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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
Appreciate it, but honestly i owe a lot of it to everyone here, even the trolls (for entertainment purposes). Even on the darkest days, the level heads on here just cements my belief that we are still in the early innings of becoming the worlds most valuable company.
Most people here try their best to help
By my TSLA model, a PE of 135 after 4Q earnings would put the SP somewhere around the $500-$550 range. I seriously don't see us getting there by January of 2023, that's a huge leap upwards from where we are today in a very short time, and I don't think that kind of move is likely in the current market environment.
TSLA's current PE is around 110 and given the trend over time I'd wager our PE is about the same or slightly less than that four months from now. A PE of 110 after 4Q should more or less put the SP between $400-$440. That seems much more realistic to me over the next four months.
Gigapress
Trying to be less wrong
Steady state 100k/yr is too low. I don’t know if that was just meant as an arbitrary example, but I think it’ll be much more than that.
In the United States alone, the annual sales volume of Class 8 trucks (Tesla Semi’s category) has been ~200k trucks in the last decade. I would imagine the global number is an order of magnitude higher, but I haven’t looked it up. Considering that Tesla tends to claim ~50% of unit volume in every vehicle market segment they enter…
(link)
Moreover, once the economics of the Tesla Semi are demonstrated in real usage, it is Game Over. We won’t just be replacing old scrap trucks like in our current market equilibrium. Instead, for many years to come there will be a dramatic phase change transition happening. Brand new Tesla Semis will have all-in total cost of ownership less than the mere fuel and maintenance costs of diesel semis, because the Tesla will save roughly $0.50/mile in these cost categories. Thus it will be economically favorable to take perfectly functional diesel trucks off the road for early retirement as quickly as possible, just like we’ve been seeing with coal power plants for the last decade. And I mean literally as quickly as possible. Logistics companies that don’t do this and find themselves at the back of the order queue will be outcompeted into bankruptcy by their competitors that understand how to do arithmetic.
To illustrate with a simplified example, let’s say I have a diesel truck that I somehow acquired for $0, and let’s say I drive it 100k miles per year (274 miles per day on average). I then decide to buy a new Tesla Semi on loan with a $30k annual payment over ten years. With savings of $0.50/mile on F&M, I will be deleting $50k of annual expenses and adding a $30k loan payment, netting $20k more income each year.
But wait, there’s more.
This is before accounting for:
- Insurance costs being lower due to safety enhancements like lower center of mass, Autopilot, anti-jackknifing software taking advantage of the multiple independent motors, and Tesla’s general crash avoidance/mitigation software capabilities
- Faster route times due to high power compared to diesel trucks as well as regen braking capabilities, especially for mountainous routes and urban routes
- Higher reliability
- Potential massive increase in the truck’s asset value if autonomy works out while I own it and suddenly it can operate without a driver
- The accrual of equity I’m getting in the truck as I pay down the loan. After 10 years and 1M miles, a Tesla Semi might well still be going strong with maybe modest investment in redoing stuff like the suspension and brakes. The motors certainly won’t wear out and with 500-mile range the battery would be at roughly 1M/500 = 2k cycles, which the 4680s can probably beat I think. If the truck can last another 5 years/500k miles after my loan is paid off then I can get all those years of revenue plus the bonus of no longer paying $30k per year for the loan.
- More predictable cost structure (electricity cost very stable, diesel and engine maintenance cost vary considerably)
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I'm patiently waiting for my Ginsu announcement.
Words of HABIT
Active Member
I had a "Supplemental Restraint System" cautiion alert on my Model 3 purchased June 2018. Four year basic warranty expired June 2022 and I did not purchase extended warranty coverage. After scheduling for service on the Tesla app, I received a call this afternoon from Tesla and asked if I could come by within the hour ahead of my October 6th appointment. I jumped at the chance. Just came back from Tesla Service in Greater Toronto Area. The original quotation I approved was for $2,860 CAD as the entire passenger seat together with sensors needed to be replaced. Much to my surprise, Tesla extended my warranty period for a full five years to cover all "Supplemental Restraint Systems". All parts and service work was completed free of charge while I waited (just over two hours).
This service centre had 18 Teslas being serviced at the same time, and it looked like it could accommodate another ten vehicles. In addition there was one Model S and one Model Y in the showroom. Service was friendly, efficient and of the highest quality. The entire facility including the service centre was spotless clean, and it looked like the Tesla Team were all having a great time, all smiles.
Just one data point, but wow! I'll be coming to Tesla for everything except bannanas and toilet paper from now on. They've made a believer out of me and reinforced my investment in TSLA. My regrets to all here on TMC if Tesla Service profits are down $2,860 CAD this quarter, that's on me.
This service centre had 18 Teslas being serviced at the same time, and it looked like it could accommodate another ten vehicles. In addition there was one Model S and one Model Y in the showroom. Service was friendly, efficient and of the highest quality. The entire facility including the service centre was spotless clean, and it looked like the Tesla Team were all having a great time, all smiles.
Just one data point, but wow! I'll be coming to Tesla for everything except bannanas and toilet paper from now on. They've made a believer out of me and reinforced my investment in TSLA. My regrets to all here on TMC if Tesla Service profits are down $2,860 CAD this quarter, that's on me.
It wasn't extended (unless you were over 60k miles), Tesla's warranty for the supplemental restraint system (SRS) is 5 years 60,000 miles/ 100,000km.
Vehicle Warranty Canada
Vehicle Warranty US
Most sites (KBB, Edmunds) handle that easily by listing the major changes that you select if applicable to your car. For example ‘22 Model S would have:
- Matrix Lights (this actually covers headlights, taillights, appliqué, and dual hinged charge port door)
- Swivel Display
For ‘22 Y it might list:
- AMD Processor
- 12V Lithium Battery
- Dual Pane (?) Front Windows
Rob Maurer's production and delivery estimates up.
Spoiler: 367K produced, 361K deliveries.
TheTalkingMule
Distributed Energy Enthusiast
The current market environment isn't the primary driver of TSLA, as exhibited by the 10x within a global pandemic.
Tesla, and the value of TSLA, is held back as long as is humanly possible by the combined forces of legacy fossil wealth until it can't be held anymore.
At some point sentiment and pressure from the options market releases years of tension. Makes sense we're approaching another one of those points, no?
By January folks in the other thread will be confidently selling $400 strike puts for 1 year out. Doing that with the SP at $320 is just too much risk-free premium for the big boys to hand to us peasants.
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
Is that an actual twitter account run by Tesla or just a fan-boy account though?
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
Description says official but no blue check so who knows.
It's a TwitterBOT acting as a TeslaBOT ... Musk Enterprise synergies
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
Words of HABIT
Active Member
@mongo, as per the link from Tesla Canada that you provided,
"For further details, please review the New Vehicle Limited Warranty. This summary applies only to vehicles purchased directly from Tesla on or after the date listed on the New Vehicle Limited Warranty; any Tesla vehicles purchased prior to that date are subject to the applicable New Vehicle Limited Warranty effective as of the date of purchase of such vehicle directly from Tesla. You can find your applicable New Vehicle Limited Warranty in your Tesla Account."
The New Vehicle Limited Warranty is effective on/after March 22nd, 2021, so no, with my June 2018 purchase I am not entitled to the revised extended warranty which now includes 5 years, 100k km warranty on supplemental restraints. My Tesla Account Waranty has no such inclusion. Tesla did not have to honour the extended warranty for my vehicle, but they did, and for that I am thankful.
Going on 4 1/4 years, over 43k km and to date I have spent a total on maintenance of $76 CAD for an air cabin filter. Take that ICE!
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