It seems probable that nearly all production of all chemistries will eventually migrate to a 4680 form factor. Presumably that could even work for solid state although by then other formats will probably be in use too. We all need to aware that battery technology is moving rapidly so there is a maximum outlook of about three years, since it has been taking that long to develop completely new battery approaches. Of course there will be improvements every year for every chemistry.
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
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Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
High Pressure Die Casting Tool
Cast Rear Body
Moving Side - 70t
... and FTFY.
Cheers!
ZachF
Active Member
My guess is that the pack for both the 2170 and 4680 pack is structural and swappable, just the 2170 pack will achieve it with added structural assemblies inside the pack itself, while the 4680 will use the batteries themselves for structural strength. You’ll need the 4680s for the planned weight savings, but this way you can still use 2170 capacity until 4680 ramps up.
(Edit: by “swappable” I mean the design is such that the factory can switch rapidly between each cell form factor due to the pack design)
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ZachF
Active Member
My guess is that the entire S3XY lineup will eventually standardize on 4680 structural packs and cast front and rear frames over the next 3-4 years.
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
Tesla Model S delivery times in the U.S have just shorten by 1 month. This in conjunction with Model X starting production...I think we should see a pretty big ramp up Q4 as supply chain issues are being solved. At current production rate, each month of orders is about 3k. So they can potentially produce 12k or more in Q4 of the S.
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Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
So true...this is my view on my hike today.
Krugerrand
Meow
Because inside his head he is 10, like most male members of the species regardless of biological age.
My Tesla is equipped with an awesome “Whoopi Cushion.” The most sage advice I can offer is to embrace your inner child — nature’s best medicine.
We have to believe we are 10...or we end up looking like your avatar.
Stretch2727
Engineer and Car Nut
I see lot of quotes on factory times or KPI (Key Performance Indicators) without much reference to units. In manufacturing operations there are 3 important time KPI's to understand the productivity of a factory. I see many quotes without explaining the units. Glad Elon clarified.
1. Cycle time (CT) - Takt Time - The time it takes between each product coming off the line. Typically around 1-2 min for most auto factories. Can be decreased by adding more tools and equipment. Easy to back into the capacity of a factory if you know the cycle time and the working pattern. (how many hours per week the factory is operation). Bottle and can manufacturing is the leader here....typically a bottle/can factory will run at 120/sec, this is why Elon wanted to emulate them for the 4680 batteries.
2. Manufacturing Cycle Time (MCT) - Actual clock time it takes from the start of a product until it is finished. This is more of an inventory measurement. If the MCT is 7 days and your cycle time (CT) is 1 hour your inventory work in progress is approximately 7 x 24 = 168 units assuming a 24/7 operations. Processes that tie up a lot of inventory (i.e. curing paint, drying, battery formation etc) can greatly increase MCT.
3. Labor Time/Unit - This is the actual labor time per unit. Pretty easy to calculate. If you produce 1000 per day and you have 100 people working a 10 hour day the labor content is 1 hour per unit. 1000 hours/1000 products = 1 labor hours/unit. This is usually the most important KPI when discussing the productivity of any factory
When the VW CEO quoted 10 hours for Tesla I am still not sure if he meant number 2 or 3 above. 10 hours for either would be world class for an auto factory.
There are many other measures but if you are talking to an operations guy these 3 will be top of mind when discussing any operation.
My entire career was in manufacturing, thought it would helpful to clarify these measures as I see a lot of people throwing out numbers without explaining.
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Johann Koeber
Happy Owner
On my way home from the Grünheide Volksfest.
My impression from talking to visitors there:
This event was very important and successfull to show the general public who Tesla is and what they are doing. Very good PR. The employees there were allowed to talk and all praised Tesla as an employer.
Tesla will be a Good citizen of Grünheide, Brandenburg and Germany. This is the perception the fair has created.
I have been on the Fremont factory tour (twice), but this here is much more advanced.
I was also surprised pictures and even video was allowed everywhere. No NDAs to sign, everybody was very communicative.
I heard (but could not verify) that close to 1 million people applied for a ticket. 10,000 were allowed to attend. I am grateful to have been one of the chosen few.
My impression from talking to visitors there:
This event was very important and successfull to show the general public who Tesla is and what they are doing. Very good PR. The employees there were allowed to talk and all praised Tesla as an employer.
Tesla will be a Good citizen of Grünheide, Brandenburg and Germany. This is the perception the fair has created.
I have been on the Fremont factory tour (twice), but this here is much more advanced.
I was also surprised pictures and even video was allowed everywhere. No NDAs to sign, everybody was very communicative.
I heard (but could not verify) that close to 1 million people applied for a ticket. 10,000 were allowed to attend. I am grateful to have been one of the chosen few.
RobDickinson
Active Member
No nda no block on photos or video just rubs the competitions nose in it.
They are looking at half a million new better faster cheaper suv's born a year in their cash cow home markets
They are looking at half a million new better faster cheaper suv's born a year in their cash cow home markets
How Tesla can sell 'full self-driving' software that doesn't really drive itself
Stretch2727
Engineer and Car Nut
As a manufacturing guy this was the most amazing thing I learned from Giga Berlin tweets.
I can imagine this evolving to most of the interior over time. Really cool.
Now I know why VW was so concerned about Giga Berlin. I am sure they have a lot of this information from suppliers or former employees.
I can imagine this evolving to most of the interior over time. Really cool.
Now I know why VW was so concerned about Giga Berlin. I am sure they have a lot of this information from suppliers or former employees.
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