Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Drax7]

First solar, enphase and solaredge are all up,
I guess mkt figures election should not affect
EV credits.

 

[Gigapress]

-Not a political post-

Looks likely that the Dems will retain control of the Senate. That's good or neutral for the IRA, which is good for TSLA. Even if the Republicans wanted to kill it they would have to do so after it being in place for 2 years which is much more difficult.

The IRA clean energy subsidies will almost certainly be in place through 2024 at a minimum. Even if Congress passed a bill repealing it, Biden, who championed and eventually signed the original law, would veto it unless he dramatically reverses position on one of his flagship legislative achievements and main campaign promises regarding federal support for domestic clean energy and climate action.

These clean energy policies will probably remain as-is until January 2025 at the earliest, when there is the earliest possibility of the Republican Party having Congress and the Presidency. That would only happen if the House and Senate both flip, Biden/Harris lose reelection, and the new President signs the repealing bill in the first week after taking office. If not, then the clean energy subsidies will last even longer.

 

[ToTheStars]

How do you know Tesla's guidance for 2023?

Isn't it 50% YoY growth for the next several years?

 

[ElectricIAC]

The IRA clean energy subsidies will almost certainly be in place through 2024 at a minimum. Even if Congress passed a bill repealing it, Biden, who championed and eventually signed the original law, would veto it.

These clean energy policies will probably remain as-is until January 2025 at the earliest, when there is the earliest possibility of the Republican Party having Congress and the Presidency. That would only happen if the House and Senate both flip, Biden/Harris lose reelection, and the new President signs the repealing bill in the first week after taking office. If not, then the clean energy subsidies will last even longer.

Entitlements rarely get repealed. If anything there may be a compromise to eschew increasing the size of the IRS but retain the rest of the bill.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Yep, and I remember one cringe worthy comment from Elon on the earnings call a few years back that 1% net margin was ok!

Haha, the Tesla World has moved beyond that time. Back then, Tesla was opitimizing for growth, and the plan was to hold net profit just slightly positive while growing as fast as possible. Soon enough, more money could not increase Tesla's growth rate (there were other limiting factors, like cell supply, engineering talent)

Since when Tesla 1st became profitable, we've transitioned through these business phases:

• maximize margins by controlling costs while increasing revenue
• payoff CEO comp. + Net debt while maintaining full R&D & CapEx
• Share Buyback phase while maintaining growth, margins, and new product lines

Guess what? TSLA is going to follow Tesla, the same way the tail follows the dog. They'll just do it on their terms, which is never the short term.

Cheers!

 

[Singuy]

Twitter losing 4 Million a day. Musk might have to sell much more TSLA in the near future. If I never hear the word Twitter again ... it will be too soon.

Those with margin calls, and I know one personally, might have a very bad month. While macros are also against us right now, Elon is certainly not helping. I hope he has to sell most of his TSLA and then he can walk away and post juvenile memes on twitter all day for all I care.

TSLA LONG
ELON SHORT

This has been debunked. Twitter has enough cash to fund operations if Elon managed to gain zero additional revenue from today and post lay off for at least 5 years.

 

[ZenRockGarden]

Isn't it 50% YoY growth for the next several years?

I'm watching the dwindling supply of "buy my reservation" offers on the board here, and speculating that Tesla should be just about at the point where average-sales-price jumps up. Their long waiting list has delayed them experiencing some of the added income from the price increases earlier this year.

 

[Thekiwi]

Down 20% in 4 days. Brutal.

 

[Drax7]

Frankly front running Elon stock sales should not permanently determine
the valuation of Tesla. Even Elon selling should not determine the valuation
unless it implies he is bearish about future prospects which he is not.

I would like to see the stock rally based
on its fundamentals in spite of Elon selling
to cover other commitments.

 

[ZenRockGarden]

Down 20% in 4 days. Brutal.

This is what "Brand Damage" looks like, in real time

 

[Artful Dodger]

100M shares of TSLA traded by 2:45 p.m. ET

P.S. Been watching "Dr. Strange in the Multiverse of Madness" throughout the main session. Strangely apropos...

 

[jerry33]

Hello everyone, first-time poster here but long-time reader!

Sure has been rough lately with everything Elon-related unfortunately, but thank you all for keeping it real in here.

Hopefully, this slaughter ends soon. While a lot of the things happening are a perfect storm of a lot of unfortunate events this year, I hope we'll come out of it soon and back to looking at the fundamentals.

We've been through this before, early 2019 wasn't as much fun because Tesla didn't have many profitable quarters to show. Now you just need to polish your diamond hands.

 

[elasalle]

This is what "Brand Damage" looks like, in real time

this is just Elon forced selling and MM causing more pain to SP

 

[ZeApelido]

Me:

 

[WADan]

I just got a call yesterday to do 3D animations for Boeing (contract work). I can't imagine actually going to work in the old sense ever again. Corporate nonsense and cover-ups everywhere. I'd rather try to sell hot dogs to vegetarians, maybe near some water, with some satellite data and playing along to good tunes.

I have no plan to get a job as my wife still works (she broke her promises to retire twice already), so I am all good!
Our house is paid for, and I do not gamble with anything I can’t afford to lose!

 

[ZenRockGarden]

this is just Elon forced selling and MM causing more pain to SP

Daily volume is around $16B... It doesn't seem like Elon selling a few billion during a week would cause a 20% drop

 

[elasalle]

Daily volume is around $16B... It doesn't seem like Elon selling a few billion during a week would cause a 20% drop

but if Elon did not sell, would we see a 20% drop
hyenas can smell blood from a mile away.

OK back to twitter live

 

[traxila]

Daily volume is around $16B... It doesn't seem like Elon selling a few billion during a week would cause a 20% drop

You forget that 80% of volume for almost any Ticker is HFT algos.

EM selling is a huge deal, and of course, the MMs and traders can all see it and are joining the party. Honestly, we are lucky the buyers are there as he is absolutely hammering the stock.

 

[betstarship]

I just started a new home search a week ago.

 

[wipster]

I just got a call yesterday to do 3D animations for Boeing (contract work). I can't imagine actually going to work in the old sense ever again. Corporate nonsense and cover-ups everywhere. I'd rather try to sell hot dogs to vegetarians, maybe near some water, with some satellite data and playing along to good tunes.

Hey we got a lemon, maybe you can sell some lemonade!

/s