Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Featsbeyond50]

Elon needs to put out Master Plan III. Put the focus back on what matters and show that he is still focused on the details.

Master Plan 3 won't do jack, and it's not coming anyway because Elon is preoccupied with Twitter.

The reason Master Plan Part 3 won't do anything, even if it got published today, is AI Day didn't move the share price, nor did his interview with Ron Barron. If those didn't do anything, why would MPIII?

Elon knows Tesla is marching toward FSD wide release and Cybertruck launch. He's comfortable the company is in good hands with that and so his attention is on Twitter.

In the meantime, we are at the mercy of market sentiment which, for the foreseeable future, is very negative.

 

[phantasms]

Warning: Potentially bullish!

I went into the settings on my JPM brokerage account. TSLA was very recently setup on the backend as a company that gives dividends. Obviously I listened to the Q3 call, etc, etc, but "sometime next year" to what I'm seeing now is pleasant on the eyes.

p.s. No margin! lol

 

[StealthP3D]

9. For years when waiting for model S or model 3 there were a big giant carrot sitting out front enticing investment. The roadmap and timeline was pretty clear. Now that carrot is harder to see, covered in mud.

No doubt, the Cybertruck timeline is getting near. This will be Tesla's first vehicle with huge ground-clearance and that can power through wet, muddy conditions which will open up huge new segments of the market compared to their four other models which are all city/highway cars. I'm just a bit surprised how bullish you've suddenly become!

Currently, people's perceptions, the media, the common person on the Internet, popular thoughts about Tesla (even amongst many right here on TMC) appear to be approaching maximum fear, doubt and uncertainty, and the parallels to spring of 2019 are striking. It amazes me that the feel and flavor so common right now in the masses psyche can be so strikingly similar to a period of Tesla's history which was so strikingly different. There are many differences in the fundamentals, but the similarities in the popular psyche are too striking to ignore.

Bullish! This is actually a huge gift to all those people who thought they missed out on TSLA last time. However, the climate of popular opinion being so similar to the spring of 2019 means most of them will miss out once again. Because they can't see the forest for the trees. And the comedy of life continues to repeat again and again...all at the hands of the monied puppet masters who are so adept at controlling the masses. They are not worried because they are pulling the strings for their own enrichment at the expense of the idiots who continue to fall for their exaggerated and manufactured narratives.

Everything but the timing of this was 100% predictable. Who would have thought they be able to pull it off right as all the most informed and careful projections were pointing to record results? And it's times like these that highlight the wisdom of avoiding margin like the plague!

 

[Rammstein]

I’m beginning to think that Elon doesn’t want the extreme left owning Tesla stock. He sees what they are doing to free speech and what they are doing to the culture of the US. I think he despises them and doesn’t want them to enjoy the fruits of TSLA.

He knows an amazing quarter is coming up with record production numbers and wide release of FSD beta. Elon has a track record of rewarding those people that agree with him. There seems to be more than meets the eye here.

 

[gtrplyr1]

I haven't been on this board as much in the last 6 months or so. I'm surprised to see so much negative Elon comments ... he lost me during the pandemic with his behavior but when I would post anything negative I would get tons of dislikes here. It seems as though the narrative has changed and even many on this board have had enough of Elon. I know I have.

 

[larmor]

You think they don't leverage perceived weakness?

Yes, that is exactly what algobots and large investors are doing. TSLA price action is so predictable and so reactive, that large investors are making huge bank on these gyrations. No headlines or news on continued production, 'run-rate' (-- fwiw that is a thing and a goal of every manufacturing process, engineering process), etc, because the obvious headlines would tamp down the tsla volatility. I would not hesitate to say, that headline manufacture correlated to tsla price action would be a very east fit with a r correlation of 0.9 to 1.0.

Semi is coming, and i'm guessing they are doing test runs with loads, etc. This is not a showroom vehicle to deliver with less than 50 miles, it is a capital expenditure by the buyer and a means to decrease ongoing shipping costs.

 

[wipster]

Seems like we are going down 5% everyday. Twitter, recall, growth, China, whatever

Seems like capitulation is within reach

Never surrender, never ever ever capitulate!

 

[willow_hiller]

The vision was very persuasive. Sounded very smart. Aspirational. People wanted the product not only because it’s a good car but because of the vision. Buying into a better future. New tech. Best experience. Ride the exciting new wave of tech.

None of this has changed for me. If you listen to what Elon is saying first-hand, I think you'd find the same. But if you only receive your news about Elon through someone else's filter, they're going to put their own spin on it. And more often than not, than spin is harshly negative.

I'm not saying he doesn't make mistakes and say stupid things online; that's undeniable. But he's still the same man that brought Tesla and SpaceX to where they are today. And his companies are still executing on their visions. No amount of spin can change that.

 

[JRP3]

FTFY

You keep speaking in absolutes and offer nothing in the way of evidence (beyond your feels) to support such nonsense.

Thank you for playing!

Again you "fixed it" for yourself. Everyone can read the change in sentiment in this very thread. The largest negative overhang on this stock is Elon, that's reality.

 

[Kenypowa]

He waded right into the center of partisan politics. Elon was always political, but it was issues based. Now it is party based and that isnt good for the brand. People are worried about long term ramifications of brand destruction. It was easy to defend Elon and the issues he talked about in the past. Climate Change is real, Tesla treats employees well so unions not needed, Big Oil and traditional auto spread FUD, media downplays Tesla because of advertisers, etc. etc. Now it is just red is good for election to throw sand in the gears and it doesnt matter if democracy is taken away, women lose rights, wall between church and state is torn down. Some Elon defenders who defend everything he does blow past this, but it is a risk.

Personal observation:

Some left and LGBTQ advocates has vilified about Chick Fil A for their anti-gay stance. They have boycotted Chick Fil A for years. And yet every year when I went to the States, it was always packed, whether in conservative Utah, purple Florida or the very liberal NYC or LA. We live in a world where the loud minority on both sides get the most attention but it doesn't reflect the real world.

Do I agree with Chick Fil A's stance? Of course not.
Do I grab Chick Fil A when I have a chance? Absolutely.

As bad as all the negative sentiment is today, it's nowhere close to 2018-2019 peak FUD. I sold a small position of TSLA when TSLA went from $180 to $380 pre-pre-split in late 2019 partly due to the FUD and I have regretted it ever since.

Oh well, times have changed and just picked up more 100 more chairs at $187. 3 years from now, everyone would look back and wonder why they didn't buy more at this ridiculously cheap price.

 

[2daMoon]

Again you "fixed it" for yourself. Everyone WITH MY MINDSET can read the change in sentiment in this very thread. The largest negative overhang on this stock is Elon, that's MY reality.

FTFY

 

[dm33]

And his companies are still executing on their visions. No amount of spin can change that.

Sadly, his company is very much not executing to plan. He privately owns Twitter. It is a very public dumpster fire where at every step he looks like an arrogant idiot child unable to discern fact from fiction, completely unprepared for a non tech endeavor.

 

[gtrplyr1]

Personal observation:

Some left and LGBTQ advocates has vilified about Chick Fil A for their anti-gay stance. They have boycotted Chick Fil A for years. And yet every year when I went to the States, it was always packed, whether in conservative Utah, purple Florida or the very liberal NYC or LA. We live in a world where the loud minority on both sides get the most attention but it doesn't reflect the real world.

Do I agree with Chick Fil A's stance? Of course not.
Do I grab Chick Fil A when I have a chance? Absolutely.

As bad as all the negative sentiment is today, it's nowhere close to 2018-2019 peak FUD. I sold a small position of TSLA when TSLA went from $180 to $380 pre-pre-split in late 2019 partly due to the FUD and I have regretted it ever since.

Oh well, times have changed and just picked up more 100 more chairs at $187. 3 years from now, everyone would look back and wonder why they didn't buy more at this ridiculously cheap price.

And the name of Chick Fit A's CEO? I have no idea as most don't. I'd bet they are not front and center on one of the world's leading social medial platforms spewing political advice.

BIG difference.

 

[MP3Mike]

So everyone is clear on this, only Tesla can update EPAS with an OTA. Not to mention every ECU in the vehicle.

No other company has demonstrated this. We'll see if Lucid and Rivian can do it, I believe they have the capability and are planning to, but it hasn't happened yet.

The lead Tesla has in OTA is much bigger than the drivetrain lead IMHO.

But sadly in this case, it was that ability that caused the problem. The EPAS was fine before they "broke" it with an OTA...

 

[thx1139]

I’m beginning to think that Elon doesn’t want the extreme left owning Tesla stock. He sees what they are doing to free speech and what they are doing to the culture of the US. I think he despises them and doesn’t want them to enjoy the fruits of TSLA.

He knows an amazing quarter is coming up with record production numbers and wide release of FSD beta. Elon has a track record of rewarding those people that agree with him. There seems to be more than meets the eye here.

He over estimates extreme left in the USA. We dont have much of an extreme left and they dont want a Tesla. Extreme left will only be happy when Tesla is owned by workers. There just isnt many people in the US like that and they have no power.

 

[SOULPEDL]

Poor mods... (Twitter be or not to be?)

Some risk spills into social movements which I believe is the last remaining effort to try and crater the stock - simply because they can't stop it financially. It is self funding now.

This social spin affects SP short-term, but still does not affect the actual value of the stock long term while demand continues to grow. So if the Fed had taken the dovish route on interest rates, Tesla may have been more willing to announce greenfield factories like Canada or Mexico. Instead it can proceed cautiously to prepare for a global downturn by growing existing factory Capacity beyond belief (China).

Hard to say if a new factory that's delayed will impact anything on growth because a much more efficient factory can emerge when the time is right. Possibly lights out (OK, the Robots can have little lights on their heads.)

 

[OrthoSurg]

Never surrender, never ever ever capitulate!

I thought market makers waited to full blown capitulation and margin calls before starting to buy back

I wanna see capitulation actually, today. So we can turn the page.

 

[tslagreen]

I’m beginning to think that Elon doesn’t want the extreme left owning Tesla stock. He sees what they are doing to free speech and what they are doing to the culture of the US. I think he despises them and doesn’t want them to enjoy the fruits of TSLA.

He knows an amazing quarter is coming up with record production numbers and wide release of FSD beta. Elon has a track record of rewarding those people that agree with him. There seems to be more than meets the eye here.

I'm down on Elon right now, but I don't blame him for his political change of heart. He creates (with others) a transformational, generational company that is right out of the American success story playbook, but then gets trashed personally by pols like Elizabeth Warren, Bernie Sanders and the like. The current administration whistles by the graveyard pretending that Tesla does not exist to not offend political supporters and companies. [By the way, I am center left politically as a point of reference.]

I would be pissed as well. Also, his most recent political comment about divided government is true. Nevertheless, I wish he would focus on "more important" matters, specifically with Tesla. He is who he is and I do not expect that he will reign it in and investors will have to make decisions accordingly.

 

[thx1139]

And the name of Chick Fit A's CEO? I have no idea as most don't. I'd bet they are not front and center on one of the world's leading social medial platforms spewing political advice.

BIG difference.

Add to it is Chick Fil A's CEO out there publicizing that they give money to African political parties that support killing of gay people. I suspect if he did that fewer people would stop in and eat. I wont because I know of this history.

 

[thx1139]

I'm down on Elon right now, but I don't blame him for his political change of heart. He creates (with others) a transformational, generational company that is right out of the American success story playbook, but then gets trashed personally by pols like Elizabeth Warren, Bernie Sanders and the like. The current administration whistles by the graveyard pretending that Tesla does not exist to not offend political supporters and companies. [By the way, I am center left politically as a point of reference.]

I would be pissed as well. Also, his most recent political comment about divided government is true. Nevertheless, I wish he would focus on "more important" matters, specifically with Tesla. He is who he is and I do not expect that he will reign it in and investors will have to make decisions accordingly.

Yes, but the current administration gives Tesla policy wins, but Elon ignores that because he wants photo ops.

Is SCOTUS divided?