Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[dano-oly]

That's the two LEAPS I have my eye on. Really it's about do you want the extra 6 months of buffer. The break even prices are about a $200 difference in share price

With the Jan' 24 1200c because in 1.5-2 years time, a 6 month gap can mean A LOT in terms of earnings and can easily be a difference larger than $200 in share price, I'm inclined to go with the Jan '24 1200c. I'll likely just split my funds between the two of them

Thinking of taking advantage of these sale prices. My choices:

1. Raid the couch and just buy a few shares (accumulating as I've been doing for the last 5 years)
2. Use about 10% of my available margin to grab about 25 cheap chairs (have never used margin)
3. Use the same amount of margin and pick up one of these LEAPs (have never traded options and only know enough to be dangerous)

Receptive to any not-advice.

 

[Unpilot]

Thinking of taking advantage of these sale prices. My choices:

1. Raid the couch and just buy a few shares (accumulating as I've been doing for the last 5 years)
2. Use about 10% of my available margin to grab about 25 cheap chairs (have never used margin)
3. Use the same amount of margin and pick up one of these LEAPs (have never traded options and only know enough to be dangerous)

Receptive to any not-advice.

Not-advice .......Options....like cocaine, are VERY addicting.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Thinking of taking advantage of these sale prices. My choices:

1. Raid the couch and just buy a few shares (accumulating as I've been doing for the last 5 years)
2. Use about 10% of my available margin to grab about 25 cheap chairs (have never used margin)
3. Use the same amount of margin and pick up one of these LEAPs (have never traded options and only know enough to be dangerous)

Receptive to any not-advice.

Margin makes things tricky because well.....it's margin and even if you have a far out strike date on your LEAP, you can still get called on short term movements........otherwise in a situation like this where you have a 30%+ sell off due to a dumb reason combined with multiple big upcoming catalysts and a big earnings breakout on the horizon, LEAPS are the way to go to take advantage of the stupidity amongst Wall St.

If you do end up going with LEAPS on margin, for the love of god do not do far out of the money LEAPS. Sure the potential gains are bigger, but the risk is much bigger

 

[Curt Renz]

InsideEVs - 12:50 EST: Tesla 4680 Cell Production Stations Spotted Inside Giga Texas

Excerpt:

Images from recent drone footage captured at Tesla's upcoming Gigafactory in Austin, Texas, reveals four identical battery production stations that appear to be producing 4680 cells. Not long ago, we pointed out that Tesla received several large shipments of equipment for 4680 battery cell production at the new factory.

 

[Krugerrand]

New lawsuit filed Thursday against Elon by ‘shareholders’ because of his stock sale poll and Warren tweets.

 

[dhanson865]

A stray thought on investing and HFT, high frequency traders, and the 52 Starlink satelites just launched version 1.5, laser sat to sat
they are in a LEO shell and are using laser for high bandwith AND high speed ground to sat to ground AND ground to sat to sat to ground

fiber optic is 31% slower, so sat comm 1/2 way around the world could possibly outrun ground fiber optic in terms of HFT or possibly shorter distances
what are the latencies and is sat to sat really faster than cables

I expect others have given a lot of thought to this

The laser links are sat to sat only. Any communication sat to ground or ground to sat won't be using laser.

It will reduce ping for longer routes but it won't be affecting ping on short routes.

 

[StealthP3D]

Could be other OEMs, it's not that much production...
Call 2023-3028 5 years.
GM's Hummer EV is 200kWh, if the pickup is similar:
200GWh/5years/200kWh = 200k vehicles per year
200GWh/5/100kWh = 400k vehicles per year, 2 million total.
GM's total truck sales are around 800k currently, as are Ford's. <25% conversion with large packs would soak those all up.

A Hummer EV doesn't make good sense to begin with. Put a 2800 lb. battery in it and it makes even less sense. These kinds of agreements require the buying party to financially backstop the investment with purchase agreements. In other words, you need a buyer you have a high confidence won't go bankrupt before they can fulfill their purchase commitments.

Since they are iron based batteries, a buyer like Tesla with both cars and stationary storage plans to backstop the purchases, makes a lot of sense.

 

[mrmage]

Anyone want to make a case for Jun ‘23 1000c vs Jan ’24 1200c?

If you're counting on TSLA doing well in the near term (e.g. 2-3 months out), a 1 year LEAP seems enough. But if you're not sure and want 1.5 to 2 years to be conservative, I'll throw out spreads as an alternative.

Jun 2024 1000c:
Breakeven at 1240
100% at 1480
500% at 2440

Jan 2024 1200c:
Breakeven at SP $1450
100% at $1700
500% at 2700

Jan 2024 1200/1700c bull call spread (for example)
Breakeven at SP 1280
100% at $1360
500+% at $1700

Gains never stop for naked calls. However, for spreads you can adjust the strikes to match where you think the SP could be. For example, if there's a reasonable chance for SP 3000 in 2 years, increase the strike on either or both legs (e.g. 1400/1700 gives up to 650% ROI).

Edit: Like this enough to convert 12% of my shares to these, because it only requires 1/5 the capital for similar gains in two years even if SP reaches 2000.

 

[2daMoon]

Ooooh I like it. Let's name it Skynet!

Now, you know the Brits have Skynet assigned to satellites already, right?

Maybe Skybet, in honor of the short term stock gamblers, or, the Hedgies and MMs who might get ... terminated?

 

[Spacep0d]

I bought the dip. I'm either happy about the stock going to the moon or buying the dip. In either case it's a win!

 

[MD70]

FYI, this is an example of the type of issues we face in the UK due to our electric infrastructure.

My neighbour wants to dig up my lawn to install an electric car charger

My neighbour wants to install an electric vehicle (EV) charger, but the electricity company has to dig up my lawn — what are my rights? My neighbour wants to i

www.thetimes.co.uk

(It’s behind a paywall but gives enough details about the neighbours concerns.

 

[Curt Renz]

Benzinga - 13:24 EST: Here's When This Investor Expects Tesla Stock To Rise Again

Excerpt:

Guggenheim analyst Ali Faghri initiated coverage on Tesla Inc. with a Neutral rating. Faghri is positive on Tesla's long-term outlook, but the analyst warned that the entire EV space could experience slower growth than many are anticipating.

Having fallen more than 20% over the last month, Virtus Investment Partners' Joe Terranova thinks the stock is worth buying.

"It's a company that you want to reestablish a position in if you have gotten out, or initiate a position in if you don't hold one at all," Terranova said Monday on CNBC's "Fast Money Halftime Report."

 

[2daMoon]

New lawsuit filed Thursday against Elon by ‘shareholders’ because of his stock sale poll and Warren tweets.

When I saw this, the first thing I thought of is how the SEC form was filed for the transaction many months prior to the Poll, wasn't it?

It isn't as though it was some last minute consideration, public knowledge existed. The Poll was a only a Trolling of the more clueless Twits out there.

These TESLAQers, or Sour Grapers, or whatever, are only doing this suit for the FUD.

My sincerest hope is they have just as much luck with this as they have had with all other attempts so far, as in, no reaction, or better yet, opposite reaction than what they desire.

 

[PeterJA]

Record production?

https://twitter.com/x/status/1472972334097223686

So Jason Yang's tweet last month (copied below) that production reached 3600 cars/day was very wrong (assuming Troy's tweet is correct). I'll remember that next time Jason tweets numbers.

Edit: I guess Jason tweeted about capacity, not actual production, as pointed out by @StarFoxisDown!.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1464646946895773699

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

So Jason Yang's tweet last month (copied below) that production reached 3600 cars/day was very wrong. I'll remember that next time Jason tweets numbers.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1464646946895773699

Well to be fair, that tweet just says the lines can do 3600/day but it's clear now that it's a peak rate and that supply issues are still constraining Giga Shanghai. Supply constraints is the only thing that makes sense given production was only barely higher than Oct even though Oct has a week long factory shutdown.

Maybe we won't see that production peak rate maintained on a regular basis until Q1

 

[Skryll]

I bought the dip. I'm either happy about the stock going to the moon or buying the dip. In either case it's a win!

I am getting tired of winning

Not-advice .......Options....like cocaine, are VERY addicting.

Side effects included. Had much fun selling puts on the way up. Did it carefully 1-2 at a time. By the time we hit ATH and also shortly after, I was short 6 puts. No much fun rolling them forward since then, bought one back at a loss today to reduce risk and my tax bill. I think I underestimated the impact of macro and lured myself too far out onto the ice. In that context I would be wary of selling shares for leaps. The market can be irrational longer than I can stay solvent.
Pure buy and hold without margin would make me much more relaxed right now.

 

[Boomer19]

Anyone want to make a case for Jun ‘23 1000c vs Jan ’24 1200c?

i like the extra 6 months for the $50 premium. that’s q3 earnings and q4 p&d if you choose to hold that long, which should be pretty significant (berlin and austin will be at similar maturity to what GF3 is now)

note: i’m already in, and looking for more ‘24 1000c, but already have jan23 and mar23 too.

 

[Nocturnal]

BBB isn't dead, maybe.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/us-policy/2021/12/20/manchin-biden-child-tax-credit/

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

BBB isn't dead, maybe.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/us-policy/2021/12/20/manchin-biden-child-tax-credit/

Lol dear lord just kill this thing and move on already

 

[petit_bateau]

Well to be fair, that tweet just says the lines can do 3600/day but it's clear now that it's a peak rate and that supply issues are still constraining Giga Shanghai. Supply constraints is the only thing that makes sense given production was only barely higher than Oct even though Oct has a week long factory shutdown.

Maybe we won't see that production peak rate maintained on a regular basis until Q1

I don't suppose anyone has Shanghai production numbers for Q3-2020 and Q4-2020 do they ?