 today. Awesome timing! /luck!

 

[Nocturnal]

Picked up a Nov $900 as a mini lotto ticket on the dip. Cushion money is getting lean again.

Not sure about delaying pickup, don't you loose your place in line? But I could see some cancelling and reordering for next year delivery.

At which point, Tesla could heavily discount 2021 US deliveries and still take a profit. Didn't we see something like this in the past on a smaller scale? Or just Export more to Canada or elsewhere in Q4.

Pretty clear the Bill is intended to slow down Gas and Tesla both. So it's a bailout in disguise, as already mentioned. Wonder if we'll see a lawsuit down the road for discrimination against Tesla, maybe taken to the Supreme court (hopeful). I believe there's a victim here - the air we breath. I'm not a lawyer to know if this is likely. Perhaps for this reason Congress is trying to appear unbiased which is why Tesla will get some of the pie in the end, just not the fair share.

I doubt that many people will change their plans by a year just to save 2500 on a vehicle, especially as Tesla would likely throw them a bone in the form of free connectivity or something.

 

[kbM3]

For the tea leaves readers: Elon being playful, changed his Twitter display name from "Elon Musk" to "Name" - seems like being in a good mood implies good health for the company, then again he's ambivalent about the SP. So probably a gradual, no drama (no split) increase, "on average", with the normal fabricated ups and downs (for readers new to the forum and TSLA).

https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1437324607292428290

View attachment 708740

What a huge relief!

I was very concerned when I saw Gali’s Tesla try and drive straight into those concrete pillars. Determining a driveable path in difficult situations is critical to Autonomy and the fact that FSD thought it could drive straight through something as common (relatively speaking) as concrete pillars seemed to indicate Tesla was nowhere close. I knew Tesla could solve concrete pillars in particular, but to achieve FSD it HAS to solve for unknown objects or very strange things happening to the road surface.

Elon’s tweet has really laid my concern to rest and i now understand how they can solve this extremely difficult problem (which pre-mapped solutions like Waymo don’t have).

 

[Chunky Jr.]

more approvals at giga Berlin...

Tesla lands more approvals in Germany for Gigafactory — Seeking Alpha

Tesla (TSLA -2.0%) lands some more preliminary approvals for its Gigafactory in Germany, according to Bloomberg The Brandenburg environment ministry confirmed approvals covering the construction of several water basins including seepage reservoirs, rain retention, fire extinguishing water...

apple.news

 

[Artful Dodger]

TSLA is paralleling NASDAQ, no?

No. It's a 3x multiple vs macros that is being enforced by wedgies:

 

[lafrisbee]

yeah but if I was a "multi" billionaire, and I was trying to accumulate a million shares I would not ask the "community" to do so while I was... Let me get my shares AND THEN tell others to buy.

So it seems that guy bought all he was going to last week and was hoping to keep the price up by having others join in late. Otherwise he'd have pulled the trigger when it got below his last week price target?
or the movement last week was MM's doing their thing, like it appears it is this week.

 

[Artful Dodger]

I've seen a lot of ridiculous price actions in my life, but this one certainly makes the top five.

Wot? Naked, lawless agression? This is just a Monday on Wall St...

Having honed their craft on TSLA, now they're doing it to the entire market: (the QQQ low occurred 3 min after the TSLA low)

#SEC Do your job.

 

[InTheShadows]

How in the world does one time that $709 purchase???

A trailstop order.