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If this is OT then it can be deleted, but I figured a discussion of The Competition (tm) is relevant to Tesla investing.

My 2018 AWD 3LR is at the service center for an upper control arms replacement. This is a common suspension repair on Model 3's of this generation, unfortunately. I guess the upside is that this is also the only significant repair work that I've needed done on the car outside of the warranty, which has already ended on my car because I've exceeded 50k miles driven.

Anyways, that's not what this is about. I was given a rental car during my service, and it turns out Enterprise is now renting out EV's. I drove home in a 2022 Kia Niro EV. This is a compact crossover SUV with a rated range of about 240 miles. It includes Kia's Smart Driver Assist features. So I guess I can talk about the competition for awhile, since I'm temporarily driving a competing EV.

The little Niro is a nice driving SUV, though the higher center of gravity causes it to wallow a bit when changing lanes too fast compared to my 3. In Sport mode, it has a nice little kick when I'm trying to accelerate fast. I haven't bothered to look at what the claimed 0-60 is on this guy but it's enough for me to overtake and pass drivers who block my path similarly to what my 3 can do on the freeway. When I set it to Regen Level 3, it has a similar amount of regenerative braking feeling. If I want to make the car stay stopped at lights, I need to manually engage the Auto Hold mode which is a button on the center island below the circular gear shifter.

In general, the car is fundamentally competent as any ICE Kia, it has a similar instrumentation layout and a similar center screen. The center screen is a touch screen and the UI isn't terrible, I was able to navigate around and find the options for controlling charge level and such fairly easily. It has some sort of nav system which can automatically search for nearby charging stations but I had no desire to actually try any 3rd party charging on such a short rental period.

The Niro has a decent sized trunk, though relatively short as this is a compact car footprint. There is no frunk, as with the Ford Mustang Mach-E, there's a bunch of stuff under the hood instead. Storage space doesn't seem great for an SUV comparatively speaking but at least the rear trunk area can be piled high with stuff if you want to carry more stuff.

All right, so it's a car and it's not terrible. That's a good start, so let's talk about the Smart Driver Assist features.

I was unable to figure out how to engage the "Smart Cruise Control" on the freeway, no matter what I did, it said the conditions were unable to be met. So let's skip that and talk about the Automatic Lane Keeping. Push the button on the steering wheel and the light comes on on the driver instrument panel. The car stays in the lane while you drive. On a straight freeway, it works fine as far as I could tell. There is no audible indicator when it engages and disengages as far as I could see, much like the Blue Cruise on the Mustang Mach-E, this seems really unsafe to me but what do I know.

The car has all the usual driver safety features, beeping and letting you know when you are leaving the lane, when someone is in the lane next you and you're trying to change lanes into them, when a car in front of you is braking, and most helpfully, it beeps at you when the car in front of you starts leaving from the stop light and you haven't moved yet.

"Leading car is moving" indicator and noise is helpful and I think Tesla should add this, especially when it's not properly seeing the light turn green or the camera's view of the light is blocked and not sounding the chime it does when it sees that. Also Tesla really should add an audible noise for when you're trying to change lanes and someone is in your blind spot, the side camera video feed is nice but if you're looking at the road and not the center screen you will never see it.

In general, driving the Kia Niro EV was pleasant. If I didn't have a Tesla, I would have been happy with the Niro. Unfortunately on the way home I got stuck in some rush hour traffic and then I was very unhappy because I actually had to drive the car myself instead of just putting it in Autopilot like I normally would and letting the car deal with the stop-and-go traffic. Then I realized why I like my 3 even though there isn't anything fundamentally wrong with the Niro. The Niro is nice, but the Tesla has all the technologically advanced features.
 
If this is OT then it can be deleted, but I figured a discussion of The Competition (tm) is relevant to Tesla investing.

My 2018 AWD 3LR is at the service center for an upper control arms replacement. This is a common suspension repair on Model 3's of this generation, unfortunately. I guess the upside is that this is also the only significant repair work that I've needed done on the car outside of the warranty, which has already ended on my car because I've exceeded 50k miles driven.

Anyways, that's not what this is about. I was given a rental car during my service, and it turns out Enterprise is now renting out EV's. I drove home in a 2022 Kia Niro EV. This is a compact crossover SUV with a rated range of about 240 miles. It includes Kia's Smart Driver Assist features. So I guess I can talk about the competition for awhile, since I'm temporarily driving a competing EV.

The little Niro is a nice driving SUV, though the higher center of gravity causes it to wallow a bit when changing lanes too fast compared to my 3. In Sport mode, it has a nice little kick when I'm trying to accelerate fast. I haven't bothered to look at what the claimed 0-60 is on this guy but it's enough for me to overtake and pass drivers who block my path similarly to what my 3 can do on the freeway. When I set it to Regen Level 3, it has a similar amount of regenerative braking feeling. If I want to make the car stay stopped at lights, I need to manually engage the Auto Hold mode which is a button on the center island below the circular gear shifter.

In general, the car is fundamentally competent as any ICE Kia, it has a similar instrumentation layout and a similar center screen. The center screen is a touch screen and the UI isn't terrible, I was able to navigate around and find the options for controlling charge level and such fairly easily. It has some sort of nav system which can automatically search for nearby charging stations but I had no desire to actually try any 3rd party charging on such a short rental period.

The Niro has a decent sized trunk, though relatively short as this is a compact car footprint. There is no frunk, as with the Ford Mustang Mach-E, there's a bunch of stuff under the hood instead. Storage space doesn't seem great for an SUV comparatively speaking but at least the rear trunk area can be piled high with stuff if you want to carry more stuff.

All right, so it's a car and it's not terrible. That's a good start, so let's talk about the Smart Driver Assist features.

I was unable to figure out how to engage the "Smart Cruise Control" on the freeway, no matter what I did, it said the conditions were unable to be met. So let's skip that and talk about the Automatic Lane Keeping. Push the button on the steering wheel and the light comes on on the driver instrument panel. The car stays in the lane while you drive. On a straight freeway, it works fine as far as I could tell. There is no audible indicator when it engages and disengages as far as I could see, much like the Blue Cruise on the Mustang Mach-E, this seems really unsafe to me but what do I know.

The car has all the usual driver safety features, beeping and letting you know when you are leaving the lane, when someone is in the lane next you and you're trying to change lanes into them, when a car in front of you is braking, and most helpfully, it beeps at you when the car in front of you starts leaving from the stop light and you haven't moved yet.

"Leading car is moving" indicator and noise is helpful and I think Tesla should add this, especially when it's not properly seeing the light turn green or the camera's view of the light is blocked and not sounding the chime it does when it sees that. Also Tesla really should add an audible noise for when you're trying to change lanes and someone is in your blind spot, the side camera video feed is nice but if you're looking at the road and not the center screen you will never see it.

In general, driving the Kia Niro EV was pleasant. If I didn't have a Tesla, I would have been happy with the Niro. Unfortunately on the way home I got stuck in some rush hour traffic and then I was very unhappy because I actually had to drive the car myself instead of just putting it in Autopilot like I normally would and letting the car deal with the stop-and-go traffic. Then I realized why I like my 3 even though there isn't anything fundamentally wrong with the Niro. The Niro is nice, but the Tesla has all the technologically advanced features.
Tesla also does this. It dings when the leading car accelerates away while you are still not moving and it beeps at you when you are changing lane into a car that's in your blind spot.
 
  • Disagree
Reactions: Andy O
Is it still only available when there are no cars on public road at 2am in the morning? I can almost fall asleep using FSD beta 11pm when there's min traffic. Disengagements are pretty rare for me.
FirebirdAlpha is a Care Bear 🐻 from 2018-2019 who was last seen posting about the “demand cliff”, Tesla’s precarious free cash flow situation and how Zach Kirkhorn is wholly unqualified to be CFO.

Evidently Firebird has decided to resume commenting. Best to put on Ignore.
 
I can almost fall asleep using FSD beta 11pm when there's min traffic. Disengagements are pretty rare for me.

Almost fall asleep
Disengagements are pretty rare

Surely you recognize the gap here?

These companies are demonstrating perfection. They are setting an extremely high bar.

They've been operating a 100% autonomous, significant fleet at scale for months.

Their own employees are getting in cars with zero driver. And posting about it on social media freely.

They have the government permits and employee confidence to do this.

And they're rapidly expanding their service areas, fleet sizes, and operating hours.

This isn't a publicity stunt. This is real.

 
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That production is much more realistic though… Tesla even stated logistics issues. Reuters likely got word early, didn’t verify and spun the news expecting Tesla to not confirm or deny (which has been par for the course with no PR dept). Not saying they don’t have an agenda, just that a throttle back like that fits.
I’m actually not regally disputing the 200 cars for tomorrow but I’d put money on context being left out.

As in, Shanghai might only make 200 cars tomorrow and then be back to the levels they weee at the day before. That’s what I think rueters is doing. They already had to fess up to pretty much intentionally misleading with that first article
 
I feel conflicted... Wtf?? Sell Tesla and buy GM?
What have I been missing? Is it the Cruise part? Some magical Ultimum Hocus pocus battery invention??

IMG_20220510_080043.jpg
 
Almost fall asleep
Disengagements are pretty rare

Surely you recognize the gap here?

These companies are demonstrating perfection. They are setting an extremely high bar.

They've been operating a 100% autonomous, significant fleet at scale for months.

Their own employees are getting in cars with zero driver. And posting about it on social media freely.

They have the government permits and employee confidence to do this.

And they're rapidly expanding their service areas, fleet sizes, and operating hours.

This isn't a publicity stunt. This is real.

The only reason why I am not sleeping (other then I'm not allowed to) is because it's not geo fenced and I have no idea if any other Tesla has ever been on the road I was on. When I went to the middle of nowhere in deep rural FL, I was 100% sure not one Tesla has ever been on that road. Still with no street lights and I couldn't see past half a ft what is in front of me if there's no light, my car made it home through inner city roads with zero disengagement.

I mean if there are no cars on the road I can just sit back and relax..the car can take it's time driving around. I don't have to mash the accelerator to be courteous nor do I have to drive 15 miles above the speed limit.
 
The only reason why I am not sleeping (other then I'm not allowed to) is because . . .
There's a difference between YOU, as an individual, doing it and Tesla, the company.

Why aren't Tesla employees taxing home with no one in the driver's seat and posting about it?

Why doesn't Tesla have demo vehicles, even if just 100, driving around without a driver?

Why isn't Tesla getting the same autonomous network permits as Cruise and Waymo?

Even if the geofencing problem limits them to major cities, that's still a huge chunk of the overall ride share market. And they're claiming first-mover right now.
 
There's a difference between YOU, as an individual, doing it and Tesla, the company.

Why aren't Tesla employees taxing home with no one in the driver's seat and posting about it?

Why doesn't Tesla have demo vehicles, even if just 100, driving around without a driver?

Even if the geofencing problem limits them to major cities, that's still a huge chunk of the overall ride share market. And they're claiming first-mover right now.
No, it's not really a huge chunk of ride share market. The ride sharing market for niche times and niche areas is TINY. You know the operating cost Cruise and Waymo has bleed through for the chump change revenue they can potentially make? Yeah no, Tesla is in the business of making money, not losing money. Waymo's niche geo fenced area earns them 2-3 rides per car per week in Arizona. Yeah Tesla is super excited to tap into that market....

Robotaxi is only useful in heavy traffic, very dense areas, and of ABUNDANCE. You need thousands and thousands of robotaxies to be useful. Suburbs where robotaxies work best right now are USELESS. You know how long I have to wait to get an Uber where I live? Like 30 freaken mins because there are like zero driving around my neighborhood. I can't rely on Uber or Waymo to get to work.

The market is not ready for these half ass attempt. First mover, 2nd mover, whatever...when it's not useful and it's not at scale..these are all fancy tech demos geared to gathering more investors. Again, Tesla is not in the business of introducing something that's not ready for mass consumption because without mass consumption, it's a drag on operating margins.
 
There's a difference between YOU, as an individual, doing it and Tesla, the company.

Why aren't Tesla employees taxing home with no one in the driver's seat and posting about it?

Why doesn't Tesla have demo vehicles, even if just 100, driving around without a driver?

Why isn't Tesla getting the same autonomous network permits as Cruise and Waymo?

Even if the geofencing problem limits them to major cities, that's still a huge chunk of the overall ride share market. And they're claiming first-mover right now.
TeslaKilla? Not.

1652165836818.png
 
There's a difference between YOU, as an individual, doing it and Tesla, the company.

Why aren't Tesla employees taxing home with no one in the driver's seat and posting about it?

Why doesn't Tesla have demo vehicles, even if just 100, driving around without a driver?

Why isn't Tesla getting the same autonomous network permits as Cruise and Waymo?

Even if the geofencing problem limits them to major cities, that's still a huge chunk of the overall ride share market. And they're claiming first-mover right now.
There is a fundamental difference between not only how these companies are tackling self driving but also how they are getting them approved.

1) Cruise/Waymo is tested and approved prior to its introduction in very limited areas and circumstances.
2) Tesla is incrementally improving the software as a driving assistance system prior to getting approval, at a future point, to remove the driver supervision requirement.

Tesla could also have 100 demo vehicles if it wanted, working at night and at low speeds like the others, however it would need the approvals first.... and Tesla are not interested in having demo vehicles with such limited functionality as it is a pointless stepping stone. Instead they want the whole problem solved, and at scale.
 
And they're rapidly expanding their service areas, fleet sizes, and operating hours.

I've driven using autopilot since 2015, in the rural UK, and in central London and a few other UK cities. Is the service you describe available here yet? is it scheduled to be in the rural southwest UK this year? next year? next decade? And when it comes, will it only be on certain roads, at certain times of day?

These other systems are absolutely constrained by the local maxima they have reached. They are boxed in to a solution that is GREAT at doing tech demos to mostly machine-learning-illiterate investors, but absolutely totally and utterly incapable of scaling. Every dollar that these companies spend on trying to improve their tiny walled garden of self driving is just delaying the point where they have to realize the stunningly obvious and switch to vision-only & machine learning. Every 'expansion' they announce makes teslas position STRONGER, not weaker.

Its laughable.
 
Since other than tesla fsd seems to be todays topic, I ordered a home grocery delivery by this little guy.

Was very cute. He plans the route from the shop by himself, and it took only about 30min to come to my place from the shop. Which is 2 kilometers away. But there's a few streets to cross etc, I live in a city.

View attachment 802462
On UK roads they have been known to get stuck in potholes crossing the roads. In such cases they ask for help (a push) and also they ask people to press the pedestrian crossing buttons. When there are several waiting (I think I've seen 6 waiting together), they park nicely to allow others to use the pavement. Very common here in some parts of UK, used by Co-Op (many, local branches) and now other stores (Tesco local?) use them. HQ not far away in Milton Keynes. You order on the Starship app and NOT on the providers' apps.

Simple, effective and get the job done. I think their use could be expanded to last mile couriers. Or last km in Finland.

Kids love them, sometimes used for delivering birthday treats for kids or refreshments in the park.
 
and how Zach Kirkhorn is wholly unqualified to be CFO.
It has been publicly reported by Kimbal that the Billion dollar investment in Btc was not properly researched. This falls squarely on Kirkhorn As CFO.

He would have a case for some support if he fully corrected this mistake. Halting vehicle sales via Btc is something but looks insufficient while still holding over a billion dollars on the books.

He gets yet another ding for not fixing his error. He has some time but not much. Making a mistake is ok but not fixing the mistake is a problem IMO.