Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
FSD Beta v.11 may be a topic of discussion around your dinner table this Thanksgiving:
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
It's the start of something big.
Gigapress
Trying to be less wrong
Would that be the $3750 for North American battery component manufacturing? How do we know M3 RWD will meet or exceed the 50% minimum percentage of value next year?
Honestly, not sure. I was just thinking if GM is going to qualify (they've said they can) that Tesla could figure it out.
I've half been thinking they will just push all of their LFP cells into Powerwalls and switch back to 2170s in all of the Model 3s. Then they qualify for the full $7,500. Flip the whole game on its head.
StealthP3D
Well-Known Member
That's funny, but it made me thing of something I had forgotten about for some time:
Elon has let on that the Cybertruck is going to be chock full of new technology. When Tesla flipped on the Model Y production lines for the first time, the car had some substantial improvements, octovalve, heat pump to reduce heating consumption in cool weather, structural improvements to reduce build cost, etc, etc, etc. But it was largely the same platform as the proven Model 3, with the same 12 volt electrical system architecture and electrical wires with soy-based plastic insulation.
The Cybertruck is completely different. While this comes with its own risks of delay and cost over runs, I hope the extra time Tesla has had to iron things out will minimize teething problems and result in a relatively smooth roll-out. But, setting aside the potential downsides of a new platform, let's look at the likely benefits and what we can expect this to look like.
I think Tesla will use the Cybertruck to roll out a new electrical system, based on a 40-50 volt architecture and, more exciting to me, printed ribbon wiring. I don't know the technical term, but I first saw this type of wiring used in micro-miniature wiring applications such as that found on computer disk drives, inside laptop computers and, more recently, it has made its way into less expensive consumer items. Even though this type of electrical system is perfect for cars because it's lighter, cheaper and can be installed by robots. I think it's particularly suited to the Cybertruck with its angular shape because it's good at going around 2D corners, not so good at making compound curves like those found on most cars. The ease of installation and connecting everything together neatly will dramatically reduce the cost to wire a car.
Going to a higher voltage architecture has not been done before on any mass-market car because the supply chain for automotive grade 48V components (or whatever voltage becomes adopted) doesn't really exist yet, at least not to a degree that it's practical to make the switch without lining up suppliers for things like antilock brake systems, power steering, lighting, motors for windows, seats and door locks, etc, etc, etc. well in advance. But a higher voltage architecture will enable thinner, less expensive ribbon wiring to carry more current to things like LED headlights, window and seat motors, and anti-lock braking systems. We know that Brembo was using a Tesla Model 3 to test their revolutionary new "Sensify" braking system last summer and I suspect there will be a higher voltage version of it optimized for the Cybertruck. Tesla now has enough volume and strong financials, top tier suppliers can see the writing on the wall. This means, for the first time ever, Tesla has enough industry cred to get suppliers to develop the things they request even when the research and development is quite expensive. Tesla is leading the automotive industry in places we can't even see and the top tier suppliers are probably happy to do follow their lead quietly, without letting on for fear that their traditional customers will get a bad taste in their mouths and feel betrayed. Do not under-estimate the importance of this. This will allow Tesla to introduce new technologies, accelerating their technological lead over competitors while simultaneously cutting production costs with things like ribbon wiring and a higher voltage architecture.
Elon has wanted to do both of those things for many years now and the Model Y was not the appropriate platform or the right time in Tesla's growth to introduce such technologies. The Cybertruck is the perfect platform and the time is right. It's also why Elon is so excited about the Cybertruck. This will make the Cybertruck, which is currently thought of by the investment community (and the automotive community) as a questionable deviation from the norm, with equally questionable profitability potential, into an audacious technological showcase of our automotive future. Regardless of whether you believe the cars of the future will look like the Cybertruck, it will be a stunning display of the technology transforming the auto industry right before our eyes. And it will be Tesla delivering that future to actual buyers, not legacy auto with their fanciful versions of the "car of the future" that never makes it off the desk of an over-paid designer. Tesla already did it once with the Model S. This will be just as profound. The Cybertruck, with an impressive number of new technologies never seen on a high-volume vehicle, is going to increase reliability, safety and capability while simultaneously being able to be manufactured in great numbers, at great speed, for very reasonable prices. A high-quality, high capability truck that is durable and long-lasting with minimal maintenance and repair costs. If the Model S was the first production EV with a clean sheet design, not a converted ICE car, I think the Cybertruck will be truly a clean sheet design, with very little in common with traditional autos, including the chassis and electrical system. The drive system will also be revolutionary even if Rivian is producing a trickle of vehicles with something very similar. The key is to make it affordable and in great numbers.
While it's true the average truck buyer is not going to care if their truck has regular copper or ribbon wiring, you can bet they care how much they have to pay. A truck that can be made quickly, with minimal labor, can use more expensive raw materials (like cold-rolled stainless steel and metallic glass) while selling at a lower cost as it ramps to previously unimaginable volumes from a single factory. I don't think these advancements will be lost on the investment community; most investors will be just as stunned as the automotive people.
Yes, uncertainty brought by the war in Ukraine and the economic impacts have delayed the higher valuations we have been waiting for. The only question is how long can higher valuations be delayed? I'm not talking about getting back to $300 (which will be nice), I'm talking about blowing through old ATH's and far beyond. I would suggest that the combined effect of a Q4 with surprisingly good operational metrics, followed by a display of automotive superiority never before seen, in the middle of 2023, will begin to answer that question with authority. And if the Cybertruck can ramp concurrently with 4680 cells successfully, the valuation by 2024-2025 could be mind-boggling. Which is to say it could be as high or higher than many of the more bullish have projected.
The Cybertruck will wake the people up. It will brazenly display a technological leadership that most people still can't even see coming because they have already written it off as the expensive dream of a crazed billionaire who is out of touch with reality. No demand, not practical, too different. Not what people want. But just wait and watch! I hope it's on time without too many teething problems!
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Just launched by Tesla Board Member, Joe Gebbia:
www.samara.com
Backyard – Samara
Discover Samara's Backyard accessory dwelling units. Elevated design, expertly crafted. Fast and easy installation. Solar-powered and future-ready.
www.samara.com
Dumb look for something designed from scratch to have a roof and another layer of solar panels on top like that. I know tesla roof is a lot more expensive but you would think they could find a more integrated way of solar panels than this.Just launched by Tesla Board Member, Joe Gebbia:
Backyard – Samara
Discover Samara's Backyard accessory dwelling units. Elevated design, expertly crafted. Fast and easy installation. Solar-powered and future-ready.
Less not more, thinner wire carries less current not more. 12V X 4A= 48W, 48V X 1A= 48W.
Before they do that I really hope they learn to finally glue material on plastics. I have so many defective panels on my 3 and Y it's silly. 2 steering wheels, one door panel (so far), one center consul, 4 dash boards. This is on two cars, 2018 and 2022. Does not include the two seats that were replaced either. It's fine as long as I don't drive above 5,000 feet or I get blisters. Someone in Fremont is sniffing the glue not using it on the cars.
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RobDickinson
Active Member
Panasonic and Redwood Materials strike multibillion-dollar battery component deal for U.S. production
Battery recycling company Redwood Materials, founded by former Tesla CTO JB Straubel, will supply high-nickel cathode to Panasonic Energy starting in 2025.
www.cnbc.com
Panasonic and Redwood sign multi billion deal
Is it realistic to anticipate that Redwood might be able to get the quantity of minerals they will need from recycling? I wouldn't guess they would be able to hoover up enough used batteries in the 2020's to do this at this scale.Panasonic and Redwood Materials strike multibillion-dollar battery component deal for U.S. production
Battery recycling company Redwood Materials, founded by former Tesla CTO JB Straubel, will supply high-nickel cathode to Panasonic Energy starting in 2025.
Panasonic and Redwood sign multi billion deal
Artemis 1 - T -10 mins and counting
The launch is absolutely breathtaking, but why is there no camera on board the rocket? Instead we got some CGI animation 3 minutes into the flight. SpaceX really set the bar high with regards to launch broadcast.
Now bring on the Starship.
Edit: launch video.
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RobDickinson
Active Member
Looks like Mercedes EQ is struggling in China
JusRelax
Active Member
"Looks like Mercedes EQ is struggling in China"
They didn't think so 3 weeks ago, shortly after Tesla announced price cuts:
Mercedes-Benz says car prices are 'well-supported' in China after Tesla cuts prices of its EVs
The vehicle maker expects full-year earnings for the group to be "significantly above" last year.
www.cnbc.com
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@JimS tracks it and provides a chart that @Papafox includes on Fridays in his Daily TSLA trading Charts thread: Papafox's Daily TSLA Trading Charts
Favguy
Member
Looks nice, but $289,000 for a large garden shed? Seems a silly price to me, (locally that would buy a nice entry level 3 bedroom home!) similar here would be around £60,000 tops, but I'm a tight Yorkshireman, so might be out of touch with wealthy Californian expectations!Just launched by Tesla Board Member, Joe Gebbia:
Backyard – Samara
Discover Samara's Backyard accessory dwelling units. Elevated design, expertly crafted. Fast and easy installation. Solar-powered and future-ready.
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