Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[kclifton]

They said on the earnings call they're not reporting out current quarter production numbers anymore until eoq - ...so i dont know?

Q4 Letter - 2425 total production as of March 8, 2022
Q1 Letter - ~5k as of May 9, 2022

Let's say, 5k flat. 2575 total production in 62 days. 41.5/day assuming 7 days a week.
40*41.5 = 1,660 April 1 - May 11
But who knows, wish they would be clear. However, I am seeing a lot more of them now in SoCal.

 

[Artful Dodger]

On the flip side, the market is so oversold and TSLA's P/E is so low I can't help but think the bottom is in.

Wedgies don't care about no stankin' Pee-Eee... they only care about words like 'egregious':

Ooh, and round numbers. Like 50%.

 

[UnknownSoldier]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1524574665401942017

It's always darkest before the dawn. Not that I don't think macro could drag us down further. But as the saying goes: I didn't hear no bell!

 

[Artful Dodger]

Getting real tired of watching this move 7x the SPY on the way down.

TSLA doesn't really move with the SPY, it moves with the NASDAQ-100, though it was down 2.78x vs the index. This indicates heavy manipulation by hedge funds (TSLA beta, or expected multiple, is about 2.12x).

 

[SO16]

Trump on twitter again

Watch starting at 25:26 thru 29:15 for the reasons WHY. Be sure to watch that whole segment. Elon’s logic is sound, IMO.

 

[Artful Dodger]

PE ratio 99.81!

Tesla PE Ratio: 99.67 for May 11, 2022​

Tesla PE Ratio | YCharts.com

 

[OrthoSurg]

If the fed is hawkish Thursday, I capitulate

 

[Artful Dodger]

How on god’s green creation is Wal Mart only down 1% with a PE over 30 and 0 growth?

A zero-growth PE of 30 implies that WalMart pays a dividend of 3.33%

But WalMart's recently-announce annual dividend is only 1.5%

Walmart Raises Annual Dividend to $2.24 per Share, Marking 49th ... corporate.walmart.com › newsroom › 2022/02/17 › walmart-raises-annual-...

So yeah, overvalued. Perhaps by 2.2x ?

 

[Thekiwi]

A zero-growth PE of 30 implies that WalMart pays a dividend of 3.33%

But WalMart's recently-announce annual dividend is only 1.5%

Walmart Raises Annual Dividend to $2.24 per Share, Marking 49th ... corporate.walmart.com › newsroom › 2022/02/17 › walmart-raises-annual-...

So yeah, overvalued. Perhaps by 2.2x ?

Well technically PE is about earnings, and has nothing to do with actual dividends Paid out. At a PE of 30x, the “earnings yield” is 3.33%.

 

[Thekiwi]

Bitcoin has broken down through 28k, low of the day is now under 27k.

This total turd of an “asset” is now a drag on Q2 profits. I wish it would just go to zero already and get it off of tesla books once and for all as a future impairment.

 

[⚡️ELECTROMAN⚡️]

Well, this is interesting - my parents have now turned into Elon Musk haters and said the worst thing I did in my life is being a fan of Tesla.

Edit: their line of rationale - Elon Musk wants to be a "kaiser" and they were not big fans of him wanting to bring Trump back into Twitter.

As a counter to this, my dad became a Teslanaire for the first time today, after buying another $100,000 of TSLA on this dip. My parents are also loving their brand new Model Y. Their first Tesla.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Good for Cathie.
Would be in a worse position like me had she just stayed put this past week.

TSLA is down 38.8% YTD from the Close on Jan 3rd. GM is down 43.3% from it's year high.

GM has negative sales growth, and even worse prospects for its CRUISE automation division, which is what Cathie said impressed her during discussions with Mary Barra.

Cathie has "swing-traded" herself into a deep pit, and its getting dark. She should have listened to her own analysts about autonomy, rather than a CEO who had never ridden in their own product until earlier this year.

 

[dl003]

Bitcoin has broken down through 28k, low of the day is now under 27k.

This total turd of an “asset” is now a drag on Q2 profits. I wish it would just go to zero already and get it off of tesla books once and for all as a future impairment.

I hate to bring this up but its been a year and BTC has proven to be the complete opposite of an inflation hedge. At this point I am starting to question management’s decision to hold on to it. It has done nothing but hurt shareholders.

 

[Thekiwi]

I hate to bring this up but its been a year and BTC has proven to be the complete opposite of an inflation hedge. At this point I am starting to question management’s decision to hold on to it. It has done nothing but hurt shareholders.

Hard agree.

I get plenty of “feedback” on this opinion - but Bitcoin has never proven why it should be worth more than zero for something that has neither asset backing or control over an economy from which it can tax (the two viable options on which to base a currency on). All related discussion of “scarcity”, “blockchain” etc fail to paper over this basic flaw.

Cryptocurrencies that have real world, audited asset backing are a very good thing, but no one in the army of crypto traders are actually interested in those because they aren’t speculative assets they can pump to the moon.

 

[UnknownSoldier]

I hate to bring this up but its been a year and BTC has proven to be the complete opposite of an inflation hedge. At this point I am starting to question management’s decision to hold on to it. It has done nothing but hurt shareholders.

Crypto has always followed the stock market at a higher beta. Who in their right mind thinks it's a hedge for anything?

 

[ZachF]

Trump on twitter again

There is a 90%+ chance IMHO that Trump has a exclusivity deal with his dumpster fire DWAC/Truth app, and even if he doesn’t going back on Twitter is basically admitting Truth is done and his ego wouldn’t allow that.

 

[oneday]

There is a 90%+ chance IMHO that Trump has a exclusivity deal with his dumpster fire DWAC/Truth app, and even if he doesn’t going back on Twitter is basically admitting Truth is done and his ego wouldn’t allow that.

He could also just start every post on Twitter with, “This post copied from Truth Social…..”

Gets the free advertising, gets to ramble his nonsense on Twitter, and can even say he just has an intern copy all his posts.

 

[Thekiwi]

Crypto has always followed the stock market at a higher beta. Who in their right mind thinks it's a hedge for anything?

Tesla management has said it, most recently in its response to Karen’s shareholder proposal.

#KarenWasRight

 

[mad474]

Please allow me a short activity report: After 9 quasi carless years, I picked up Black Mamba, an awesome Model 3 Long Range, 6 weeks ago. Since then, my monthly commute of 1000 km between southern and northern Germany is no longer done by train, but with Black Mamba (and I can also take an examining look at my co-ownership Giga-Berlin every time I drive by).

As a result, the decision matured to focus the portfolio only on TSLA. The current development at the stock exchange supported the plan . Today, the reorganization of the depot is complete. All liquid assets including contents of all couches in 2 households are now exhausted. Scheisse, my nerves!

Now I can take a break and wait for the beating ...

In all seriousness, many thanks to the knowledgeable co-investors (including critical ones) for the extremely valuable information from here on the forum. You guys rock!

 

[ZachF]

lol…