Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Boomer19]

I'm surprised there has been zero discussion of margins!

My rough guess is Tesla price increases have been passed 100% to the consumer.

I bet demand was inelastic so therefore, I bet previous margin levels were maintained.

It would be madness though if that actually grew.

i made a post about margins earlier. and someone else posted a good margin thread found on twitter yesterday.

 

[Krugerrand]

What’s the general consensus on Germany going into production. Re, political barriers etc.

#teamaustin

 

[dhanson865]

Of course they go and release this news the day before 2022 ROTH contributions

Good point, I better be quick on the draw and get more TSLA before the earnings release.

Somehow in my mind I hadn't adjusted to the fact it's time to make that $7,000 deposit again.

 

[capster]

OK - got it.
But still - what is to stop Ford or other car companies from simply raise the price of the cars the sell to the dealers?
I mean, they can clearly see that the demand is there in spades when people are willing to pay huge mark-ups.
I understand that the dealers are making hay - the are profit-driven after all.

What I don't get is why traditional auto is not just raising their prices for EVs.
If they did, the dealers could still do a mark-up, but a smaller one. Legacy auto companies like Ford would then make more money - and thus have more money for all the investments they need for scaling EV production.

tl;dr: The makers’ and dealers‘ interests are not aligned.

The legacy automakers need to build EV market share to survive, so they are trying to keep prices at least somewhat affordable. The dealers want to delay the ascendancy of EV’s for as long as possible, so they jack prices up out of reach.

Legacy automakers are prevented from going around dealerships by law in many places. Hence, the automakers are trying to ‘push a rope’ in this case and that puts them in an unenviable and could-well-be-fatal position.

 

[The Accountant]

What a tease! @The Accountant I see this alert and I am trying to refresh as fast as possible....
View attachment 751166

....to only get a picture of a muddy field

What may be more amazing than the 308k deliveries is that the New York Jets have a lead over Tom Brady at the start of the 4th Qtr.
So I'm limited to updating the spreadsheet during commercials

 

[deffu]

What may be more amazing than the 308k deliveries is that the New York Jets have a lead over Tom Brady at the start of the 4th Qtr.
So I'm limited to updating the spreadsheet during commercials

We’ll watch the west side story unfold

 

[capster]

What’s the general consensus on Germany going into production. Re, political barriers etc.

There may be some further stalling, but I hope not more than a few months. And, sadly, I don‘t think we can expect the current US administration to get on the horn on Tesla’s behalf.

Germany’s is an export dominated economy, so Tesla could bring pressure by aggressively targeting the German OEM’s (non-domestic) markets. Room for such pressure probably exists despite the fact that Tesla’s and the legacy German OEM’s most lucrative markets most likely overlap already.

Nevertheless, the disruption from the energy transformation will get trickier still.

 

[The Accountant]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1477677614714306563

Gary Black points out that Wall Street has Q4 EPS at $1.97 (non-GAAP)
With the 308,600 deliveries, I am computing $2.70.
Quite amazing when you look at the EPS progression this year:

non-GAAP EPS
Q1 $0.93
Q2 $1.45
Q3 $1.86
Q4 $2.70

GAAP EPS
Q1 $0.39
Q2 $1.02
Q3 $1.44
Q4 $2.30

I will post full P&L later today.

 

[Thekiwi]

I’m now at $2.57 basic / $2.32 diluted EPS for Q4. (GAAP)

On a forward 12 month basis, TSLA forward PE is now well under 100x

Forward PEG (price to earnings growth) ratio under 1.00 (which is very cheap)

 

[Prunesquallor]

#teamaustin

Looking good in the final stretch.

 

[The Accountant]

I’m now at $2.57 basic / $2.32 diluted EPS for Q4.

On a forward 12 month basis, TSLA forward PE is now well under 100x

Is that GAAP or Non-GAAP?

 

[Thekiwi]

Is that GAAP or Non-GAAP?

GAAP

 

[MXWing]

Gary Black points out that Wall Street has Q4 EPS at $1.97 (non-GAAP)
With the 308,600 deliveries, I am computing $2.70.
Quite amazing when you look at the EPS progression this year:

non-GAAP EPS
Q1 $0.93
Q2 $1.45
Q3 $1.86
Q4 $2.70

GAAP EPS
Q1 $0.39
Q2 $1.02
Q3 $1.44
Q4 $2.30

I will post full P&L later today.

Cyber whistle revenues and profits have exceeded all vehicle sales from
NKLA
RIVN
LCID

 

[Bet TSLA]

I expect that they are using the delays to the approval to dial in all the systems in Berlin, so the ramp could be quite quick. Also Berlin and Texas have the benefit of the giga casting to reduce complexity and less complexity = faster ramp. 2022 could be more like 1.9m delivered

Well, by their original Berlin schedule, they are now in the sixth month of their ramp. So they should have volume production pretty much dialed in. It's the delivery part that's missing.

 

[Prunesquallor]

Gary Black points out that Wall Street has Q4 EPS at $1.97 (non-GAAP)
With the 308,600 deliveries, I am computing $2.70.
Quite amazing when you look at the EPS progression this year:

non-GAAP EPS
Q1 $0.93
Q2 $1.45
Q3 $1.86
Q4 $2.70

GAAP EPS
Q1 $0.39
Q2 $1.02
Q3 $1.44
Q4 $2.30

I will post full P&L later today.

Just image if Tesla advertised!

 

[Singuy]

OK - got it.
But still - what is to stop Ford or other car companies from simply raise the price of the cars the sell to the dealers?
I mean, they can clearly see that the demand is there in spades when people are willing to pay huge mark-ups.
I understand that the dealers are making hay - the are profit-driven after all.

What I don't get is why traditional auto is not just raising their prices for EVs.
If they did, the dealers could still do a mark-up, but a smaller one. Legacy auto companies like Ford would then make more money - and thus have more money for all the investments they need for scaling EV production.

The dealerships have got the backs of legacy auto for decades so it's hard for big auto to raise prices vs just letting their dealerships making that money.

Traditionally auto cars are "sold" on the books to the dealerships. But this is all an accounting trick as the "sold cars" were bought with borrowed money by dealers from legacy auto. So it cost lots of interest for cars to sit on lots but this insure that big auto constantly having a down flow of cars "sold" to dealerships to keep the economy of scale moving. So when there's a slow quarter worth of sales, the dealerships end up carrying a good deal of the cost while expanding inventory they don't want but legacy in the background give as much rebates to the customer as possible to help dealers move the cars off the lot (essentially legacy reimburse the dealers which they pass some of that savings to the customers).

So you see now that dealers are having the opposite problem in which they don't have enough cars on lot, it is literally their time to shine and it'll be a total douchebag move if legacy takes away that thunder by rising prices.

 

[2daMoon]

Maybe it is just me, but this weekend seems to be longer than the Christmas one was.

 

[SmokyPeat]

What may be more amazing than the 308k deliveries is that the New York Jets have a lead over Tom Brady at the start of the 4th Qtr.
So I'm limited to updating the spreadsheet during commercials

Ouch, never count Brady out.

 

[Bet TSLA]

Now here's something you almost never see: a headline regarding a crash that doesn't mention Tesla when there's a Tesla involved:
Fatal Collision On Sb I-680 Onramp At Capitol Avenue

Fatal Collision On Sb I-680 Onramp At Capitol Avenue
"Officers responded to a 1:04 a.m. report of a single-vehicle collision involving a white Tesla blocking the right lane of the on-ramp, which was closed 22 minutes later."

I'm curious how you can manage to kill yourself crashing a Tesla on an on-ramp. Seems rather odd.

 

[Lessmog]

Now here's something you almost never see: a headline regarding a crash that doesn't mention Tesla when there's a Tesla involved:
Fatal Collision On Sb I-680 Onramp At Capitol Avenue

"Officers responded to a 1:04 a.m. report of a single-vehicle collision involving a white Tesla blocking the right lane of the on-ramp, which was closed 22 minutes later."

So, the editor was not on autopilot this time?