JRP3
Hyperactive Member
Slamming on the brakes for no reason is just a simple example of automation not being solved on a very basic level. In a tunnel with another vehicle also doing 100mph behind might cause a safety issue.
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
Many folks can't seem to imagine the technological revolution that is coming soon. This includes me. But I try to think about it from first principles, not from analogy to the past. Cars have always crashed and burned, but this doesn't mean they always will... when they are driven by supercomputers. YouTube videos already show Autopilot reacting so fast to dangers ahead that the reaction seems instantaneous to human eyes. This is only the beginning.
In general, I think it is unhelpful to worry about Tesla disasters before Tesla has had a chance to prevent them. Those boys and girls are pretty smart, and their AI gets smarter every day.
dhanson865
Well-Known Member
wow you have quite the imagination.
Tesla's do catch fire in some cases but they don't explode.
As to "enclosed" it has a ventilation system and fire controls (exits, extinguishers, and such). You could set a car on fire in the middle of a tunnel segment and drive cars in there to go within sight of the fire and they could safely get back out and no one would be injured or die.
and I'm not sure where you get instant death. In the tunnel when going 100 mph they are in a straight section that has curved walls. The front and rear suspension could snap in half or disappear into thin air and the car would just slide to a stop. Nothing to hit. No injuries, no deaths. It'd make the news because it's Tesla but the passengers would walk away and be on the news talking about it.
Have you ever heard the phrase "weebles wobble but they don't fall down"? A car going 100 mph in a tunnel with curved walls isn't going anywhere but straight ahead. It won't flip, it won't spin, all it can do is slide straight ahead and come to a stop. I'll happily sit in the drivers seat while you pull the pin that lets one wheel fall off if you want to see it happen. It's a Tesla, like literally the safest car you could be in.
Let me also give you a clue about speed near a sharp curve or an intersection or one of the stations. They won't allow any car going 100 MPH near any of that.
Typically the car would ping pong between two walls has there's a bit of distance between the car and the wall. I believe you can fully open the door from both sides and there's still space. If the distance between the walls are tight then yeah it may just slide.
Anyways I doubt they are using models 3s to go 100mph but a rail system if anything like the original concept.
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dhanson865
Well-Known Member
Bzzz, not a 2 mile long tunnel
Vegas Loop, a 29-mile tunnel network
Just take a look at some of these sections that have a much longer gap between stations, then consider if they create an express lane that bypasses stations. Say you want to go from Fremont street experience to the Palazzo non stop. You could get some speed up on that long straight path.
dhanson865
Well-Known Member
Imagine this concept. EVERY CAR ON THE ROAD IS A TESLA and they are all in a tunnel.
with proper spacing, no signs overhead, no change in lighting you won't be seeing phantom breaking and even if you did the Tesla behind will slow down no problem.
The range of a camera is obviously not a fixed quantity, despite Tesla's simplification for marketing purposes. An insect is visible probably only a few meters ahead of the camera, while a mountain is visible miles away.
So Tesla's advertised 150-meter range is for some object-size they have chosen to ensure safety (pedestrians? stray trailer hitches?). But a car ahead is a pretty big object. I bet the camera can see it a mile away.
But again, this debate (fun as it is) seems like pointless worrying about the future. Tesla's computers will get faster. Their cameras will get higher resolution. We don't know the limits of robocar capabilities yet.
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Paracelsus
Active Member
The ‘Status Quo’ has just been changed…….
StealthP3D
Well-Known Member
So, what you're saying is to go from recent lows to new all-time highs it's necessary to go through $760, $785, $860 and $870? OK, got it!
Now that I know it will go through all those numbers on the way to $1200 and beyond, I'm pretty ambivalent about the exact manner it does it. It's similar to when I paint a wall. I know it's going to dry and I don't really care about the various stages of tackiness it goes through to get there. If I had guests coming, I would paint it a few days in advance so I didn't have to set there and watch it dry while hoping it would hurry up. Because I have better things to do than watch paint dry.
As long as the underlying business continues on the current trajectory, and that's what I'm really watching, I'm not worried about the share price in the least. I've seen this kind of situation play out too many times with other companies, over too many different years, to worry that it will be different this time. My only real concern is the unlikely situation where productivity around the world basically collapses and makes it difficult to get everything from screws to tires, from wheels to chips to brakes, sheet metal, etc. But I can't see a mechanism for this happening because people need to work and make a living. I'm not worried about demand, even in a recession. Tesla is nimble and would pivot to Semi's which would sell even better if shipping companies start to feel the economic squeeze. But that's not going to be necessary.
I can still honestly say that an investment with this favorable of a risk/reward ratio (looking forward, of course) is basically unheard of. People who think TSLA might be valued kind of high are simply not seeing reality. And I know a lot of people that have that impression that the share price is too high to be supported by the underlying fundamentals (mostly brought about by inaccurate and biased media coverage). It will be their loss for being so gullible as TSLA today is basically the biggest no-brainer investment I've ever run across. It's as much of a no-brainer as asking yourself if you should participate in your company's fund-matching retirement plan (only much more rewarding).
People in 2024-2026 who missed the boat will look back and make the excuse that there was a lot of uncertainty, that it was a complete unknown how Tesla would fare against bigger rivals and how slow those rivals would be to ramp EV production. They will say no one could have foreseen with any certainty how quickly EV sales would take over, how important energy storage would become, how impractical hydrogen power would turn out to be, and how much pricing advantage TSLA would have against more established rivals. All unknowns. Looking out two more years, they will say no one could be certain which autonomy company in a very crowded and well-funded field of autonomous efforts would turn out to crack the problem and how valuable it would actually turn out to be.
The same people who missed the boat will say that even robotic experts didn't think Tesla would be successful with Optimus for many decades, that it was a real head-scratcher how they managed to make humanoid robots so desirable, so quickly. People will start out by bitterly observing that Optimus might be able to do menial tasks in a factory but that retail sales amount to toys for rich people. They are just glorified sex toys for wealthy divorcees. That once all the rich people have one or two and the novelty wears off, sales will dry up and then the robotics division will lose money. They will say the robots will not last long enough to justify their high cost and Tesla will never get the price down to be affordable enough for regular people on a budget to own one.
The people who missed the TSLA boat, and who continue to miss the TSLA boat, will never admit how obvious it really was. And the only reason for that will be because they didn't understand what was actually happening. They will say we were "lucky" things worked out for Tesla. Given the current situation, some of you might think the following toast is inappropriate, but I don't so, Cheers to all TSLA longs!
dhanson865
Well-Known Member
wow, that's a blast from the past, take a look at a more recent video and see how smooth it looks. There is not a ton of room to ping pong (like inches on each side of the car at the wheel level (wider at the doors)), if you lose a tire you'll just stop.
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No more Tunnel Chatter here, please.
First, there are lots of other places to do it.
Second, the many strikingly uninformed posts do this thread no credit.
Third, this topic never should have been broached here.
First, there are lots of other places to do it.
Second, the many strikingly uninformed posts do this thread no credit.
Third, this topic never should have been broached here.
And yes, that “please” is a euphemism.
StealthP3D
Well-Known Member
OMG! If you didn't believe Twitter management was stupid before, you need to reappraise. Incredibly embarrassing for Twitter.
⚡️ELECTROMAN⚡️
Village Idiot
That guy's wasted, right?
I mean, they are at a bar, and he's holding a drink, so you guess.
That's not going to save him though. Especially the comment about Elon being "special needs", there's no way he's gonna be able to walk that one back.
I cringed so hard when he started telling the project veritas person about the memo warning about project veritas, he had to feel so bad afterwards when this came out. And they didn't have to keep in the moment where he was saying he'd be so sus if they hadn't met "organically", that seems like unnecessarily twisting the knife on veritas's part (but I'd guess it's typical, based on their reputation).
They're (veritas) of course known for creating deceptively edited videos... but I don't think that's going to help this guy, even if he had access to the uncut footage.
They're (veritas) of course known for creating deceptively edited videos... but I don't think that's going to help this guy, even if he had access to the uncut footage.
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
I doubt it. I think Elon and Tesla will make maximum effort to maintain 30% gross margin. That's what's needed for Elon to earn his final tranche of the 2012 CEO compensation plan before it expires in August. It won't hurt either Elon or Tesla if those shares cost less in August than they did last November.
Paging @The Accountant
thesmokingman
Active Member
After a while I was like huh, and then I felt like reaching thru the monitor and punching that guy in the face. /shrugs
thesmokingman
Active Member
That's usually when their true colors come out.
Gigapress
Trying to be less wrong
In light of what just happened to my hard work on my last post that I hit send on before seeing the mod comment above, I would request that mods consider that a person who sends a long post probably spent a while writing it and therefore may not have seen a relatively recent mod post prohibiting further discussion of the topic. In such a situation, moving of the offending post to a preferred thread would be much nicer than deleting. I love this forum but I am not happy about what just happened.
I would also like to express my opinion that determining whether Loop can actually operate at 100 mph in autonomous mode is directly relevant to Tesla investing. In fact, it objectively has literally orders of magnitude more impact on TSLA valuation than much of what goes undeleted here. This is a question with multi-trillion dollar implications for profits, so I genuinely do not understand that policy and petition that it be changed. Furthermore, if half the grievance from the mods is that many of the prior posts were shockingly misinformed, why delete the one post at the end of it that was by far the most heavily researched and considered? That seems counterproductive.
Loop safety and achievable speed is a topic of great controversy and misinformed speculation, and it has obviously major ramifications for Tesla Network as well as the macroeconomy in general. We have been repeatedly told by Elon that FSD is going to be worth more than car hardware and energy combined. How the heck is it off-topic to have reasonable discussion of Loop, the primary future use case of Tesla robotaxis and soon to be Tesla's number one source of direct product exposure??? The Vegas Loop, by itself, will get more butts in seats in one year of full operation than the word-of-mouth army and showrooms have accomplished cumulatively since day one. 60,000 rides per day, in exclusively Teslas, is over 20 million rides per year. It is hard to overstate how big of a deal this is for Tesla, TSLA and the Investment World.
Very simply, the net present value of cash flows accruing to Tesla per robotaxi manufactured is directly affected by its average speed in service, which is determined mainly by top speed, traffic constraints and energy efficiency, all of which Loop is supposed to solve. As far as the Investment World relevance, the positive impact on the macroeconomy of fundamentally improving urban transportation infrastructure should be obvious.
That fact suggests we could spend a month getting to the bottom of this topic and in doing so accomplish more about understanding Tesla's investment valuation than incessant discussion of minute-by-minute stock price action and the politics du jour.
I would also like to express my opinion that determining whether Loop can actually operate at 100 mph in autonomous mode is directly relevant to Tesla investing. In fact, it objectively has literally orders of magnitude more impact on TSLA valuation than much of what goes undeleted here. This is a question with multi-trillion dollar implications for profits, so I genuinely do not understand that policy and petition that it be changed. Furthermore, if half the grievance from the mods is that many of the prior posts were shockingly misinformed, why delete the one post at the end of it that was by far the most heavily researched and considered? That seems counterproductive.
Loop safety and achievable speed is a topic of great controversy and misinformed speculation, and it has obviously major ramifications for Tesla Network as well as the macroeconomy in general. We have been repeatedly told by Elon that FSD is going to be worth more than car hardware and energy combined. How the heck is it off-topic to have reasonable discussion of Loop, the primary future use case of Tesla robotaxis and soon to be Tesla's number one source of direct product exposure??? The Vegas Loop, by itself, will get more butts in seats in one year of full operation than the word-of-mouth army and showrooms have accomplished cumulatively since day one. 60,000 rides per day, in exclusively Teslas, is over 20 million rides per year. It is hard to overstate how big of a deal this is for Tesla, TSLA and the Investment World.
Very simply, the net present value of cash flows accruing to Tesla per robotaxi manufactured is directly affected by its average speed in service, which is determined mainly by top speed, traffic constraints and energy efficiency, all of which Loop is supposed to solve. As far as the Investment World relevance, the positive impact on the macroeconomy of fundamentally improving urban transportation infrastructure should be obvious.
That fact suggests we could spend a month getting to the bottom of this topic and in doing so accomplish more about understanding Tesla's investment valuation than incessant discussion of minute-by-minute stock price action and the politics du jour.
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