Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[OrthoSurg]

It's FUDtastic

View attachment 872455

Opens by saying SP pressured by this news ...ends with OTA

Seems like we are going down 5% everyday. Twitter, recall, growth, China, whatever

Seems like capitulation is within reach

 

[SOULPEDL]

I mean- he literally does

The CEO had a fiduciary duty owed to shareholders to act in their best interests.


You can certainly debate if what he's doing with twitter (or has done there in the past, or will do in the future) are in the best interests of Tesla shareholders or not-- but he owes that duty to the owners of Tesla nonetheless.

Yes, but not his only responsibility to shareholders. I don't know Tesla's OA (Operating Agreement), but they don't need to be boilerplate and can include things like the mission, society, planted... which must also be weighed in with finance as a whole. Is the Tesla OA public I wonder?

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Sit and do nothing and HODL - Same thing that a lot of remote workers do

 

[Nocturnal]

I must have missed the notice that Tesla was being shut down and sold for parts. Shame. It was such a promising company too.

 

[gtrplyr1]

Holding on and trying not to watch this nonsense. We desperately need to change the narrative from Elon's antics to one that is company specific. Unfortunately, it's hard to do when every word and tweet coming from him is "front page" news ....

I long for the day when the discussion centered around production numbers, new products and innovations ... not the CEO of a major company dishing out political advice. Sheesh ....

Cheers to the longs ....

 

[Congo Line]

Seems like we are going down 5% everyday. Twitter, recall, growth, China, whatever

Seems like capitulation is within reach

Technicals on the TSLA chart pattern are pretty much a head-and-shoulders pattern, and now we're on the downleg of the far shoulder, which is not a good place to be. One analyst I follow put his initial downside target a couple of days ago at $187, which it seems like we are bouncing off. Hopefully we can hold here. In the long run, the business fundamentals should win out, but this short-term action is admittedly very painful to experience (unless you have the guts to load up here).

 

[Drax7]

besides economic risk and execution risk
twitter has introduced political risk.

more risk implies price concession.

 

[Cosmacelf]

I've yet to see a reasonable explanation for this SP. Can we talk about plausible explanations? Due to a lack of SEC filings, we can already rule out the "Elon is selling" theory.

The most prevalent theory I continue to see is the "Twitter overhang." The premise is that people expect Elon will need to sell TSLA sometime in the future, so they're attempting to frontrun that sale with the intent to cover their shorts when he sells. I don't buy this theory because TSLA has been in a steady decline since late September. Sophisticated shorts would attempt to frontrun immediately before they think Elon would sell, so they could cover quickly and make a large return for limited risk. Frontrunning, and then holding onto the short for 2 months would be dumb and expensive.

The conspiratorial part of my mind wants to think that there are some wealthy individuals attempting to crash TSLA as some sort of revenge for buying Twitter. There still seems to be a misconception that if TSLA falls low enough, Elon may default on some of his loans. But last we heard, he's not using margin-loans: Elon Musk Ditches Tesla-Backed Loans as Part of His Twitter Takeover This would be some extremely expensive revenge, and there are probably easier and cheaper ways to spend it (see all the astroturfing on social-media, or whoever's backing Dan O'Dowd).

Next is some sort of sense of key-man risk. But fundamentally I don't think Elon's behavior has changed much. He's always been impulsive and obstinate, and those are some of the qualities that have led him to success.

And the last theory worth discussing is just whether the tech bubble has burst, and TSLA is a leading indicator. The Fed overdid interest rate increases, market indicators are flashing red, and TSLA is the canary in the coalmine. We all know that TSLA was worth every penny at the ATH, but skeptics may be offloading their TSLA shares in anticipation of a deeper recession.

Thoughts?

Could simply be technical algobots doing a lot of trading. Next support level is supposedly 175.

 

[betstarship]

The company is worth $623B still.

Edit: ...in only its 12 year on the stock market. Microsoft and Apple have been going strong 30-40 years.

 

[JRP3]

Next is some sort of sense of key-man risk. But fundamentally I don't think Elon's behavior has changed much. He's always been impulsive and obstinate, and those are some of the qualities that have led him to success.

He's definitely cranked it up a notch, or ten. A lot more people have lost trust in the CEO, you can argue if that's warranted or not but it's a simple fact. That's a huge overhang on the stock and it's probably not going away.

 

[Webeevdrivers]

I've yet to see a reasonable explanation for this SP. Can we talk about plausible explanations? Due to a lack of SEC filings, we can already rule out the "Elon is selling" theory.

The most prevalent theory I continue to see is the "Twitter overhang." The premise is that people expect Elon will need to sell TSLA sometime in the future, so they're attempting to frontrun that sale with the intent to cover their shorts when he sells. I don't buy this theory because TSLA has been in a steady decline since late September. Sophisticated shorts would attempt to frontrun immediately before they think Elon would sell, so they could cover quickly and make a large return for limited risk. Frontrunning, and then holding onto the short for 2 months would be dumb and expensive.

The conspiratorial part of my mind wants to think that there are some wealthy individuals attempting to crash TSLA as some sort of revenge for buying Twitter. There still seems to be a misconception that if TSLA falls low enough, Elon may default on some of his loans. But last we heard, he's not using margin-loans: Elon Musk Ditches Tesla-Backed Loans as Part of His Twitter Takeover This would be some extremely expensive revenge, and there are probably easier and cheaper ways to spend it (see all the astroturfing on social-media, or whoever's backing Dan O'Dowd).

Next is some sort of sense of key-man risk. But fundamentally I don't think Elon's behavior has changed much. He's always been impulsive and obstinate, and those are some of the qualities that have led him to success.

And the last theory worth discussing is just whether the tech bubble has burst, and TSLA is a leading indicator. The Fed overdid interest rate increases, market indicators are flashing red, and TSLA is the canary in the coalmine. We all know that TSLA was worth every penny at the ATH, but skeptics may be offloading their TSLA shares in anticipation of a deeper recession.

Thoughts?

People are nervous buying a stock where the CEO acts like he is a bat whack crazy crack head….and projects it on a daily basis via his very own social media company.

Jmho.

 

[thx1139]

He's definitely cranked it up a notch, or ten. A lot more people have lost trust in the CEO, you can argue if that's warranted or not but it's a simple fact. That's a huge overhang on the stock and it's probably not going away.

He waded right into the center of partisan politics. Elon was always political, but it was issues based. Now it is party based and that isnt good for the brand. People are worried about long term ramifications of brand destruction. It was easy to defend Elon and the issues he talked about in the past. Climate Change is real, Tesla treats employees well so unions not needed, Big Oil and traditional auto spread FUD, media downplays Tesla because of advertisers, etc. etc. Now it is just red is good for election to throw sand in the gears and it doesnt matter if democracy is taken away, women lose rights, wall between church and state is torn down. Some Elon defenders who defend everything he does blow past this, but it is a risk.

 

[willow_hiller]

He's definitely cranked it up a notch, or ten. A lot more people have lost trust in the CEO, you can argue if that's warranted or not but it's a simple fact. That's a huge overhang on the stock and it's probably not going away.

I don't think Elon's being any more vocal than normally. But I have noticed that a lot of media outlets are amplifying his every move in an attempt to generate clicks and outrage.

And I could understand retail investors losing trust in him, but do you think the entities with enough capital to move the SP around really care about what he Tweets, when the company continues to perform?

 

[2daMoon]

Seems like we are going down 5% everyday. Twitter, recall, growth, China, whatever

Seems like capitulation is within reach

Listen for that subtle "tink, tink, tink" noise of the spring being wound up. It is a sound that calms my nerves.

Balance this against the market's long-standing historical upward reaction post mid-term elections.

From @jw934 some weeks back.

 

[EVMeister]

I don't think Elon's being any more vocal than normally. But I have noticed that a lot of media outlets are amplifying his every move in an attempt to generate clicks and outrage.

Exactly. Every negative or contentious point is twisted and amplified. It seems like quite a few longstanding members here have also been FUD-punched and it's sad to see.

 

[Stormy24]

He's definitely cranked it up a notch, or ten. A lot more people have lost trust in the CEO, you can argue if that's warranted or not but it's a simple fact. That's a huge overhang on the stock and it's probably not going away.

More sellers than buyers, democrats selling ,republicans selling. You got to be in a our gang none of this thinking for yourself stuff.

 

[JRP3]

And I could understand retail investors losing trust in him, but do you think the entities with enough capital to move the SP around really care about what he Tweets, when the company continues to perform?

You think they don't leverage perceived weakness?

 

[2daMoon]

He's definitely cranked it up a notch, or ten. IN MY OPINION a lot more people have lost trust in the CEO, you can argue if that's warranted or not but it's a simple fact. That's a huge overhang on the stock and it's probably not going away.

FTFY

You keep speaking in absolutes and offer nothing in the way of evidence (beyond your feels) to support such nonsense.

Thank you for playing!

 

[Discoducky]

It's FUDtastic

View attachment 872455

Opens by saying SP pressured by this news ...ends with OTA

So everyone is clear on this, only Tesla can update EPAS with an OTA. Not to mention every ECU in the vehicle.

No other company has demonstrated this. We'll see if Lucid and Rivian can do it, I believe they have the capability and are planning to, but it hasn't happened yet.

The lead Tesla has in OTA is much bigger than the drivetrain lead IMHO.

 

[dm33]

Elon has always been synonymous with tesla. It used to be an enormously good thing. The vision was very persuasive. Sounded very smart. Aspirational. People wanted the product not only because it’s a good car but because of the vision. Buying into a better future. New tech. Best experience. Ride the exciting new wave of tech.
Elon seems to have gone nuts. I can’t rationalize his behavior. No longer an asset he is seriously damaging the appeal of tesla despite the product. The glorious vision now looks like nothing more than a cry baby narcissist. He not saying anything remotely intelligent. Looks like a baffoon with Twitter. No one would want to be associated with him if it hadn’t been for his past success. He is not saying anything compelling. He’s frequently acting in opposition to his own words.

I wish I could see a way up for the stock. If they had announced a replacement for Elon that would have helped stabilize the stock. But he’s setting a blowtorch to Twitter. Tesla. His reputation. His image. His net worth.