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Our friend Bill Wright had something to say on Twitter:

“I can’t even wait for it and I f’n know everything about it…”

When pressed for more info, he responds:

“Game changer”.

Really hope he’s talking about 4680s here…
I follow him, and I know he has inside info. But such tweets, if he's unwilling or unable to share more information, are pointless. He wasn't even replying to a specific tweet or article from which we could maybe infer what he's talking about. So in my opinion, the time we spend talking about his tweet should be proportional to the amount of info it contains... which is zero.

We all already know that there are many exciting things to be announced, and that's without inside info.
 
I will update this Non-GAAP EPS tracker as numbers start to come in. Right now there's a pretty big gap between my number and Gary Black's number. It's likely that Gary has higher production costs from Shanghai lockdown and Berlin/Austin ramp than what I have.
Wall Street at $1.98 which I believe lacks the Bitcoin and Severance charges. To adjust for that, I would take about $0.33 off their number bringing it to $1.65.
My guess is that Wall Street does not change their number for Bitcoin & Severance charges and instead removes the charges from Tesla's results on July 20 to determine if there was a beat or miss on EPS. It would be great to see Tesla's press release on July 20 state, "excluding bitcoin and severance charges, non-GAAP EPS would have been $x.xx."

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In other news, the Resorts World Vegas Loop station looks pretty awesome.


i just spent 40 minutes on the comment section there and I must say, very civilized … no shouting, just factual conversation. is user „rocwurstt“ one of us? Big heads up to him/her , doing a great job with comparisons … great read
 
I follow him, and I know he has inside info. But such tweets, if he's unwilling or unable to share more information, are pointless. He wasn't even replying to a specific tweet or article from which we could maybe infer what he's talking about. So in my opinion, the time we spend talking about his tweet should be proportional to the amount of info it contains... which is zero.

We all already know that there are many exciting things to be announced, and that's without inside info.

Agreed. Johnna Crider (great gal!) did practically the same thing with her tease about 'extra info' coming after the July 1st drop of her podcast with Elon:

Johnna Crider on Twitter: "A big change is coming on July 1 (not the Elon interview) so I’ll announce it a couple of days after." / Twitter

Instead, we should be focused on the Prize, ie: the logistics required to get to 15TWh/yr steady-state bty production. How many Great Pyramids of Giza of finished battery cells per month is that? How many tons mining that goal, how much by Tesla, what exponentials are needed to make this happen?

If only there was a Secret Master Plan Part 3 imminent... or, CAT MINES!

Mining-Mining.jpg


Cheers!
 
Ok, I know nothing about international taxes.

But I'm not pleased about how tech/internet companies avoid paying taxes in the countries where they actually make the profit so when this was a hot topic a few years back I read a lot of articles about how so many companies somehow makes all their profits in countries with the lowest taxes. Like all European profits ending up in Ireland or Luxembourg where almost none of the profit originates.

If I remember correctly one way to do this was transferring patents to their divisions in those countries and then having them charge their divisions in higher taxed countries for using those patents.

At the same time, or because of this, companies like Apple have a problem with most of their profits now being in foreign countries and they can't transfer those profits to the US easily/cheaply.

Thinking about this how is it possible that Tesla would allow a US tax deferments worth billions to expire worthless when they very likely prefer to have profits in the US. Shouldn't Tesla be able to move profits between countries by charging internally for patent use etc. Why would Tesla not internally charge every car not made in the US several thousand USD extra for using patents or whatever held by the US division. Thus being profitable in the US and able to use those deferments and having the profits in the US instead of wherever. Once the deferments are used up they could go back to placing profits where it's taxed the least again.

I'm pretty sure, actually I am sure, that Tesla has people that knows taxes better than me. But they probably don't have time to explain this to me so can anyone else tell me what's different in Teslas situation?

And yes, I see how pathetic I am wanting Tesla to do what I don't like other companies to do.
In no way am I a CPA (international nor otherwise), but it seems this runs into a few issues:

1. Licensing cannot be turned on/off like a faucet
2. Licensing cost must be rational in relation to income from the licensed IP

As regards Tesla's business:
1. China needs a big chunk of operating cash to buffer accounts receivable/ payable
2. China needs cash for expansion

Tesla Shanghai currently gets a more favorable 15% corporate tax rate through 2023 vs the US rate.
Tesla US profits should soar with Texas coming on-line (though still need to burn through carry over loss)

https://www.irs.gov/pub/int_practice_units/ISO9411_02_03.pdf
 
In EU, for older cars like my 2017 MX, there's a small hardware mod that's done by the mobile technician to enable CCS, maybe it's the same in the US?
This reminded me that not all CCS are the same. Hopefully it's relatively easy to swap older cars to new standards (as per above) or to different country standards/adapters for cross-border travel or second-hand vehicle trade to Africa & other markets (key for worldwide ICE replacement).
 

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Agreed. Johnna Crider (great gal!) did practically the same thing with her tease about 'extra info' coming after the July 1st drop of her podcast with Elon:

Johnna Crider on Twitter: "A big change is coming on July 1 (not the Elon interview) so I’ll announce it a couple of days after." / Twitter

Instead, we should be focused on the Prize, ie: the logistics required to get to 15TWh/yr steady-state bty production. How many Great Pyramids of Giza of finished battery cells per month is that? How many tons mining that goal, how much by Tesla, what exponentials are needed to make this happen?

If only there was a Secret Master Plan Part 3 imminent... or, CAT MINES!

Mining-Mining.jpg


Cheers!
Not everything is about Elon/ Tesla (nor did she claim in that Tweet that it was):
Johnna's news was her leaving leaving her CleanTechnica and joining Teslarati as a senior writer.
 
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I follow him, and I know he has inside info. But such tweets, if he's unwilling or unable to share more information, are pointless. He wasn't even replying to a specific tweet or article from which we could maybe infer what he's talking about. So in my opinion, the time we spend talking about his tweet should be proportional to the amount of info it contains... which is zero.

We all already know that there are many exciting things to be announced, and that's without inside info.
Just to be clear we are going to leave this rabbit hole alone? Just keep walking and not even take a peek and look down it? 😆
 
In EU, for older cars like my 2017 MX, there's a small hardware mod that's done by the mobile technician to enable CCS, maybe it's the same in the US?

Already discussed here, with link to the very long thread on the DIY for this--- requires swapping the charge port ECU, a custom 3rd party wiring harness, and reinstalling the cars firmware currently. So physically doable for sure, but not trivial.



This reminded me that not all CCS are the same. Hopefully it's relatively easy to swap older cars to new standards (as per above) or to different country standards/adapters for cross-border travel or second-hand vehicle trade to Africa & other markets (key for worldwide ICE replacement).

CCS 1 and 2 are very different- for quite a while many folks speculated we might never see a Tesla->CCS adapter in NA due to how much more complex to adapt it was than the EU version of the standard and certain restrictions in the standard on adapters.... 1 to 2 adapters (and vice versa) do exist though.
 
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This reminded me that not all CCS are the same. Hopefully it's relatively easy to swap older cars to new standards (as per above) or to different country standards/adapters for cross-border travel or second-hand vehicle trade to Africa & other markets (key for worldwide ICE replacement).
Correct, the Standards Committee in each country (read: the manufacturers that stand to profit from exclusivity) make standards to ensure other countries' manufacturers will have to retool to sell their CCS.
 
Botched would have been a car that nobody wanted. Far from it. People are waiting & paying upwards of $20k more from initial release units.

My ‘22 Plaid despite its delivery day tribulations is the best car I’ve ever owned 3 months into it. Everyone that has seen it, red with Stealth PPF, loves it. Back are the days of lookie loos, waves, thumbs up, nods, and what not. No one can deny it is a beast.

Could they have done a better job of the rollout and phase in of lights and tilt? Damn right. I waited 18 months having ordered the original vaporcar, Plaid+.

But it’s here now. And damn, she is fine.

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Nice license plate! Nice car, nearly a twin of mine, a '21 with 19" (in 'homage' to bad road maintenance. Mine, delivered in September '21 has had precisely zero defects. My detailer said at the time that even Refresh Tesla paint has improved markedly.

Based on early discussions from Tesla and Elon ( I haven't looked them up to verify my memory) I recall the part count on Refresh S was reduced by 'a few hundred'. Some complexities remain on Plaid; those carbon fiber wrappings must be expensive. On balance I suspect the production cost has reduced substantially. Otherwise, although it has not been stated officially, my suspicion is that the various sound system components (including active noise reduction and the rear controls plus the BMS, three motor controls etc all make this car semiconductor intensive. With shortages, which would you prefer, a few S's and a few X's, or a few dozen Y's or 3's.

I would very much like to know about those tradeoffs. Probably late next year or so. we'll have 4680's and more improvements yielding higher volumes. Of course, Cybertruck and Semi will be given priority over our toys. As an investor I must agree. As an enthusiast, not so much.

(if some of you have better information on this, I'd like to know. I'm ignoring Munro, since this is never likely to be high volume anyway)
 
Botched would have been a car that nobody wanted. Far from it. People are waiting & paying upwards of $20k more from initial release units.

My ‘22 Plaid despite its delivery day tribulations is the best car I’ve ever owned 3 months into it. Everyone that has seen it, red with Stealth PPF, loves it. Back are the days of lookie loos, waves, thumbs up, nods, and what not. No one can deny it is a beast.

Could they have done a better job of the rollout and phase in of lights and tilt? Damn right. I waited 18 months having ordered the original vaporcar, Plaid+.

But it’s here now. And damn, she is fine.

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Looks great...
(So your the one that got my licence plate)
 
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Agreed. Johnna Crider (great gal!) did practically the same thing with her tease about 'extra info' coming after the July 1st drop of her podcast with Elon:

Johnna Crider on Twitter: "A big change is coming on July 1 (not the Elon interview) so I’ll announce it a couple of days after." / Twitter

Instead, we should be focused on the Prize, ie: the logistics required to get to 15TWh/yr steady-state bty production. How many Great Pyramids of Giza of finished battery cells per month is that? How many tons mining that goal, how much by Tesla, what exponentials are needed to make this happen?

If only there was a Secret Master Plan Part 3 imminent... or, CAT MINES!

Mining-Mining.jpg


Cheers!
I am disappointed with this newly publicised cat allegiance.

Very very very very very very disappointed.
 
Agreed. Johnna Crider (great gal!) did practically the same thing with her tease about 'extra info' coming after the July 1st drop of her podcast with Elon:

Johnna Crider on Twitter: "A big change is coming on July 1 (not the Elon interview) so I’ll announce it a couple of days after." / Twitter

Instead, we should be focused on the Prize, ie: the logistics required to get to 15TWh/yr steady-state bty production. How many Great Pyramids of Giza of finished battery cells per month is that? How many tons mining that goal, how much by Tesla, what exponentials are needed to make this happen?

If only there was a Secret Master Plan Part 3 imminent... or, CAT MINES!

Mining-Mining.jpg


Cheers!

Super secret information is useless, what is much more material is knowing how battery production is going. That is a gold mine because everything will need batteries from power walls, utility load balancing, and yes even cars.
 
Ok, I know nothing about international taxes.

But I'm not pleased about how tech/internet companies avoid paying taxes in the countries where they actually make the profit so when this was a hot topic a few years back I read a lot of articles about how so many companies somehow makes all their profits in countries with the lowest taxes. Like all European profits ending up in Ireland or Luxembourg where almost none of the profit originates.

...

I'm pretty sure, actually I am sure, that Tesla has people that knows taxes better than me. But they probably don't have time to explain this to me so can anyone else tell me what's different in Teslas situation?

And yes, I see how pathetic I am wanting Tesla to do what I don't like other companies to do.
There are several here including @The Accountant who have spent years in international business, including tax management. ADAIK, we do not have explicitly an international tax accountant here. That is an arcane and weirdly complex world. FWIW, for a few years I personally had >30 annual tax returns to file. Tax accountants did it all, I signed but never really understood the numbers. My employer during those years had hundreds of such returns.

The preceding paragraph is NOT evidence of my competence nor knowledge, just copious exposure. That said, it is never quite so simple as locating domicile of intellectual property in a low tax area, although that plays a part. There are highly complex decisions regarding domicile of employment, operating costs and minimization of unhedged foreign exchange risk. The last point is one reason why companies such as Apple, Tesla and many others have debt to balance some foreign investments, even take debt in the home currency to pay dividends (egg, AAPL) rather than repatriate FX that would yield higher cost and higher ta consequences, not to mention transaction costs.

There is an accounting concept called "coterminous funding" :.https://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/coterminous.asp
The explanation is domestic US, but applies to large capital projects in FX as well. A similar process is often used to stabilize foreign sales effects on the P&L. Apple, famously (among seriously nerdy accounting and international business types, anyway) hedged expected revenues in many currencies that have large revenues and lower expenses (e.g. Brazilian Real, Israeli Shekel, and dozens of others), All those are dwarfed by two RMB ("The peoples currency") and the Euro. That is true for both Tesla and Apple BTW.

So, why Ireland? The ill-informed and probably jealous other Euro countries and the US, tend to want there to be some nefarious motive for that. There is not, it's explained easily within the structure of the Euro itself.
If anybody cares to know the details just search for IBAN, Euro and SWIFT. Once IBAN, (a standard international single code that identifies receiving bank and account number) was invented in 1997 to implement the Euro in 1999, suddenly any Eurozone account to transfer funds to any other Eurozone account instantly and mostly free. Ireland is a Euro member, but has very low corporate taxes, so the Euro businesses stormed to ireland, where they remain. Ireland has thrived ever since. Nothing nefarious.

Why? Because the Eurozone members could not agree their tax policies but did accept entirely free transfers. Thus quite rapidly after 1997 companies prepared, and in 2000 there was a mad rush to Ireland, including even huge aircraft leasing companies. Tesla is a beneficiary of all this.

There is major political question in the EU about the appropriateness of Ireland doing so well, at the expense of Germany and France mostly. Of course it hit the UK peripherally but they were never in the Euro so they began losing momentum in the post-Euro world.

This all is very much on-topic because it explains in a superficial way how and why Tesla is optimizing its FX risks.

(note: anybody who really wants to know more can PM me. This is quite arcane, but is fundamental to global economies smooth functioning. Be careful with internet research on the subject; there is enormous FUD on the subject (hint: if you see "US control" or anything similar you know it's untrue)
 
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Maybe they've decided to put the expansion in Austin... hate to reference Fred, but interesting:

Perhaps I am reading things differently, but I read the permit as they are asking to build out WITHIN the existing GigaFactory General Assembly 2 and 3. Not a new, separate building.

My gut tells me this is for the CyberTruk, and lines up time-wise perfectly with mid-2023 production.

I think Fred is very wrong in his interpretation.