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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
mars_or_bust
Member
Papafox said : >> I suspect most all the super-deep-in-the-money calls expiring Jan21 have already effectively reached a delta of 1 or nearly so, and there's no need for additional hedging on them.
He also said: >> I'm going with door number two as my explanation for TSLA's surprising inability to climb on Thursday.
where door#2 is the heavy selling was to keep the out-of-money calls from coming to in-the-money due to the high number of such open positions.
Tesla Facts provided a great 7 part thread explaining dropping the share price is done both by short selling but more so by buying puts which resulted in a put gamma squeeze and the current huge 7%-9% short position. On the other side of the trades, heavy buying at times yesterday significantly lessened the price drops.
He echoed @Papafox that deep in the money LEAPS expiring is not a concern.
Responding to a question of will there inevitably be a rebound, he said: >> Depends on the macro sentiment, but yes, yesterday's buying pattern and reversal was pretty bullish.
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wombat9
Member
Looks like we found a successor for Michael "I bet against TSLA with a gazillion $" Burry: Fraser Perring. Apparently he also bet against Wirecard. I will not link any articles, here in Switzerland I saw 2 front page articles about it this week on news sites. Quite boring the whole thing, I'm only investing in TSLA for 3.5 years but I feel like in the Groundhog Day movie with these clowns popping up every so often. Nevertheless, it is very well orchestrated by the media.
Buckminster
Well-Known Member
Confluence of events happening soon:
14th Jan? FSD 10.9
First Austin deliveries?
First Berlin deliveries?
17th Jan - FSD price rise
21st Jan - annual LEAP expiry - Max Pain at $740
26th Jan? ER
29th Jan - Numerology date (on a Saturday)
Last time I noted something similar, not a great deal happened...
14th Jan? FSD 10.9
First Austin deliveries?
First Berlin deliveries?
17th Jan - FSD price rise
21st Jan - annual LEAP expiry - Max Pain at $740
26th Jan? ER
29th Jan - Numerology date (on a Saturday)
Last time I noted something similar, not a great deal happened...
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
Put 'em on a returning Ro-Ro ship, drop 'em off in Israel on their way back to Shanghai. Prolly sold already.
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
Production cost per is are falling as production increases (operational leverage), but raw materials cost is increasing. Specifically, aluminum, lithium, and semi-conductors are all up significantly. This increased imput cost is likely fully paid for with Tesla's price increases over the past year. The gold std is margins, which are up.
Cheers!
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
Last of the LFP Patents are off in N. America by April 2022. Seems pretty clear what the timeline will be.
The want to single cast the front grill."Competition"
Make it as big as possible.
I think this will be a big deal but 2023 is the year to make an impact: announcements like that from Gotion for 200GWh (LFP) with a US automaker and for other applications. It's going to be building facility in the USA for this but the deal covers 2023-8 are just one example. Today nothing stops someone from simply shipping the LFP but then you have supply chain issues. In any case the megapacks are pretty much sold out so it doesn't really matter this year- could be cell constraints or power electronic constraints. The facility there in CA doesn't make cells (always welcome to be corrected), it is an assembly facility where the packs and power electronics are packaged. Basically Tesla has scrapped the Powerpacks (as far as I can tell) and has just moved to offer more capacity and better power electronics in a simplified package.
I guess I don't find the megapack interesting from revenue generation, they are still cell constrained. It's nice that they are creating more industrial scale solutions (because energy desperately needs this to clean up the grid) but there assembly facility doesn't remove the big hurdle, global lack of cells in 2022.
I would say though, that writing the CC especially in a tax advantaged account you can just immediately RE-BUy the underlying with the money from being called away.. yes, for some brokerages/custodians there is a cleaning period. -I don’t have that since I carry some balances and have either margin or the brokerage settles me with cash immediately. The only real time I can’t easily replace is when there is a limit UP on the underlying, and that usually does not happen or if I THINK that will happen I may have already bought a higher strike OTM call to hedge for that scenario. I’m not going to go into my track record since that is banned, but the number of times I end up getting called away is less than one of the phalanges.
These are indeed so fugly I just can’t fathom what is going on. I thought the Chris Bangle designed E65 7 series boot lid was really a horrible design, but at this point I have the feeling that BMW has hired Stevie Wonder to do their CAD design. No offense to Stevie Wonder at all, but we all know that his fingers should be on the ivory KEYS and not on the mouse or trackpad of vehicle engineering.
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
Sadly, it is totally not ready for “everyone” to get it.. I think the number of accidents and mishaps would increase significantly and odds are we would get at least one major fail/accident and possibly worse. Raising it to 12K now, soon is probably just raising it for raising sake. I don’t think they can justify anyone paying more than that today at all. It might go to 15K-20K at some point in the future, but I don’t see that for 2.5-3 years. As for a more general release I think we’re into 2023 sadly If not later. With the price raise, I think the subscription price will go up to $249 a month. I know that is more than the increase of 2K for full payment would imply, but I think they realize it will be a turn on turn off solution unless they put in some time constraints. Like min 3 month purchase, or you can only turn it on or off one time every six or 12 months.Here's a thought. Before increasing the price of FSD to $12k, how about you at least release Beta to everyone that paid for it already, like 2.5 years ago, and has had a safety score of 99 and now 100 for over a month....
Rotte
Member
Seems like manipulators are getting better at playing chicken and scaring shares from the little guys. Do we start up on Monday, or wait another week....
Zhelko Dimic
Careful bull
Few times I was called away, my strike was 20% underwater, as stock moved parabolically, maybe 50% in a short period of time. So I never made it work by finding another entry point.
I also have made it work many, many times, but in the end, those times it didn't work made me understand 'picking up pennies in front of the steamroller' phrasing.
You @tivoboy are extremely skilled in anticipating markets, with whatever woo-do you are using. You've called many what I thought were "impossible" price actions, and when you speak I listen.
So I trust you can implement this strategy effectively, and I just want to share my experience in opposition, as it cost me stock positions I would've liked to hold at the time. Yeah, couple of hundreds TSLA shares too, before split, in $550-$650 range, pre-split (shrug)
Sure, this isn't the best setup for this type of implementation. But they might be testing this way as a low volume test of the eventual urban tunnels. In those cases they would want to support low occupant vehicles. Plus, they don't have a tram vehicle yet anyway.
Hey, I don't pay much attention to Max Pain but I see you guys talking about it enough to accept it as a legitimate thing.
So, is this a situation where TSLA will come under massive selling pressure through the 21st followed by a massive move up going into ER? Is this a setup for a short term opportunity?
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