Rip at supply issues with Rivian. It took Tesla workers about 2 hrs to make as many Rivians in a quarter and a half. Maybe Tesla can ship them a hour worth of parts so they can hit 1200 by year end.
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Re. Shanghai:Amazing. 1.2 Million run rate annual without new factories
Re. Shanghai:
Above run rate is without the new battery factory just now being erected (see WUWA video a few post back).
Also without the around 3-4 times larger area where the parking lot/staging area for transport currently is.
This is scheduled to become yet another factory building soon.
(I guess they will move the parking/staging to the place just adjacent where all the earth piles are located)
What was the P/S numbers for 2021?
Here's a little weekend napkin math for your consumption. I set three scenarios for vehicle production and came up with some estimates of possible share prices by year end using a price/sales multiple.
Bear Case: simply assumes zero production growth through Q4
Base Case: carries through Q2 to Q1 production growth of 14% through Q4
Bull Case: assumes 15% growth in Q3 and 30% growth in Q4. Banks on rapid S/X re-ramp and additional model Y line in Shanghai
View attachment 680941
Total vehicles produced
Bear Case: 798k
Base Case: 888k
Bull Case: 930k
View attachment 680942
Big assumption to arrive at revenue numbers is 57,220 rev multiplier. I used Q1 total revenue (10.3b) divided by vehicle production (180k). Quick and dirty.
Total revenue
Bear Case: $45B
Base Case: $50B
Bull Case: $53B
View attachment 680946
I used a price/sales range of 18, 20, and 30. About 18 p/s ratio was the low point we hit in April. I like a p/s ratio of 20 for Tesla long term. Lastly a p/s ratio of 30 was about the peak we hit at the beginning of the year.
Estimated end of year share price range
Bear Case: $853-$1422
Base Case: $950-$1583
Bull Case: $995-$1659
Lastly below is the corresponding market cap estimates
View attachment 680953
*Best taken with a grain of salt
I still remember the early videos of Shanghai when it was a wet muddy field. And that was just three years ago!
I still remember the Potemkin Village remarks. It annoys my sense of fairness that people can spout off at the mouth, but never seem to feel any shame and rarely have consequences of any merit for such venomous intentioned words.I still remember the early videos of Shanghai when it was a wet muddy field. And that was just three years ago!
Did you put Sell Limit order on them or waiting what will happen ?My YOLO Jan 7th 1500 calls are going to explode.
Thank you again, Elon and team.
I still remember the early videos of Shanghai when it was a wet muddy field
No sell limit....that is why they are YOLO's.Did you put Sell Limit order on them or waiting what will happen ?
I bought Jan 7 $1100 Calls for $22 on Friday, I had $42 Sell limit on them, which I just updated to 84.20
That was the quickest recession in history according to Elon
Monday first thing news on CNBS , "NTSHA recalls all Tesla S & X because the puddle light on the door handle can burn out leading to a serious safety issue when the person steps on unseen ice What will Tesla do about all the 3 & Y which do not have lights to illuminate the entrees?.".Something something market-movers mid-monday-morning dip
HEY! I can do that kind of posting...stay inside your lines! get to work.
OK - got it.Dealers can sell cars for any price they wish- they're under no obligation to respect the MSRP, and they aren't owned by the car maker.
So they can do crap like add a big markup to EVs because they'd rather sell you an ICE you'll keep bringing back for profitable service, regardless of it the MFG would like to ramp up their EV transition or not.
Tesla in contrast is selling cars directly to customers (well, except in the handful of states that's not legally allowed still...like Texas- where you technically "buy" it out of state then they can ship your already bought car into that state), without a worthless middle-man adding cost but no value, and insuring anybody ordering the same moment as anyone else sees the same MFG pricing.
What’s the general consensus on Germany going into production. Re, political barriers etc.I voted 1.6-1.7 million in the poll. I don't think I'm overly optimistic. I just can't believe Berlin and Austin will ramp slowly, they are following Shanghai lead and one thing for sure, Tesla fully utilize their learning curve.
Tesla lies. They said 50% growth YoY going forward. Buncha liars!
In all seriousness though, they are now at 1.2M annual run rate. Shanghai has target production of 1M units (don’t know by when). Fremont runs at 600K? Then add in Berlin and Austin, which could each make 150K conservatively this year. So, I mean we are looking at a low end estimate of 1.5M units, but could be upwards of 2M assuming no supply chain issues.