Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
SBLOC: extra cash by borrowing against assets | TMC
"SBLOC" is the SEC's abbrevation for "securities-backed lines of credit". Lots in this thread.
Cheers!
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
SBLOC: extra cash by borrowing against assets | TMC
"SBLOC" is the SEC's abbrevation for "securities-backed lines of credit". Lots in this thread.
Cheers!
I'm gonna ad another dimension - IF (big IF) FSD works /w automated SUC - then all those Cars can grid stabilize during idle anyway - Tesla could clean/tire-rotate during SUC Session - the car would be a Megapack 30-40% and a Robotaxi 50% of the time - my mind is exploding as I type.
Tesla could even use AI to analyze/predict grid usage and proactively route Teslas to take excess power or provide power in some circumstances.
OT/PS: Brought my 2013 P85+ to service today (3k for MCU2,TPMS,Doorhandle) - got a M3P as free loaner - driving vMax 260 on the Autobahn is addictive - my old P85+ is limited to 210, and that takes a bit to get there. I might need to buy a M3P until Plaid arrives in Germany with >=299km/h.
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Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
TSLA’s gonna be held between 1000 and 1100 till earnings isn’t it. Will probably be a struggle to stay above 1,000 actually.
I love watching other growth stocks with P/E multiples 2-3X higher than Tesla’s rocket higher today lol
Impressive! You timed today's "hedgie head-fake" to within 4 minutes of the bottom. Well done!
/S
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
Gigapress
Trying to be less wrong
69% YoY production growth with same buildings as Q1 2021; new factories not even added yet.
6 days of COVID lockdown in Q1.
4? days missed production from Chinese New Year.
Q4 had 92 calendar days.
Q1 had 90 calendar days with about 10 of those missed at Shanghai, so estimate 80 actual days.
Currently, Shanghai accounts for about 70% of Tesla’s car manufacturing volume capacity.
With production total being flat at 305k this implies (92 / 80)*(70%) + (92 / 90)*(30%) - 1 = 11% QoQ growth in total daily production rate when both factories are actually operational.
We had extreme supply chain problems that dropped the rest of the industry by like 15%.
This also doesn’t account for inefficiency caused by starting and stopping production so often.
In all, it looks to me that Tesla would’ve grown deliveries at least 15% QoQ to 350k+ without these challenges.
6 days of COVID lockdown in Q1.
4? days missed production from Chinese New Year.
Q4 had 92 calendar days.
Q1 had 90 calendar days with about 10 of those missed at Shanghai, so estimate 80 actual days.
Currently, Shanghai accounts for about 70% of Tesla’s car manufacturing volume capacity.
With production total being flat at 305k this implies (92 / 80)*(70%) + (92 / 90)*(30%) - 1 = 11% QoQ growth in total daily production rate when both factories are actually operational.
We had extreme supply chain problems that dropped the rest of the industry by like 15%.
This also doesn’t account for inefficiency caused by starting and stopping production so often.
In all, it looks to me that Tesla would’ve grown deliveries at least 15% QoQ to 350k+ without these challenges.
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There will also be times where the value to the grid is relatively high compared to the vehicle being used as a taxi so they will shift more for that purpose and/or raise fares.
Timing: we've heard this...we've been hearing similar for 5 years...I also hear the analysts that tour and get a much better presentation come out and say FSD in 2030. 2030 is something I can understand, it makes sense when you layout all the things that need to happen.
Then robotaxi, 5 x as efficient blah blah...I'm not a fan of Uber as an investment so when the business model is to create a more efficient uber count me out. Uber has taken tens of billions and created a ...money pit. Hell you could burn money on the beach at cancun to grill lobster at an investor party and create as much shareholder value. Uber is not a good investment. 12% below IPO and losses are in the billions. 15 years...$25 billion in losses. What do they own? Any amazing technology? Any factories? Software? Patents? Nope. They own destroying $25 B in shareholder value. So Tesla could launch robotaxi and not lose $25 billion because of no drivers. Why is anyone excited about that? A million drivers and they still can't get a car to my house within an hour. Maybe one day this makes money I just don't see it. If you see it and you have game planned that I'd be very interested in discussing in a separate thread.
I still like FSD, why?
I think FSD's market is wealthy drivers that can afford the software upgrade and sleep/watch movies while the car drives. I believe that most of Tesla's current fleet would gladly pay a few hundred a month in subscription fees for the ability to fall asleep. I believe it is going to be very profitable, software as a service in a vehicle fleet that just adds cold hard profit on much of the fleet. That I can pencil in. I get lots of dislikes for saying this but I don't see the robotaxi business model as a profit driver nor as an enhancement to sustainability. Lots of people disagree with me on this thread but I haven't seen any of them present something to shift my opinion and every time new information comes out it actually hardens my view. Very glad to be proven wrong or have someone explain to me why I am wrong. An Accountant or Knightshade type deep dive into the process and economics.
I am skeptical about Robotaxi timelines.
That said, whoever solves Robotaxi will rule the industry. When getting from point a to point b reliably without owning a car gets solved, it is absolutely going to rewrite the industry. There will still be private ownership, but for low-mid income households, the difference between paying $500+ per month for a reliable transport versus $100-200 will be irresistible. Lots of houses will go from 2 cars to just 1 as well.
I don’t think of Robotaxi when trying to value Tesla though because timelines are a massive unknown.
Also, Tesla needs to solve this. Otherwise someone else will and Tesla will be the ones getting demolished by the paradigm shift.
Gigapress
Trying to be less wrong
FSD timeline predictions are up for debate, of course, but the economics are night and day vs Uber.
The driver earnings are approximately half the cost structure. Deleting that is by itself enough to flip ridesharing from loss to profit.
But Tesla is positioned to reduce the overall long-run ownership cost by an order of magnitude vs the vehicles average Uber drivers are using. On Nov 4th, I posted this analysis:
Tesla can easily squeeze *at least* 4,000 cycles out of an LFP cell with *today's* technology. A 250-mile car at 4,000 cycles is 1 million miles. We already know the motor and vehicle structure can last that long.
Right now an SR Model 3 with the CATL LFP cells from Giga Shanghai probably costs less than $30k to produce. With full casting, new paint shop etc it could easily get down to $25k or less, which over a million mile life is $0.025/mile.
Solar PV, wind and batteries are still setting new records every year for cheapest energy in history. If you look at RethinkX's projections (Tony Seba's team) let's say the price of electricity is going to fall 10x from today's typical price of about $0.15/kWh to perhaps $0.015/kWh by 2030. Model 3 even driven inefficiently gets at least 3 miles/kWh. Energy cost: $0.005/mile.
Then, Teslas will continue to get better at avoiding accidents with software upgrades. So insurance cost eventually also comes down 10x because the risk comes down 10x. Let's say that comes down from today's average vehicle insurance price of around $0.10/mile to $0.01/mi.
Reupholstering the interior and repainting the exterior 3 times over vehicle life is maybe $10k total, or $0.01/mile.
Tires, cleaning, wipers + fluid and other basic maintenance is perhaps $0.02/mile at most, same as it is today.
Road tax will need to be added, let's estimate $0.01/mile.
Total cost of Model 3 SR with LFP pack: $0.08/mi.
Let that sink in.
Currently driving costs at least $0.60/mi for an equivalent experience. This is a 7.5x cost reduction!! This is literally getting close to competing with the shoe replacement cost of walking!!
Not all of this will show up in margins but the value proposition is incredible. And no one else has most of what needs to be in place for this to work at this level, plus the packs very well might last longer than 1million miles. Additionally, this assumes no end of life scrap value of the battery and the rest of the car. So $0.05/mile is a plausible outcome by 2030.
4/4/21 addendum: This also doesn’t account for revenue from using the car as a grid battery nor the efficiency gains from using Boring company tunnels for a portion of miles. And in a boring tunnel the pavement will be nice and smooth, energy efficiency will be more like 4 or 5 miles/kWh, stopping and starting will be uncommon, and crashes will almost never happen. So, potentially drag down further the costs for electricity, tires, brakes, and insurance.
Finally, they also will not use only Model 3 SR. Tesla Network vehicles will have many 1-2 seat cars and larger 8-16 seat vans . So the $0.025 per seat lifetime average cost estimate might be 2-3x too high when considering the overall reduction in empty seats vs Uber’s current fleet.
Right now an SR Model 3 with the CATL LFP cells from Giga Shanghai probably costs less than $30k to produce. With full casting, new paint shop etc it could easily get down to $25k or less, which over a million mile life is $0.025/mile.
Solar PV, wind and batteries are still setting new records every year for cheapest energy in history. If you look at RethinkX's projections (Tony Seba's team) let's say the price of electricity is going to fall 10x from today's typical price of about $0.15/kWh to perhaps $0.015/kWh by 2030. Model 3 even driven inefficiently gets at least 3 miles/kWh. Energy cost: $0.005/mile.
Then, Teslas will continue to get better at avoiding accidents with software upgrades. So insurance cost eventually also comes down 10x because the risk comes down 10x. Let's say that comes down from today's average vehicle insurance price of around $0.10/mile to $0.01/mi.
Reupholstering the interior and repainting the exterior 3 times over vehicle life is maybe $10k total, or $0.01/mile.
Tires, cleaning, wipers + fluid and other basic maintenance is perhaps $0.02/mile at most, same as it is today.
Road tax will need to be added, let's estimate $0.01/mile.
Total cost of Model 3 SR with LFP pack: $0.08/mi.
Let that sink in.
Currently driving costs at least $0.60/mi for an equivalent experience. This is a 7.5x cost reduction!! This is literally getting close to competing with the shoe replacement cost of walking!!
Not all of this will show up in margins but the value proposition is incredible. And no one else has most of what needs to be in place for this to work at this level, plus the packs very well might last longer than 1million miles. Additionally, this assumes no end of life scrap value of the battery and the rest of the car. So $0.05/mile is a plausible outcome by 2030.
4/4/21 addendum: This also doesn’t account for revenue from using the car as a grid battery nor the efficiency gains from using Boring company tunnels for a portion of miles. And in a boring tunnel the pavement will be nice and smooth, energy efficiency will be more like 4 or 5 miles/kWh, stopping and starting will be uncommon, and crashes will almost never happen. So, potentially drag down further the costs for electricity, tires, brakes, and insurance.
Finally, they also will not use only Model 3 SR. Tesla Network vehicles will have many 1-2 seat cars and larger 8-16 seat vans . So the $0.025 per seat lifetime average cost estimate might be 2-3x too high when considering the overall reduction in empty seats vs Uber’s current fleet.
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I smell 65,000 disappointed Hertz customers.
Hey, here’s one that could service the grid 24/7, or my home while I wait.
Heck, get ‘em going charging the semi’s for extra long hauls. So the vehicles pay for their own rides. Wait a minute… it’s so different thinking about batteries and energy now.
Heck, get ‘em going charging the semi’s for extra long hauls. So the vehicles pay for their own rides. Wait a minute… it’s so different thinking about batteries and energy now.
Nah. A road trip with a car is the perfect way to try out multiple EV platforms prior to purchase. Test drives just don't cut it.
This is also going to be 100% better than most ICE rentals.
StealthP3D
Well-Known Member
It's a fine line between good moderating and bad. Free speech should not be confused with the right to run a coordinated disinformation campaign. What is mostly needed is to filter out the trolls, obvious or not, while letting people say (mostly) what they want. It's more difficult than it sounds but some forums are really bad at it.
This investor's forum does a better job of that than many of the other forums on this site (which still have decent moderating). For a look at truly disastrous effects of failing to weed out what should have been obvious trolls, while heavily moderating reasonable discussion (micro-managing every little thing), go take a look at the Model 3 Owner's Club forum. It was a booming place with unlimited potential and the owner turned it into a veritable ghost town by letting sneaky trolls run rampant while simultaneously censoring reasonable discussion simply because it didn't sound happy and polite. The trolls quickly learned they would be allowed to rule the place and, as long as they remained civil and polite, they would be allowed to spread their misinformation freely. Simultaneously, reasonable discussion, if it even hinted towards anything less than ultimate politeness, was heavily frowned upon. What could have been a very valuable site is now a sad shell of its former potential. The lesson here is it's not wise to try to force ultimate civility at the expense of truth and honesty. You cannot force people to be 100% polite and gentle at all times and vigorous debate should not be viewed as "confrontational" or as an "argument".
What does this have to do with investing in Tesla? A lot! Because there are a whole bunch of early Model 3 owners who would be millionaire investors by now had they not been led astray by the army of trolls that freely roamed the forums there, masquerading as legitimate Tesla fans while making up and amplifying anything and everything negative while simultaneously running off people with more logical analyses. This created the wrong impression of TSLA's performance as a company and the likely coming appreciation of their shares. It decreased the pool of potential investors (making them poorer for it) and depressed the share prices slightly lower than they would otherwise have been at any given point in time. Forum members who saw through the BS went looking for greener pastures leaving the dregs behind. Forum management actually thought they were providing balance by letting these people spread their endless negativity and preventing the place from turning into an echo chamber. I want to emphasize that I'm not talking about people who simply had a different perspective, I'm talking about forum members who had the obvious and sinister goal of dissuading people from buying the cars and the stock and yet were allowed to roam freely as long as they remained polite and civil.
People here should realize how good you have it. Nothing is ever perfect, but it's a whole lot better than it could easily be as evidenced by so many other Internet forums where management and moderators don't have a clue what they are doing.
Half *or more*.
People feel compelled to tip when there is a human driver. Often that will be 20-30% of the fare or more. It's unlikely people will tip robotaxi.
I think most people want to tip at least $1 or per trip regardless of how short it is.
I tried, but they blew the power to it I think. Last known location was a flashback from the scene when it came to rest.You can just drive it like that until the new one arrives?
Rust in Peas little Peddler.
Ah, that's a bummer. Not that you'd really want it for daily driving, but you could at least move it around. Likely for the best, driving around in an EV with a short could be disastrous.
Heal up and hopefully your replacement comes quick.
Battery reference point:
The sad story behind the following is not of relevance - and is wildly off topic - so here is solely the kernel that is worth sharing on this thread.
I have in my possession two fairly large -120Ah (correction: 160Ah) - LiFePO4 batteries that have a nominal full charge of 12.8V and had discharged to a tooth-meltingly low 1.7V. For those of you not familiar with battery chemistry, that is death.
Smart-charged them over the weekend and, ta da! Both of them went right up past charge, past absorb, and on into full float. This is AMAZING chemistry!
The sad story behind the following is not of relevance - and is wildly off topic - so here is solely the kernel that is worth sharing on this thread.
I have in my possession two fairly large -
Smart-charged them over the weekend and, ta da! Both of them went right up past charge, past absorb, and on into full float. This is AMAZING chemistry!
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StealthP3D
Well-Known Member
Which is just insane if you know anything about the mechanics and realities of automaking! Because this isn't about sales/deliveries, it's about production.
Tesla is a much stronger company for having known they would be attacked from every conceivable angle. It has made them more independent and stronger. Which is just another way of saying TSLA is more valuable than most people realize.
Macros and Short of Elon doing something off the rails aside...is there anything that can really derail $TSLA from getting to $2k by EOY?
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