Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[ZachF]

With these numbers I really wouldn’t be surprised for if Q4 profit is over $3b. I’m not saying it will, just that there is a good chance of it.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Already looking ahead to next quarter. Seems like the 70k Dec China number is correct, maybe even a bit low. Extrapolate the Dec run rate to Q1 + more S/X volumes + 10k each from Austin/Berlin and Q1 P/D will easily be over 350k

 

[Sancho]

I’m beginning to question whether even 4mil cars in 2023 is too conservative. I’d be surprised if there isn’t more demand than that, and I’d be surprised if by then Tesla is still constrained as much by battery supply. Between Tesla itself and it’s suppliers, that should be enough time to ramp battery production.

So then the only question is: how fast can Tesla scale production in its four factories? And these P/D numbers are suggesting the answer: much faster than anyone anticipated!

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

With these numbers I really wouldn’t be surprised for if Q4 profit is over $3b. I’m not saying it will, just that there is a good chance of it.

Q4 profit will definitely be over 3 billion with these numbers

 

[DrJohnM]

I think that 1.6m is the low end for next year.

I expect that they are using the delays to the approval to dial in all the systems in Berlin, so the ramp could be quite quick. Also Berlin and Texas have the benefit of the giga casting to reduce complexity and less complexity = faster ramp. 2022 could be more like 1.9m delivered

 

[StealthP3D]

@The Accountant right now!

Me right now:

 

[Prunesquallor]

Lora's article is up on CNBC
Tesla delivered 936,172 electric vehicles in 2021, with the fourth-quarter setting a new record

And yet…

The company now dominates battery electric vehicle sales in the U.S. and much of the world. But it is expected to lose overall market share as competitors bring out fully electric models of their own.

and…

By 2030, about 24% of new vehicles sold worldwide are likely to be fully electric, according to forecasts from Alix Partners.

 

[JRP3]

I think it's people fearing how they can't get another lease once this runs out due to such a high demand that has a 1 year lead time and not allowing you to purchase your lease are culprit.

Tesla lease terms are pretty bad, much better off just getting a loan.

 

[garrett5688]

Of course they go and release this news the day before 2022 ROTH contributions

 

[tomorrowman]

I voted 1.6-1.7 million in the poll. I don't think I'm overly optimistic. I just can't believe Berlin and Austin will ramp slowly, they are following Shanghai lead and one thing for sure, Tesla fully utilize their learning curve.

To be honest based on Shanghai December production numbers they are at 850K annual capacity now. Assuming further production capacity improvements to Shanghai and Freemont they could potentially hit that number with just those 2 factories before factoring in Berlin & Texas. Next 2 years are going to be very interesting

 

[ZachF]

Tesla lease terms are pretty bad, much better off just getting a loan.

Especially with the current depreciation rates

 

[ZachF]

To be honest based on Shanghai December production numbers they are at 850K annual capacity now. Assuming further production capacity improvements to Shanghai and Freemont they could potentially hit that number with just those 2 factories before factoring in Berlin & Texas. Next 2 years are going to be very interesting

Two years from now Austin, Berlin, and Shanghai will all be making more cars individually than Tesla did this quarter.

 

[CorneliusXX]

I expect that they are using the delays to the approval to dial in all the systems in Berlin, so the ramp could be quite quick. Also Berlin and Texas have the benefit of the giga casting to reduce complexity and less complexity = faster ramp. 2022 could be more like 1.9m delivered

This weekend's videos show quite a few full skips of test production - far more than previous weeks. It sounds pretty reasonable that Tesla is ramping while not producing in Berlin.

 

[ZachF]

I expect that they are using the delays to the approval to dial in all the systems in Berlin, so the ramp could be quite quick. Also Berlin and Texas have the benefit of the giga casting to reduce complexity and less complexity = faster ramp. 2022 could be more like 1.9m delivered

My current guess is now creeping up to ~1.85m for 2022.

 

[Prunesquallor]

Look at the tweet date. We need to pay attention to this guy

https://twitter.com/x/status/1354865068563976194

 

[ZachF]

Already looking ahead to next quarter. Seems like the 70k Dec China number is correct, maybe even a bit low. Extrapolate the Dec run rate to Q1 + more S/X volumes + 10k each from Austin/Berlin and Q1 P/D will easily be over 350k

Don’t be surprised for Shanghai to dip a bit in Q1 for new years and China is also starting more lockdowns, so that is a possibility.

Q2 is when the madness should start, IMHO.

 

[Blue horseshoe]

Congrats Tesla and to everyone here! Huge beat. Here's some napkin math for 2022:

Projections 2022
(Produced)
Q1: 347k
Q2: 396k
Q3: 451k
Q4: 515k
2022 total production estimate: 1,711k
This is assuming 14% production growth quarterly for conservative estimated. In 2021 we saw quarter over quarter growth from q2 of 14%, 15%, and 28%.

Using price to sales ratio to come to some ballpark numbers here is my end of 2022 estimate for where we may end the year:
Based on 1.7M vehicles produced and a price to sales ratio of 18 (bear), 20 (base), and 30 (bull) I have:
P/S 18: $1719
P/S 20: $1910
P/S 30: $2837

This assumes about $55k in rev per vehicle produced and I lump all rev into rev per vehicle for estimation and simplicity.

 

[WADan]

Unfortunately, there were no opportunities to load up all retirement accounts with max contributions before these numbers hit.

If somehow futures, macros tank and Tesla goes flat or red, this will be me:

I had a nightmare last night. Tesla’s server was hacked, FSD with malware gets rolled out to the fleet causing accidents all over the world!

Sorry, guys, too much champagne. Waking to this news, it’s a wonderful world again. To 2022 we go!

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Don’t be surprised for Shanghai to dip a bit in Q1 for new years and China is also starting more lockdowns, so that is a possibility.

Q2 is when the madness should start, IMHO.

The 350k number is accounting for the Chinese New Year. As for lockdowns, there have been no signs of manufacturing lockdowns and no reason to assume there would be given the newer data coming out about omicron.

 

[Drezil]

Scraping for crumbs here, but the Tesla token is up 1.5% on the news.

Tesla tokenized stock FTX price today, TSLA to USD live price, marketcap and chart | CoinMarketCap

The live Tesla tokenized stock FTX price today is $0 USD with a 24-hour trading volume of $0 USD. We update our TSLA to USD price in real-time.

coinmarketcap.com

Up to 1090 now.
There should be limited trading on ls-tc right now..I think they open markets Sundays from 17-20 Euro-Time.

Edit: not this weekend due to new years