Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[CLK350]

Interesting news - could it have been the significant factor maintaining the SP up recently?

" Breaking News: Natixis - one of largest fund in the world with AUM of $1.4 trillion recently bought 15 million shs of $TSLA value $13.5b"

Edit: looked up Natixis, part of BPCE " .. Groupe BPCE is the second-largest banking group in France. Through its 100,000 staff, the group serves 36 million customers - individuals, professionals, companies, investors and local government bodies - around the world. It operates in the retail bnaking and insurance fields in France via its wwo major networks, Banque Populaire and Caisse d'Epargne, along with Banque Palatine and Oney. It also pursues its actvities worldwide with the asset & wealth management services provided by Natixis Investment Managers and the wholesale banking expertise of Natixis Corporate & Investment Banking. " .. Though Natixis plays the ESG game, at least they don't need to abide by the silly Moody's / S&P Global credit ratings which prevent large US institutions from investing in Tesla..

Another "weird" (not really, if you think about it) aspect of Tesla - being slowed down, nearly bankrupted by our own "government & financial elites", only to be rescued by China. And still being ignored as much as possible by our POTUS.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1558447698013028352

 

[Buckminster]

I don’t wonder because it didn’t happen and thus things have gone as they have. As I already mentioned, just because you have money doesn’t increase your odds of hanging onto the money, using it effectively, or succeeding.

Having to fight for every single day of existence is an exceedingly important reason Tesla succeeded. It forced them to be creative, scrappy, efficient, innovative etc…. Rivian not having to experience that is not in fact an advantage. It’s a bottomless pit of missed opportunity to learn. The road less traveled offers untold wisdom.

Sacks said something similar today. Vision fund giving too much dough meant that cash became the start-ups' usp rather than their employees etc. They are then doomed to fail.

 

[StealthP3D]

I have a large chunk set aside (it was 1/3, now it's >1/2 because TSLA has gone down) as cash (like in a savings account) because that's what's required to keep my wife happy. Keeping my wife happy is perhaps my most important investment. I've been retired over a decade now, and she for longer.

Crazy! That makes your wife a very expensive woman!

Maybe hypnosis could help her. That would make any hypnotist able to get her to see the light worth a lot of money! Does she understand that cash is even riskier than good stocks? Stocks have more volatility, which is why I keep two years living expenses around at all times, but cash carries more long-term risk.

 

[aronth5]

25 US Supercharger permits filed so far in August. (Supercharge.info)
Why spend money on advertising when your brand will be plastered all over the country. Just another example of Legacy auto dropping the ball.
When I talk with people most still have never looked inside a Tesla but acknowledge they have seen the Superchargers.

 

[StealthP3D]

Very good and well thought out post, Stealth. To pull the "health and age" thread a bit more I would point out is that many believe "time>money" (at least once you have a reasonable sum of the latter). Over on another forum I am on, folks call it "OMY"ing. This occurs when they have enough money to retire, but then work "One More Year" (aka OMY) to be sure...and then that turns into two more years...and then three more years, etc. While some are glad they did stockpile a bit more, many look back in regret because the one thing that money can't buy is more years...especially more HEALTHY years. More healthy years to "do stuff", more years to spend with family and loved ones, etc. It's always a balancing act....if only my crystal ball were working better I'd know my own "balance" point!

True, but I was not telling people to not enjoy life, quite the opposite. I was recommending they not spend lavishly too early in life because life is better if you know you have more than you need. And the power of compounding rewards you. Sorry if I wasn't clear about that. And, yes, when to "retire" is a separate but related question. If someone's job is negatively impacting their quality of life, I would suggest trying to fix that, maybe by retiring or changing careers if the finances were not strong enough. Every situation is unique but spending too much too early in life can definitely make it harder to retire when you want.

 

[Skryll]

Rivian just needs enough cash to build two plants, and enough good design to sell the outpuit of those two plants.

What's better than two plants at negative gross margin ? One plant at positive gross margin. The point being, making cars at volume and have cars people love needs to be paired with cost efficiency of said cars production to be getting better as well.

The quality of the machine that makes the machine is even more important than the quality of the machine it produces. And both need to be iterated and improved upon continuously.

That's why teslas is investing so much into radical changes like structural battery pack, gigapress etc

 

[Singuy]

Rivian just needs enough cash to build two plants, and enough good design to sell the outpuit of those two plants. That doesn't make RIVN a great stock, but getting to positive cash flow and some profitability seems like the most likely outcome.

Rivian is the one of the group that is not undercapitalized. Staying in business long enough to figure it out is often the key.

Rivian went big with their plans and capitalization. I'm sure that plan came from the VCs. They were right.

There's really zero excuse to lose this much money when Tesla had every disadvantage while Rivian enjoys all the advantages today. Did people forget just how expensive lithium ion battery packs were back in 2013? Tesla with the help of Panasonic massively drove the price of battery packs down that all these new start ups can enjoy, while expanding the supply chain. However Tesla managed to turn a positive gross margin a decade ago having similar ASP while these new start ups are far from any kind of positive gm.

 

[StealthP3D]

Well some of us have been putting off major purchases like ya know a home, for many years . Like 7+ years now . I’ll likely cash out half of my shares when TSLA reaches a 2.5 trillion valuation. There’s plenty to do/buy with that 50% cash out.

Shocking! I don't think you ever told us you were homeless! My condolences.

You know you can get a loan for things like that?

 

[petit_bateau]

The real competition is Nio/Byd/Xpeng **

**not in the US after congress nuked their ability to get tax credit and they have zero supporting infrastructure and brand recognition. We have zero evidence that Americans are lining up to buy a Chinese made car.

This US protectionist subsidy will only be effective if the cost advantage of a China-made EV is less than $5-10k away from a US-made EV. The jury is out, but the last time the US ran a similar experiment the Japanese cleaned up.

Good point, @cab .

Hmm, I'm trying to think of the strategy of why Chinese EV manufacturers would want to partner with a legacy US OEM, with their bloated admins, staid R&D depts., and rigid union contracts. Two that I can think of off the top of my head:

1. Brand name recognition
2. Wide, established sales (dealer) network

Is it worth buying that loss leader and difficult change imperative to get those two benefits? We'll see. So glad Tesla is not in that predicament (between a rock and a hard place).

Not sure how that would play vis-a-vis the made-in-America credits of the latest EV subsidies.

There are plenty of dead Western brands in the history bin that once thought they had positive value. You only have to look at the branding of most US autos abroad to realise that the management teams are aware of the concept of negative brand value. The primary honourable exception is Ford.

 

[Blue horseshoe]

Interesting news - could it have been the significant factor maintaining the SP up recently?

" Breaking News: Natixis - one of largest fund in the world with AUM of $1.4 trillion recently bought 15 million shs of $TSLA value $13.5b"

Edit: looked up Natixis, part of BPCE " .. Groupe BPCE is the second-largest banking group in France. Through its 100,000 staff, the group serves 36 million customers - individuals, professionals, companies, investors and local government bodies - around the world. It operates in the retail bnaking and insurance fields in France via its wwo major networks, Banque Populaire and Caisse d'Epargne, along with Banque Palatine and Oney. It also pursues its actvities worldwide with the asset & wealth management services provided by Natixis Investment Managers and the wholesale banking expertise of Natixis Corporate & Investment Banking. " .. Though Natixis plays the ESG game, at least they don't need to abide by the silly Moody's / S&P Global credit ratings which prevent large US institutions from investing in Tesla..

Another "weird" (not really, if you think about it) aspect of Tesla - being slowed down, nearly bankrupted by our own "government & financial elites", only to be rescued by China. And still being ignored as much as possible by our POTUS.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1558447698013028352

Is this even legit? No source cited and nothing pops up in a Google search.

 

[dhrivnak]

@cab
to me, the "inflation reduction act" seems a bit of a watered down "Green New Deal" except that set of words is an anathema to many short sighted folks.

(a whole bunch of farmers in Virginia, last year, managed to turn down a massive Solar farm on what was extremely poor farmland, lots of shale etc right next to the intersections of Interstate 66 and Interstate 81 due to effective scare tactics, refusing free money to manufacture "free" (virtually zero marginal cost)(V0MC) energy from free sunlight)

Its hastening the switch to renewable energy, and EV's with their much higher efficiency of energy use, Federal tax credits lasting 10 years for Renewable Energy, EV's and such

If you look at

Search results | Home

www.bp.com

and do a simple download of the Excel file and merely look at the installed base of Solar and Wind, renewable energy, a few quite obvious things pop out

The US and China combined have around 50%+ of the installed base of Wind and Solar, renewable energy and rapidly growing
(it's really nice that PV was around $1,600 - $1,800 a watt around 1956, (66 years ago) a bit over $100 a watt ~1974 (~45-50yrs ago) and ow is around 0.20 (20 cents a watt)

over 400 gigwatts of PV installed in China and the US (~47%) out of 843 gigawatts BUT note the growth rates
View attachment 840551

over 460 gigwatts of Wind installed in China and the US (56%+) out of 824 gigawatts and also note growth rates

View attachment 840552

So around 1,670 gigawatts of RE installed, very nice growth rates (which mean jobs for one thing, cleaner, cheaper energy for another, AND the world passed 10% renewable energy from virtually NIL 20 years ago, so with luck and work, 100% by 2036 and 200% by 2041.

Additionally ICE =>wastes<= 70% - 80% of the "use once and pollute the planet" energy, and losses in heat and noise
the =>manufactured<= "free" (V0MC) used in EV's is around 80% efficient, ie around 3-4 times as efficient

The fossil fuel dinosaurs are fighting this some more than others

cheers

Just be careful on quoting such low solar prices, and I hope it is temporary, but solar has INCREASED about 30% this year. I would LOVE the get panels at $.40/watt as $.20/watt is a pipe dream. We currently must pay at least $.55/watt just for the panels.

 

[Webeevdrivers]

25 US Supercharger permits filed so far in August. (Supercharge.info)
Why spend money on advertising when your brand will be plastered all over the country. Just another example of Legacy auto dropping the ball.
When I talk with people most still have never looked inside a Tesla but acknowledge they have seen the Superchargers.

I wonder if those will be the new V4’s that will supposedly also be open to non teslas? (In the US at least). Is that deal done?

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Shocking! I don't think you ever told us you were homeless! My condolences.

You know you can get a loan for things like that?

Yeah…….have you seen the price of lakefront homes here in Seattle?

Considering the relation of my income to my net worth from Tesla and other investments, it would be practically impossible to get a loan that covers even half the cost of the home.

TSLA at a 2.5 trillion valuation allows me to pay for all that and still keep half of my shares….I’d be perfectly content with that scenario

 

[CLK350]

Is this even legit? No source cited and nothing pops up in a Google search.

Good point - that would be a rather bad stunt pulled by the Twitter poster. Would amend "pending confirmation" but too late - thanks for the caveat.

 

[The Accountant]

Is this even legit? No source cited and nothing pops up in a Google search.

In researching Natixis, I found one nice write-up on their site about Emotional Intelligence (EQ). Link here: Natixis on EQ

Here is an excerpt:
Many well-known leaders in business, sports and politics score very highly in emotional intelligence, including business leaders Jeff Bezos, Richard Branson, and Elon Musk. They are able to read those around them, adapt messaging to their audience appropriately, and passionately drive initiatives forward.

In a now famous email to staff at Tesla, Elon Musk, in responding to worker safety issues, wrote: “No words can express how much I care about your safety and wellbeing. I’m meeting with the safety team every week and would like to meet every injured person as soon as they are well so that I can understand from them exactly what we need to do to make it better. At Tesla, we lead from the front line, not from some safe and comfortable ivory tower. Managers must always put their team’s safety above their own.”

Musk and Branson clearly think and act in an emotionally intelligent manner, which endears them to their staffers, and one can assume also to their business partners, and ultimately, their customers.

 

[MC3OZ]

FTFY

The lines really can't be "converted". The number of steps and robots on the 3 line is substantially greater than on the Y line. There just isn't the physical space to convert a Y line into a 3 line, not unless you release a new "version" of the car built with casting. Now, if Tesla did convert a 3 line to use castings (HUGE IF there - this would require either more casting machines, or swapping molds, which is not trivial), then in theory they could leverage some space savings, as it looks like the number of robots on a Y line such as Austin (front+rear casts) is 1/3 to 1/4 that on the Fremont 3 line.

View attachment 840590

I also think casting machines are a limitation. With 2 casting machines they could make front and rear castings for 5,000 Model Ys per week.That is the next step.

Install 2 more casting machines at Fremont and they could make front and rear castings for 5,000 Model 3s per week, but a fair amount of engineering, making of molds, rejigging of the production line etc is needed.

Doing Model Y first or some clever reorganisation may free up the space to build a parallel Model 3 line.

But Fremont always looks like a game of Tetris about to go off the rails.

 

[Prunesquallor]

I think we knew, but MegaPack XL factory at Lathrop, CATL LFP at Shanghai and US.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1558574992702353408

 

[aronth5]

I wonder if those will be the new V4’s that will supposedly also be open to non teslas? (In the US at least). Is that deal done?

I'm not sure but Tesla is certainly moving in that direction. Here is a link to a recent permit application for Danvers, Mass with reference to H4. The Op has a great record in following supercharger implementations. Check out Tesla's document.
Supercharger - Danvers, MA

 

[SunCatcher]

Is this even legit? No source cited and nothing pops up in a Google search.

​

https://fintel.io/i/natixis

32% of their portfolio. Pretty gutsy.

Top Increases This Quarter​

We use the change in the portfolio allocation because this is the most meaningful metric. Changes can be due to trades or changes in share prices.

Security	Shares (MM)	Value (MM$)	Portfolio %	ΔPortfolio %
TSLA / Tesla Motors, Inc.	15.27	10,413.46	32.5797	30.7219
BMY / Bristol-Myers Squibb Co	5.68	436.44	1.3654	1.1637
GOOGL / Alphabet Inc	0.26	563.65	1.7634	0.6962
XEL / Xcel Energy Inc	2.95	208.37	0.6519	0.5307
DTE / DTE Energy Co	1.24	156.68	0.4902	0.4497
NI / NiSource Inc.	3.80	112.04	0.3505	0.2644
ICE / Intercontinental Exchange Inc	0.89	83.72	0.2619	0.2110
ET / Energy Transfer LP	35.74	356.75	1.1161	0.2101
JPM / JPMorgan Chase & Co.	1.81	204.60	0.6401	0.1878

 

[CLK350]

Is this even legit? No source cited and nothing pops up in a Google search.

Could well be a hoax meant to garner views. especially as he posted to 10 or so influential folks ( Elon, Gary Black, Sawyer Meritt etc ) and none of them retweeted it. The latest information about major TSLA shareholders lists Natixis a long way down the list, with half a million shares only.
Of course they *could* have been buying recently, and the poster had private information (via a Natixis contact in Israel where he's located).

Time will tell, but not looking great re creds. Unless someone sues him for "counter FUD" LOL

Edit: thanks Suncatcher for the superfast confirmation - we do have the best here!

Sooo, looking good for Monday, possibly.

My earlier post, for reference, now with caveat as to credibility.

Interesting news - could it have been the significant factor maintaining the SP up recently?

" Breaking News: Natixis - one of largest fund in the world with AUM of $1.4 trillion recently bought 15 million shs of $TSLA value $13.5b"