Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[wipster]

You do understand that when I posted the market was still open, so what was true at that moment would not be forever... right?

I was also pointing out that TSLA's gains today had little to do with earnings in two days....

And percentages are just that. If you had $1M in Rivian, or $1M in TSLA, you made the same amount of money today.

No worries, I was just bored... ;-)

 

[fiveten]

$TSLA up $3+ in AH...Somebody knows something or Big $$ shorted the *sugar* out of it last week and gobbled up enough shares of the panic sellers, margin calls and stop losses.

They got some shares from me, mother f’ers. Good lessons learned, but man it sucks. I got too greedy. Still the best thing I could have done was to buy and never sell. Trying to game the system cost me 10%.

 

[Artful Dodger]

They got some shares from me, mother f’ers. Good lessons learned, but man it sucks. I got too greedy. Still the best thing I could have done was to buy and never sell. Trying to game the system cost me 10%.

Nominated for "Moderators' Choice: Posts of Particular Merit". Thank-you.

 

[OrthoSurg]

They got some shares from me, mother f’ers. Good lessons learned, but man it sucks. I got too greedy. Still the best thing I could have done was to buy and never sell. Trying to game the system cost me 10%.

Did you sell Friday trying to buy back at the end of the day tomorrow at $185?

 

[elasalle]

Did you sell Friday trying to buy back at the end of the day tomorrow at $185?

Based on advice from chicken genius

 

[Mengy]

Based on advice from chicken genius

I'm still waiting for TSLA to hit $140, because Chicken told me it was going to go down that low.

 

[JSML]

For those of you who follow me in the "Papafox's Daily Tesla Trading Charts" thread, you know that I've been busy rolling my Jan23 deep in the money call options to Jun23s. By trading from an IRA I can usually manage zero cost rolls (using strong up-trend days like today or strong down trend days like Friday). What I suggest is that you look at your current long term call options and ask yourself if they fit your current thesis of where to place a likely-profitable bet. If your current options don't fit that thesis, then consider modifying the option bets to fit your thesis. If you're trading from an IRA or 401K in a tax-on-trading-free environment, then you're good to go. OTOH, if you're trading from a regular brokerage account you normally are constrained by the wash rule (selling for a loss and then rebuying) or tax consequences (short-term gains upon selling your less-desirable call option). There is a sweet spot, however, when you can avoid both gotchas: when the value of your original bet is slightly better than break even. At such a time the wash rule no longer applies and tax consequences are a pittance. Some time in the near future we may well see TSLA rise high enough to reach that sweet spot for the options you are holding. If you want to change your options for something that looks more likely to succeed, that's a good time to do so.

Do you change the strike price to enable no cost rolls? I have several I need to roll and it always cost money to roll at the same strike.

 

[WattsHappening]

Do you change the strike price to enable no cost rolls? I have several I need to roll and it always cost money to roll at the same strike.

Of course @Papafox should chime in, but I've followed him long enough to know how he does it.

If you are going to roll simultaneously, of course there will be a debit transaction to roll out in time. What Papafox recommends is to buy the later call first when the stock price is down and then sell the earlier one later when the stock price has increased. You obviously have to have available cash and/or margin to do this.

As I don't have either, I have sold the earlier calls first on an up day and then put in a GTC order to buy a later expiration at the same strike price at the same price for the option. Obviously, the stock price has to drop a bit for this order to execute. I've been successful once, and trying it a second time today.

There is obviously risk involved if the stock price moves away from you in between the two transactions. For me, selling first and then trying to buy back later offers me a bit of a hedge. The number of contracts I am doing at a time is small, so even if I am not able to buy back in later, the rest of my portfolio will be happy. Kicking myself as there have been so many opportunities in the past month to roll out all of my January 2023 calls.

Hope that all makes sense.

 

[wipster]

I'm still waiting for TSLA to hit $140, because Chicken told me it was going to go down that low.

Maybe after the next 10-1 split...

 

[JSML]

Of course @Papafox should chime in, but I've followed him long enough to know how he does it.

If you are going to roll simultaneously, of course there will be a debit transaction to roll out in time. What Papafox recommends is to buy the later call first when the stock price is down and then sell the earlier one later when the stock price has increased. You obviously have to have available cash and/or margin to do this.

As I don't have either, I have sold the earlier calls first on an up day and then put in a GTC order to buy a later expiration at the same strike price at the same price for the option. Obviously, the stock price has to drop a bit for this order to execute. I've been successful once, and trying it a second time today.

There is obviously risk involved if the stock price moves away from you in between the two transactions. For me, selling first and then trying to buy back later offers me a bit of a hedge. The number of contracts I am doing at a time is small, so even if I am not able to buy back in later, the rest of my portfolio will be happy. Kicking myself as there have been so many opportunities in the past month to roll out all of my January 2023 calls.

Hope that all makes sense.

Thank you so much for the info.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

The competition is coming....even though they cannot produce a mass market EV that does not blow up:

GM tests limits of Cadillac’s brand power with $300,000 Celestiq electric car

The vehicle launches General Motors into the ultra-luxury segment against the likes of Bentley and Rolls-Royce.

www.cnbc.com

Pay attention:

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Elon confirmed he's on the call Wednesday.

 

[vikings123]

Looks like there are some great deals to be had for used cars on Tesla’s website. 2019 SR with FSD for 36K sounds too good to be true. Presumably these are lease returns. Prices seem to have come down as compared to last week.


I wonder if this an indication that Tesla will remove the option to purchase FSD outright and only give the option of subscription.

 

[⚡️ELECTROMAN⚡️]

Elon confirmed he's on the call Wednesday.

 

[Papafox]

Of course @Papafox should chime in, but I've followed him long enough to know how he does it.

If you are going to roll simultaneously, of course there will be a debit transaction to roll out in time. What Papafox recommends is to buy the later call first when the stock price is down and then sell the earlier one later when the stock price has increased. You obviously have to have available cash and/or margin to do this.

As I don't have either, I have sold the earlier calls first on an up day and then put in a GTC order to buy a later expiration at the same strike price at the same price for the option. Obviously, the stock price has to drop a bit for this order to execute. I've been successful once, and trying it a second time today.

There is obviously risk involved if the stock price moves away from you in between the two transactions. For me, selling first and then trying to buy back later offers me a bit of a hedge. The number of contracts I am doing at a time is small, so even if I am not able to buy back in later, the rest of my portfolio will be happy. Kicking myself as there have been so many opportunities in the past month to roll out all of my January 2023 calls.

Hope that all makes sense.

Pretty good explanation. Keep in mind that I do rolls both by selling the earlier expiration first and by buying the later expiration first, depending on whether the stock price is going down or going up. Just like you, if the day is a big steady down day like Friday, I sell first the earlier expiration and then later buy the more distant expiration call. It's really important to have cash on the side so if the market turns against you you can complete the trade with minimum repercussions. I really try to keep my trades within about $5 of each other to give myself a reasonable chance of completing same day. Keep delta in mind. If you're selling a call for $4 to buy a call for $8, the stock price will have to go up many times $4 to enable that trade. Overnight can deliver enormous surprises. Also, it's important to start slowly and know what you're doing before rolling multiple calls at a time. For example, once you sell your older call, will your brokerage allow you to use that money to buy the new call same day? You usually have to set up some kind of margin arrangement with your brokerage to do so.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Looks like there are some great deals to be had for used cars on Tesla’s website. 2019 SR with FSD for 36K sounds too good to be true. Presumably these are lease returns. Prices seem to have come down as compared to last week.


I wonder if this an indication that Tesla will remove the option to purchase FSD outright and only give the option of subscription.

Way cheaper than any ICE car if you factor in FSD and all the other goodies.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

View attachment 864887

Way cheaper than any ICE car if you factor in FSD and all the other goodies.

You sure "FSD capable" means it's included?

 

[M|S|M MYP]

You sure "FSD capable" means it's included?

 

[vikings123]

You sure "FSD capable" means it's included?

Yes it does.

 

[Discoducky]

If you are wondering what leading economic indicators are, then you are in luck!

They are being announced Thursday here: U.S. Economic Calendar - MarketWatch

At 10am Eastern with an expectation of -0.3%

I'm sure the market won't care about this number at all whatsoever... /s

If only we knew that we were in a recession this past March.