Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[betstarship]

These days, I'm finding myself being perfectly happy saying I got extremely lucky in investing and just shutting the heck up.

It took a long time, and a lot of self-made victory laps, and some bad juju to do that though.

 

[Singuy]

It might be interesting to learn Elon's opinion of this new political party.

Probably designed to get Elon's attention. Reminds me of cum rocket flocky coins..just to get Elon's attention.

 

[Usain]

Have it say "Would you like some swag?" and if they say Yes it grabs a bag and hands it to them. If they say No it says "It's good stuff, are you sure?" and at that point it grabs a bag but doesn't hand it to them unless they reach for it.

Simple decision tree and only needs to know how to say two things and do two general motions + the grab and release concepts.

If you want to polish the routine you can add a "Have a nice day" or "Enjoy the presentation" after the bag release on the handoff. But even if it was a wordless handoff and it got the first statement(s) right I'd call it a win.

edit: Oh and to really show this off, have several of them standing behind a table, all the swag on another table behind them. A ballet of Optimus SubPrimes going back and forth to grab a bag for people going by.

And when I say ballet, it's totally boring normal movement you'd expect from a bored teenager, just quietly efficiently doing the job. The only thing that makes it remotely ballet like is the line of them doing the same motions.

And then when things get slow at the swag table they just sit around and gossip.

 

[Prunesquallor]

Nah. Optimus isn't about sports and physical agility. It's about repetitive boring labor.

Have it pass out swag bags to all attendees when they arrive.

Or respond to analysts’ questions during quarterlies.

 

[Ogre]

Or respond to analysts’ questions during quarterlies.

C'mon, that's a low bar, they solved that 55 years ago.

And then when things get slow at the swag table they just sit around and gossip.

That's old-word. A modern bot (bored teenager) would have their phone out the whole time and barely look up even when doing their job.

 

[damonbrodie]

Freemont was at 1666 cars per day months ago. Those castings will be gone in no time just there. I think.

If they are for Fremont then why are they building up such an excess inventory? (they would build them more JIT if it was). No, I think these are going somewhere - and I'm guessing Berlin.

 

[Prunesquallor]

Today ARKK is trading at levels they first reached May 2018 (four years, two months ago) and this is including a substantial position in TSLA which rocketed from $55 to $850 during the same time frame). They got one time lucky with Tesla. Plain and simple. Anyone still holding ARK funds should seriously think about cutting your losses and buying TSLA before the big run up.

They got lucky with a few things at the worst of the pandemic - Zoom, Peloton, Square, a bunch of genomics. That’s when I modestly invested, and I doubled my money. They peaked hard and fell hard. I got out after 15% drop from the peak and put it in Tesla.

Still have one of the cool polo shirts, though.

 

[redan]

For what it's worth with respect to the inflation discussion:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1552814045354409985

 

[Cattledog]

Imagine if Cathie sold all her picks near the top. Could have been a legendary investor. Instead she doubled down at the top.....

Well, to her credit, some of her stocks lost 50% and she doubled down and now they're down 80%, so there's definitely investment dexterity there.

 

[OrthoSurg]

Crazy how much money/value ARK has lost at this point with their strategy of selling TSLA shares to buy up shares of these other stocks. We had this discussion a few months ago and said this exact scenario was likely to play out.

« Half down our winners and double down our losers till we reach zero » -ARKK

 

[GOVA]

If they are for Fremont then why are they building up such an excess inventory? (they would build them more JIT if it was). No, I think these are going somewhere - and I'm guessing Berlin.

I see that this is a lot, but how do you know this is excess? If 1600 cars per day is accurate, 1600front/1600rear castings are needed. Per day. They just store it outside and use up very quickly. It is only an undeducated guess, so who knows.

 

[MC3OZ]

Green hydrogen won't be cheaper than grey/brown hydrogen for as far as the eye can see (unless fossil fuels are hit with stiff excise taxes).
Battery electric is already cheaper than brown hydrogen.

Hydrogen is an answer looking for a problem. It's dumb.

Ammonia has a lot of uses and it is currently made with Methane.

Hydrogen/ammonia for land based transport is dumb,

IMO the real question is when Green Ammonia displaces Fossil Ammonia.

 

[MC3OZ]

Given the cell can needs to be robust enough to deal with electrolyte and provide strength, I suspect it's not difficult to find a solvent that it can withstand capable of dissolving whatever composition the foam may be.

That's not to say cell replacement becomes easy....

In the case of Tesla they already know what the foam is made of, and can test a sample in a test tube in a lab.

Others can break off a piece and, run tests on it.

My doubt is whether a 3rd party could refurbish the pack to the standard that it could get a warranty as a structural pack.

Removing the cells, testing them individually then selling them for use in other applications seems possible,

 

[MC3OZ]

These have to be for Austin as well? Maybe even Berlin?

I speculated previously that if they were going to switch to also making front castings at Fremont, stockpiling a batch of rear castings is a good first step.

Austin and Berlin both have more than 2 casting machines, but it all depends on what the slowest step in any particular ramp is.

 

[Words of HABIT]

Some people never learn.

...and to think people are paying fees for the privilege to lose money faster than an appleorghini.

 

[Ogre]

For what it's worth with respect to the inflation discussion:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1552814045354409985

The sort of Tweet nobody complains about.

 

[bkp_duke]

Rob Maurer with an excellent breakdown of the new Clean Car Rebates (notice I didn't say EV):

EDIT - basically PHEVs with battery packs as small as 7kWh can qualify for the full credit, as long as they are assembled in North America, and sufficient source the battery minerals from the USA or a "free trade" partner (scales up over time).

Yeah, Toyota is going to LOVE this bill.

 

[Drezil]

Arkk keeps swinging and missing. Tdoc was down 17% from earnings yesterday and Roku down 25% today. Should have just stuck with Tesla.

They should habe bought NKLA! Up 6% or so today..
They were at 6.50 - that is 40% more than the 4.5 low some weeks ago

Bit I'm not touching that stock with a 10-foot-pole...

 

[madodel]

Rob Maurer with an excellent breakdown of the new Clean Car Rebates (notice I didn't say EV):

EDIT - basically PHEVs with battery packs as small as 7kWh can qualify for the full credit, as long as they are assembled in North America, and sufficient source the battery minerals from the USA or a "free trade" partner (scales up over time).

Yeah, Toyota is going to LOVE this bill.

I wonder if Manchin has a lot of Toyota stock?

 

[Drezil]

Imagine if Cathie sold all her picks near the top. Could have been a legendary investor. Instead she doubled down at the top.....

Could she?
I think all funds in that etf have to stay invested - so if people buy the ETF she has to buy basically everything in it. If people sell the etf she has to liquidate.

I doubt people would invest in an ETF when the top holding is "USD waiting to be deployed"