Estimates I have seen estimate Walmart US sales of China origin goods at between 65 and 80%.A Walmart isn't big enough to put battery factory inside...
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
Well, I agree with you on finding it difficult to invest in anything else other than TSLA.
With that said, it matters how you see sustainability playing out. Is it just one company completely dominating 100% of two $3T industries in transport and utilitization? Or are there other players in the space when this market is saturated? If so, who? Also, at how much of the market?
The Accountant
Active Member
I have seen many start-up entrepreneurs get bored with the details of operating a business but Elon appears to be different. His interest in manufacturing details and pushing the envelope on manufacturing innovation keeps his interest. I also think the move into AI brings a new area of interest and growth for Elon.
EDIT: also, seeing Elon about to publish "Master Plan 3" indicates he continues to plan the future of Tesla and he is likely included in that future.
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I don't see any reason for the Cybertruck to be relatively inexpensive. It will more likely be relatively high margin.
But I agree that I don't see a huge upside for RIVN. I have an R1T preorder, but I would not touch the stock.
I think Ford will do well against both Tesla and RIVN. But its a huge market segment. Cybertruck will enlarge the segment.
jkirkwood001
Active Member
Good point, @cab .
Hmm, I'm trying to think of the strategy of why Chinese EV manufacturers would want to partner with a legacy US OEM, with their bloated admins, staid R&D depts., and rigid union contracts. Two that I can think of off the top of my head:
- Brand name recognition
- Wide, established sales (dealer) network
Not sure how that would play vis-a-vis the made-in-America credits of the latest EV subsidies.
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Factually is it not interesting that a Megapack can be carried on a US Class 8 vehicle anywhere there is enough road for one of those to go? Other than Tesla and BYD IIRC there are no others whose battery solutions are sufficiently modular to allow for that.He can donate-in-kind a Megapack to the Paxson Community Association, any time he wants (with associated 260-300 solar panels as well). That will be necessary, anyway, for the EVification of the Richardson and Denali Highways.
I just need to clear that with the PCA Presiden…..Oops, I just did!
I suspect the PCA might not be high on a charity list but it might be eligible under the newly passed US regulations. Seriously I do think your time is soon to come. Are you watching the new rules? As PCA President you are certainly the Paxson authority, aren't you?
If he wanted out, he could not have done it any better than the two sales he made. Especially considering the price of the first tranche he sold, paying twitter a billion dollar penalty to twitter is not important.
Not considering that Musk perhaps prefers holding cash instead of TSLA isn't objective. It's being sure that Musk just happened to stumble into his current portfolio.
I'm not sure about his current incentive package but he is certainly getting a lot more TSLA options in the future.
The major Chinese OEMs already build many vehicles for global OEMs. Some, like Mercedes Benz have some of their EV's made in China. Basically any good Chinese OEM that wants an alliance with a non-Chinese OEM already has JV or other cooperation. Check out non-NA countries with large auto markets and fairly easy access. You've find Chinese brands are already prominent. I took an Uber yesterday in a LIfan (BTW they are Chinese also-ran, perhaps the Chinese equivalent of Kaiser in the US. The Chinese already need serious local content rules in many markets because of their strong commitment to market expansion. On a non-Chinese scale who else is doing anything like that now? Oh, yes, most of them are closing factories because they cannot compete well enough.
bkp_duke
Well-Known Member
Elon covered this about 1 year ago in an interview with Sandy Munroe. Elon stated that basically the Model 3 production lines are going as fast as possible, and there is no time to take them down (probably for 1-2 months for a change this big) in order to re-work everything to use castings. He said he would like to do it, but it's not feasible until there is a slack in demand that allows for production downtime.
It is definitely getting "complicated". Part of me wonders why Geely bought Volvo, but they seem to be making that work and now you have Polestar in the mix. The Bolt EV (basically a GM/LG partnership is a similar example - albeit not Chinese). It may be a sort of ease into it to get the "Western world" universe comfortable with the idea of buying Chinese cars (ironic given how everything else seem to own is made there). We saw it with Japanese cars in the 70s/80s, and then Korean cars. The adoption of "Chinese EVs" will likely be much more rapid...the partnerships just get their feet in the door and mass exposure/acceptance. Or...I could be wrong!
He doesn't want out. When asked if he would buy back Tesla shares if the Twitter sale fell through, he said he would.
Xepa777
Banned
Where’s the multi thousand upvotes in Reddit and retweets for the retraction?
bet it will be crickets. Sigh….
GM and Dodge aren't too far behind Ford in terms of pickup sales. Even Toyota sells about 1/4 of what the F-series sells. Ford doesn't need to compete with Tesla at all. Ford will be taking sales from the other 3, and their own ICE truck sales.
It's likely we hit a point where the truck market in the US is mostly a new "big 2", Ford and Tesla.
Yeah I really don’t buy into the Chinese EV makers being any actual competition for Tesla except for in China itself. Probably places like India too. But even in China, Tesla has replaced BMW, Mercedes, etc as the token of prestige and even the Chinese auto makers can’t make a dent in that. Which means they’re left with the low ASP, low margin sector.
Nio was supposed to be that competitor for the luxury/prestige sector but the cracks have really started to show in Nio. Still can’t make it profitable at larger scale and their growth has plateaued. When Tesla, at a scale exponentially larger than them, is actually beating them on growth %, then you know Nio has a major problem
hacer
Active Member
FTFYBut it hits mannequins disguised as one year old children wearing traffic cone suits.
jkirkwood001
Active Member
Understood. @unk45 . I was thinking more a Chinese BEV manufacturer buying a controlling interest in a Western OEM.
We know that Western OEMs have done JVs with the Chinese but the tides are turning, eh? The engineering and money & power will increasingly come from China, not the other way around (except with Tesla). The collateral of Western OEMs is decreasingly their money and scale and now only their name and sales network, as in my OP (and even the name, consider how we no longer say "Is it good? It's the 'Cadillac' of ___!"). I think this is different from what we have seen going back several decades (thinking of Suzuki 'teaching' GM, and Mitsubishi 'teaching' Chrysler, how to make small cars for a cut of the proceeds).
It's been a long time since I worked for an automotive Tier 1, so I may be misinformed.
1 Stock-Split Stock to Buy Hand Over Fist in August | The Motley Fool
Tesla's 3-for-1 stock split is set to take effect later this month.
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Don't be a fool. Empty the piggy bank!
thesmokingman
Active Member
1 Stock-Split Stock to Buy Hand Over Fist in August | The Motley Fool
Tesla's 3-for-1 stock split is set to take effect later this month.
Don't be a fool. Empty the piggy bank!
StealthP3D
Well-Known Member
I know what you mean and if I was still striving to reach my "number" I would probably be even more than the 50-plus percent (in one company) than I already am. And I would be a bit "on the edge of my seat" the entire time being so concentrated in one investment, no matter how sure of a thing it seemed. As it is, I don't have a care. Which is a luxury in itself. No having a care is a luxury made possible by having a lot more than I know I need.
For that reason, I have some investment/retirement advice for those looking to retire and trying to come to terms with what their 'number' is. Take it or leave it, it doesn't matter to me:
Make the 'number' at least two to three times what you think it should be. Obviously, the exact multiplier here will vary depending upon how you calculated your "number" to begin with, and your age and health at the time, but you get the idea. Remember, the first million is the hardest so be very generous when calculating the number. Like at least 2-3X what you think you will actually need, maybe 5x. It's a lot easier to make more money when you haven't mentally 'cashed out' than it is to conserve a dwindling pile. There are a bunch of very good reasons to be greedy like this, I'm only going to mention two or three of the big ones.
1) The luxury of not having a care. This doesn't mean you can be reckless with your money on a grand and continuing scale, but it does mean you can stop thinking about money, stop trying to get a better deal, you can take that vacation when it's most convenient for you, maybe that means tomorrow, rather than planning it for when the rates are the lowest or the weather might not be optimum. It means you can stop waiting hoping the thing you want/need will go on sale, you can just buy it when you need it. Basically, when you have more than you need, you can do whatever you want, whenever you want, without worrying how it might impact your budget. That's very liberating which is worth a lot right there.
2) I don't know what the future holds, and neither do you. It could be there is hyperinflation. Or the future could be an amazing place with amazing options, but only if you have the very large amounts of money that it may cost to be an early adopter of things that could significantly improve your life. Domestic robots, life extension technologies, amazing genetic cures for diseases that cripple quality of life, etc. etc. etc. I could go on and on about why we don't know, the point is, nobody can know how much they might need or want in the future and it's a lot easier if you continue compounding your gains than if you cash out early and start living big early. I'm not saying to delay your dreams so much as I'm saying it might be good to scale them back to require a much smaller part of your net worth so the bulk of it can continue to compound rather than spending it down early on lavish things.
The future is both more certain and yet more uncertain than most people think. That sounds like a contradiction, but the certainty is a function of the aggregate future of everyone (which, with AWG, etc., still has plenty of uncertainty to it) and the uncertainty is a function of each individuals happenstance (human nature is to under-estimate the chances of negative things happening). All the planning in the world cannot prevent bad things from happening. I'm not saying to expect bad things to happen, I'm saying it's easier and better to have contingencies in case they do happen than to squander those away on living large and close to your budget, before you really have the means. It's always helpful to not be constrained by money. Truth: money does not surprise you with how long it lasts (unless it's actively working for you). Conversely, many people have discovered that money vanishes amazingly quickly with little to show for it. This is even true for the majority of big Lotto winners, even those who won more than $50-$100 million. Yes, they were foolish but it still illustrates how quickly things can go wrong.
3) There is no rule that says you have to spend it all, it doesn't matter if you have more than you need. It's only a problem when you have less than you need. Go beyond money and enjoy living so far within your actual means that you can enjoy each moment even more. If your money continues compounding (and it will), there will come a point at which living far within your means is actually living quite large. This is the side you want to err on.
Some people feel they must spend it now to become "the person" they want others to see. Please stop right there. That never made anyone happy and it just might make long-standing family and friends jealous. Conversely, if they are already far beyond your economic "status" and you want to bring yourself "up to their level", stop right there! If they treat you or think of you any differently based upon your perceived economic status, they are not worth knowing, let alone, trying to impress. You only have one life to live, live it on your terms. Do what you do because that's what you believe you should be doing, not because that's what you think others believe you should be doing.
In the current world, even $10 million is not necessarily excessive if one wants to retire before the traditional retirement age of 62-65. Sure, don't live like a college student simply because you 'only' have $2 million or $5 million, or whatever it is, but don't "cash out" and "do big things" because there is a high chance those "big things" won't turn out how you thought. It's much better to continue making money by the proven method of the magic of compounding. It doesn't even have to be in TSLA although I haven't seen any companies that look to me like they have a more favorable risk/reward ratio at this point. At my age, that doesn't stop me from diversifying 50% of my assets into other companies. Elon Musk kept betting it all and winning. He never intended to bet it all but that's just how it played out because the money never goes as far as you think, unless it's actively working for you. I suppose if you are as exceptional as he is, you could emulate his investment style, but I don't recommend it. If you want to bet on yourself, and you do not have a proven track record, limit the amount you invest and get others to make up the difference. Elon did this too but it almost ended up a disaster anyway.
The message is: money ain't what it used to be so don't be getting all swell'd up in da head thinking yer rich and can cash out and get off the crazy train simply because Tesla doubled yet again. Sure, take some profits and upgrade your day-to-day life a little, but always keep the spending on the conservative side so your assets can continue to compound, and you can reach that point where money truly doesn't matter. I think many will be surprised how quickly that will happen when you patiently hold the course. Of course, your health and age are major determinates of how to think about all of this and how and when to diversify. Finally, never take your eyes off the actual current performance and future prospects of the companies you are invested in.
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