Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[StarFoxisDown!]

Believe it or not, TSLA (3%) actually showing strength as it is down less than TQQQ (5%) and less than 2x multiple of QQQ (1.7%).

Alright we can all collectively blame @ZeApelido for TSLA now underperforming it's beta once again . He jinxed it

On a more serious note, I'm holding off on those Jan '24 1,000 LEAPS, I don't like the fact that the stock is showing weakness into the last couple of hours of trading yet again. I don't necessarily think it's going much lower, maybe it gets pushed below the 100 day moving average intraday and I'll wait for that. Otherwise I see it stagnating and riding the 100-day average until Q4 P/D.

 

[Troy]

I don't suppose anyone has Shanghai production numbers for Q3-2020 and Q4-2020 do they ?

See

https://twitter.com/x/status/1473003525978402820

 

[Curt Renz]

Benzinga - 13:24 EST: Here's When This Investor Expects Tesla Stock To Rise Again

Excerpt:

Guggenheim analyst Ali Faghri initiated coverage on Tesla Inc. with a Neutral rating. Faghri is positive on Tesla's long-term outlook, but the analyst warned that the entire EV space could experience slower growth than many are anticipating.

Having fallen more than 20% over the last month, Virtus Investment Partners' Joe Terranova thinks the stock is worth buying.

"It's a company that you want to reestablish a position in if you have gotten out, or initiate a position in if you don't hold one at all," Terranova said Monday on CNBC's "Fast Money Halftime Report."

CNBC - 1.5 hours ago:

 

[petit_bateau]

See

https://twitter.com/x/status/1473003525978402820

Many thanks @Troy

 

[Tslynk67]

Seems to be quite a desire to keep $TSLA pinned around $900 today, can we assume this is the Thursday target already?

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Seems to be quite a desire to keep $TSLA pinned around $900 today, can we assume this is the Thursday target already?

It would line up with testing the 100-day moving average. 880 today, going up by about $3 every trading day. Will be at about 907 by next Friday, the last day before Q4 P/D numbers.

 

[Dangerous Fish]

I have to come clean and admit that with all these fairly predictable large movements, I've been doing some swing trading the last few days.
But I've now decided I don't want to have a stressful Christmas, so I'm back up to my TSLA 'round number of chairs' where I was several days ago with some cash in hand I need early in the new year for the deposit on a new house.

I think I'd rather take a break from the tickers and try and to ignore what's happening in the market or I'll just get sucked in and spend too much time in front of my screens when I should be spending time with my family.

So I hope everyone here has a happy HODLing Christmas and that we all have a prosperous New Year. It's so useful to have a resource like TMC and this thread in particular.

Thank you!

 

[henchman24]

Yeah I think the next line in the sand is the 100 MA that could easily test at any point here. From there it could move to the 150 EMA which is at ~850 now. Tesla hasn't been below both of those numbers since June. I'd expect a solid rebound if the 150 breaks.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Yeah I think the next line in the sand is the 100 MA that could easily test at any point here. From there it could move to the 150 EMA which is at ~850 now. Tesla hasn't been below both of those numbers since June. I'd expect a solid rebound if the 150 breaks.

Wouldn't be surprised if we close Friday at 890-900 and then a push down on Monday to 860 or so with a rebound to 900 before the end of the day and then we move higher as I still think Q4 FOMO will kick in next week.

 

[woodisgood]

Alright we can all collectively blame @ZeApelido for TSLA now underperforming it's beta once again . He jinxed it

On a more serious note, I'm holding off on those Jan '24 1,000 LEAPS, I don't like the fact that the stock is showing weakness into the last couple of hours of trading yet again. I don't necessarily think it's going much lower, maybe it gets pushed below the 100 day moving average intraday and I'll wait for that. Otherwise I see it stagnating and riding the 100-day average until Q4 P/D.

Feels like we could be in for some stagnation absent some major catalysts. Also why I’m not pulling the trigger just yet.

 

[Boomer19]

Wouldn't be surprised if we close Friday at 890-900 and then a push down on Monday to 860 or so with a rebound to 900 before the end of the day and then we move higher as I still think Q4 FOMO will kick in next week.

Feels like we could be in for some stagnation absent some major catalysts. Also why I’m not pulling the trigger just yet.

yep, it doesn’t seem like there’s enough fear and loathing yet. we may be in for more downside. normally i nip on the ride down. in this case i cannot do that. i either catch it lower or i don’t. no big deal.

tesla roadmap will provide plenty of volatility for years to come. can’t win every game. just make the playoffs.

 

[tivoboy]

The iCar program has been a revolving door for senior execs, though that doesn't rule out progress being made. Also AAPL is not into building factories in US. Knowing them, they'd rather design the car, do the software, and get the suppliers to build and operate the factories, likely outside of US.

I think AAPL being the OEM here, has a really tiny probability. And if its Kia or Magna, it would be really weird to call them US automakers.

I’m going to say USA production partner for sure.. I’m going to have to put together a spreadsheet for all these bets.

 

[tivoboy]

I'm at about 283 miles of range at 100% charge in my Model 3 LR for example after 3+ years and ~30k miles, but I was already down to ~290 after 1 year so drop since then has been relatively tiny.

Not much practical difference for most other than if there's a charging speed difference using older batteries (I only saw one low-info screen shot so I've no idea what models these are appearing in or even if their 18650s or 2170s or what?)

I’m at between 311-318 depending on a couple conditions. I’m not really sure where 100% WAS as with various software updates it bounced around, but then settled about 315-323.. so i’m happy with where it is.

 

[mltv]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1473023478139801602

"In the statement of the water association to the licensing authority, among other things, it is said that in the event of the complete or partial cancellation of water license dated 02/28/2020 for the Eggersdorf hydroelectric complex by the administrative court, the drinking water supply for the Tesla project is not protected. The WSE also said the American manufacturer was not to blame for any of the water issues that were found.

This situation forced the Minister of Economics of Brandenburg, Jörg Steinbach, to intervene. He said that the water supply does not have to be guaranteed by just one water association. He drew attention to the fact that it is important to look at broader hydrological relationships, pointing out that the supplier can be found in neighboring regions."

Not fun to depend on someone else to solve your problem. No idea when it can be resolve.

 

[henchman24]

Wouldn't be surprised if we close Friday at 890-900 and then a push down on Monday to 860 or so with a rebound to 900 before the end of the day and then we move higher as I still think Q4 FOMO will kick in next week.

I'm waiting to see if the 100 MA can successfully be broken and hold into close. That is much more common with Tesla, but it typically still provides a real good base of support. With Q4 deliveries coming up and Elon's sale subsiding, I doubt the market really wants to have 100 MA acting as resistance and 150 EMA acting as support. That would create a fairly narrow band with how close they currently are (narrower trading ranges can lead to larger breakouts to either side). Much easier to account for catalysts having the stock fall within the 30 or 50 and 100 MA range.

My pure guess is there will be an attempt to roll on the 100 MA until Q4 deliveries where if a ~280-290k quarter happens, there is upside to the ~1050 range in early January. Which also happens to be where 22 EPS has been traded at since ~March (~110-125 EPS)... with estimates at ~8.60, that places in the 946-1075. Leaves room for revisions into Q4 earnings and changes to guidance on the call.

 

[SOULPEDL]

Someone keeping it above 900 cuz we were ready to leverage up at 880? Maybe some truth in there.

It’s the holiday season, doubt we ride out the year at 900. Somebody press the FOMO button. Valuation is unchanged since 1200 IMO. Look at past 2 Dec. But no one knows for certain.

I tried to buy a 1250 Strike > 1 year out, but couldn’t figure it out on this new phone. It’s a sign for me, better price coming soon?

 

[SOULPEDL]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1473023478139801602

"In the statement of the water association to the licensing authority, among other things, it is said that in the event of the complete or partial cancellation of water license dated 02/28/2020 for the Eggersdorf hydroelectric complex by the administrative court, the drinking water supply for the Tesla project is not protected. The WSE also said the American manufacturer was not to blame for any of the water issues that were found.

This situation forced the Minister of Economics of Brandenburg, Jörg Steinbach, to intervene. He said that the water supply does not have to be guaranteed by just one water association. He drew attention to the fact that it is important to look at broader hydrological relationships, pointing out that the supplier can be found in neighboring regions."

Not fun to depend on someone else to solve your problem. No idea when it can be resolve.

Steinbach can come do Az next!

 

[Chunky Jr.]

Early 2022?
View attachment 746264


Q3s are usually solid.

Now : approval in early 2022
Early 2022 : approval by end of Q1 2022
April 2022 : approval by end of first half of 2022

As I said before, I'll be pleasantly surprised if there are any deliveries out of Giga Berlin in first half of 2022.

 

[generalenthu]

I’m going to say USA production partner for sure.. I’m going to have to put together a spreadsheet for all these bets.

I am not too keen on uncloaking myself, but for anyone who is into it, here's a good website.

The Rules of Long Bets - Long Bets

longbets.org

 

[woodisgood]

yep, it doesn’t seem like there’s enough fear and loathing yet. we may be in for more downside. normally i nip on the ride down. in this case i cannot do that. i either catch it lower or i don’t. no big deal.

tesla roadmap will provide plenty of volatility for years to come. can’t win every game. just make the playoffs.

Yeah, to be clear, I’m also talking about the 5-10% of my portfolio that I like to keep as cash so I can buy dips instead of just be annoyed. I just find having the ability to “bargain hunt“ is psychologically better for me, even though being “all in“ earlier is financially healthier.