Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[printf42]

By the way, that analysis on the ~$80B of US tax benefits for the Semi is arguably very conservative because it considers only the Semi, but not any future derivatives Tesla may make. The 30%/$40k/incremental cost credit applies to any qualified commercial clean vehicles with gross vehicle weight rating (GVWR) of at least 14k pounds. The Tesla Semi's GVWR is 82k lbs. I guess it's perhaps 10k lbs at most for the Cybertruck tri-motor based on Tesla saying the Cybertruck weighs about the same as an F-150, which is 7k lbs GVWR. So there is a solid market in between Cybertruck and Semi that Tesla could go for between now and 2032.

American vehicle classifications define Class 4 as starting at 14k lbs GVWR. Tesla Semi is meant for the Class 8 heavy segment, but Tesla currently has not revealed any products for Class 4 through 7, which Statista says has about the same total sales volume in the US as Class 8.

(link)

Classes 4 and 5 could basically be covered by a supersized heavy-duty Cybertruck. The Ram 4500 is an example of a Class 4 truck.

View attachment 861809

Any vehicle with a high proportion of the cost structure in battery costs will benefit disproportionately from the ~$50/kWh battery subsidies as well, and this would go for that middle commercial trucking segment. A Model Y with an 80 kWh battery at $100/kWh is $8k battery cost out of total maybe $36k cost, so maybe about 20% of the cost structure is battery. At the other extreme, at 1 MWh the Semi battery would cost $100k. I don't know what the rest of the Semi costs, but it's probably far less than this. Commercial trucks in general have more to gain than consumer passenger vehicles do from the Advanced Manufacturing Tax Credit.

All of this is of course contingent upon

• me having accurately understood the law as an amateur reading it
• how long the law actually stays on the books as-is
• how much truck production volume Tesla can actually push out in the next 10 years

6x6 Heavy Duty CyberTruck for 30% off, which probably brings it down to the same price as the top of the line 4wd, I want one. If I have to start a construction company to have one, then so be it.

 

[UncaNed]

6x6 Heavy Duty CyberTruck for 30% off, which probably brings it down to the same price as the top of the line 4wd, I want one. If I have to start a construction company to have one, then so be it.

I'd like to see a Tesla 6 x 6 sharing many Semi components designed to fill a niche luxury market maybe half the volume of the model X, but functional as a heavier truck for contractors, priced at double the gross margin of a model X.

Should fill many a camper's dream too, while serving as sort of another Faberge egg too.

 

[JRP3]

6x6 Heavy Duty CyberTruck for 30% off, which probably brings it down to the same price as the top of the line 4wd, I want one.

As a fan of 6x6 propulsion I don't see the benefit for road going vehicles, other than looking cool of course. Dually's are cheaper to build if you need extra load carrying.

 

[nvx1977]

Bromine pentafluoride slobber eats stainless

and acetone eats paint. your point?

 

[Paracelsus]

Hah ha good one for a sunny Sunday morning as we head out for a walk in the great Adirondacks.
View attachment 861691
Innovation in China, status quo enforced by a corrupt leadership, basic education lacking for the masses...

"Point your finger at someone's country, you can see three fingers pointing at yours"

 

[Gigapress]

I'd like to see a Tesla 6 x 6 sharing many Semi components designed to fill a niche luxury market maybe half the volume of the model X, but functional as a heavier truck for contractors, priced at double the gross margin of a model X. M

 

[mongo]

The Tesla Semi's GVWR is 82k lbs. I guess it's perhaps 10k lbs at most for the Cybertruck tri-motor based on Tesla saying the Cybertruck weighs about the same as an F-150, which is 7k lbs GVWR. So there is a solid market in between Cybertruck and Semi that Tesla could go for between now and 2032.

Minor nomenclature note: GVWR is for the tow vehicle (including incured trailer weight), GCWR is total of tow vehicle and trailers Combined. Non Ev-semi max GVWR is normally 46k, EV at 82k GCWR gets an extra 2k.

Cybertruck payload was 3,500 lbs at reveal, so possibly over the GVWR an F-150. It would likely have a max GVWR of 10k lbs due to the DOT requirements that kick in for commercial use of >10k vehicles.

 

[WADan]

Sorry if this has been posted. But our guy is fighting FUD by calling out point by point!

 

[Prunesquallor]

Alexandra Merz's excellent article on rationale and propects of Tesla stock buyback.

All Breadcrumbs Lead to Tesla Share Buybacks

Or how to make retail investors and employees happy before the Year End

alexandramerz.substack.com

Logically, if it were to happen, it could be soon (low SP and tax changes next year).

 

[Singuy]

Alexandra Merz's excellent article on rationale and propects of Tesla stock buyback.

All Breadcrumbs Lead to Tesla Share Buybacks

Or how to make retail investors and employees happy before the Year End

alexandramerz.substack.com

Logically, if it were to happen, it could be soon (low SP and tax changes next year).

However Elons rejection of a plea for de-esclation and his prediction on Taiwan will have him incline to increase liquidity until crisis averted.

 

[elasalle]

50% is definitely not out of the question. I believe it would just require Tesla to delivery something like 475k for Q4.

IIRC we needed like 420K each quarter, so I think 4Q now needs more like ~ 497K

 

[Singuy]

IIRC we needed like 420K each quarter, so I think 4Q now needs more like ~ 497K

Well for revenue growth we probably don't need 497k since we may see fsd revenue recognition and energy producing noticeable revenue.

 

[AudubonB]

Why it is that posters here gush so slobbily over the Cybertruck and its capabilities is beyond me. Not one of you ever has seen it perform as a truck - ever - nor has any idea in the least of how well it stands up. "But Tesla" is beyond weak as a reason, not least because of the flaw the Model X has (and the Model S? I cannot remember) with the altered stresses on joints when raised to the two "High" positions. "Just keep it in "Regular' and you'll be fine", being Service's final recommendation to me, remains a massive failure for Tesla in my eyes.

As for me, I am leery for the simple reason that there now is such a phenomenally long time between it first having been unveiled - and that in itself was after a long development period - and now....and it still isn't ready to be "properly" shown? This is absolutely separate from bringing it into production; I am quite complacent with it needing to be behind the Models 3 & Y and their increased output.

I had the wonderful and completely unexpected opportunity to host two engineers from Rivian this summer. Both admitted what was well beyond their expectations was the difficultiy of bringing the concept to the reality. My most focused questioning to them regarded the suspension - see above -...."not my bailiwick" was, frustrating to me, their response. And that likewise is what I have been most interested in regarding the Cybertruck, too...Tesla similarly has been tightlipped there, also.

All right, you who so promptly flagged with a Disagree: Why? Would you care to elaborate, or did you mistakenly believe this is not a discussion forum, but Twitter?

 

[wipster]

All right, you who so promptly flagged with a Disagree: Why? Would you care to elaborate, or did you mistakenly believe this is not a discussion forum, but Twitter?

Oh, did you get your feelings hurt? Serves you right to suffer...

 

[Nolimits]

Anyone here know when the original gigapress arrived for model Y and how quickly it started churning structural Ys out? Trying to guesstimate when we will start to see more CT testing out in the road. - then soon to reality

 

[wipster]

I disagreed with you because Tesla has learned A LOT from the early days of the S & X, as shown by how well the doors work on the X currently. Plus, as illustrated in the vid that Kanweg posted, the exoskeleton construction by default is going to eliminate many of the issues with which you're concerned. If you haven't yet watched it, I highly recommend that you do. The advantages that the exoskeleton provides is truly a game changer. And now that they have or will shortly have the needed gigapress in Austin, I feel they can d:efinitely get the bugs out by mid 2023.

Sorry (not sorry) for the post above, I couldn't resist digging on a Mod for once.

Edit: Twitter doesn't have a disagree... yet. Probably change if Elon actually buys it.

 

[Hock1]

All right, you who so promptly flagged with a Disagree: Why? Would you care to elaborate, or did you mistakenly believe this is not a discussion forum, but Twitter?.

No, and no.

 

[MC3OZ]

I disagreed with you because Tesla has learned A LOT from the early days of the S & X, as shown by how well the doors work on the X currently. Plus, as illustrated in the vid that Kanweg posted, the exoskeleton construction by default is going to eliminate many of the issues with which you're concerned. If you haven't yet watched it, I highly recommend that you do. The advantages that the exoskeleton provides is truly a game changer. And now that they have or will shortly have the needed gigapress in Austin, I feel they can definitely get the bugs out by mid 2023.

Sorry (not sorry) for the post above, I couldn't resist digging on a Mod for once.

There a 2 separate factors here.

1. Cybertruck is clearly designed for off-road use, towing and hauling. It is fairly logical that Tesla would have tested prototypes extensively in those modes.

2. While Cybertruck is designed to be easy to build, it also uses a novel build process, and some issues getting the all new technology to work well for a smooth production ramp would not be surprising.

The quality an functionality of the product will remain, long after any initial production teething problems are forgotten.

 

[Todd Burch]

Amongst all this fear about China demand, I find it interesting that there’s little talk about Tesla paying Giga Shanghai employees 3x normal pay to work thru a holiday week where they would normally be off so they can keep production going.

Does that honestly sound like a factory experiencing demand issues? Doesn’t sound like it to me…

 

[wipster]

There a 2 separate factors here.

1. Cybertruck is clearly designed for off-road use, towing and hauling. It is fairly logical that Tesla would have tested prototypes extensively in those modes.

2. While Cybertruck is designed to be easy to build, it also uses a novel build process, and some issues getting the all new technology to work well for a smooth production ramp would not be surprising.

The quality an functionality of the product will remain, long after any initial production teething problems are forgotten.

They have been working on the CyberTruck for several years now and while your points may have been valid in 2020 and even last year, I think we're way past that now.

And as for your first point, I can't wait to see a few in the Baja 1000 or Barstow to Vegas... It's going to be epic!