Fair warning, grumpy post incoming.........and this time it's directed at Tesla.
But before I get a ton of disagrees, read the entire post. My grumpiness isn't directed towards all of Tesla.
Shanghai - Q2's production completely out of their control. Shanghai did best they could
Austin - When ramping a brand new cell/pack, totally understandable that it's going slow. And the Shanghai shutdown stalled them on starting 2170 production equipment to Austin.
Berlin - Tad slow but with as much beau acracy as there is over there, it's impossible to tell how much Tesla is being slowed down by outside forces.
But Fremont.......oh Fremont. What a disappointment you've become.
It's been over a year and a half now since the S/X refresh and they still can't get production up to pre-refresh levels and they're not even close. The other disappointment is that it's clear Tesla wasn't nimble enough to reallocate resources to Fremont in Q2 to increase production closer to the max production capacity that Tesla themselves lists. It wasn't battery supply that limited Fremont. Tesla said on the last earnings call that they had a stockpile of batteries. And Tesla had plenty of time/notice to divert chip supplies to Fremont instead of Shanghai. So that tells me it wasn't even in the timeframe of the next year to increase actual production at Fremont to be closer to the capacity that Tesla lists.
At this point, Tesla should just lower that "max capacity" for Fremont and I have a hard time believing a expansion of Fremont is coming anytime soon, definitely not in the next year.........even though 2-3 quarters ago, Tesla themselves were saying Tesla would be expanding Fremont by 50% in the next year.
Overall this of course has no real impact on Tesla going forward. Fremont wasn't going to be a significant part of them reaching 50% growth next year or the year after. But I'm throwing in the towel when it comes to placing any expectations of Fremont going forward. If they can't get S/X production up to even 20k/quarter right now, I don't think they're ever getting S/X back to pre-refresh levels.