Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[AndrewZ]

Consumer Reports is using an outdated methodology to gauge reliability. They make a tacit admission to this in the October edition of the magazine.

The October 2022 edition of Consumer Reports has the following letter to the editor with a response:



When most people think about reliability of an automobile, they are thinking about how often it will break down. But Consumer Reports is putting a software glitch on the same level as an engine that overheats and leaves you stranded.

Feels like focusing on software is an updated methodology rather than outdated lol, and it’ll become more and more important as more vehicle sales switch to EVs and remove the mechanical powertrain.

Software updates come with their own risks, I’m reminded of a huge recent thread where one of the latest updates caused a buzzing/humming across Model S’ (not sure if it affected other models) until it was patched again.

 

[aGreenGuy]

 

[SOULPEDL]

Earlier this year, I planned to swap out Model Y's for something of a better color (and hoping for 4680s). Now, Tesla wants to deliver mine before year end, but what are the chances it will include 4680s, zero? So are all 4680s destined for Semi and Cybertruck as plan of record? Some SR Model Y's come out of Austin (still coming?), but I'm in the Fremont delivery zone (US-west). Sorry if I'm not clear on this roll out, maybe anyone's guess.

Factor in any '23 EV discounts (not clear for me) and now Tesla has a Q4 demand problem all because of me. My reasons for purchasing at this time are a bit unusual as I have too many white ones and can't find them in the parking lots anymore. This last one was a good deal (used P) but I will need more Gs and a 400 SP if we're buying for acceleration and joy over range and comfort. (But track mode on the Y Performance coming out maybe soon makes it a bit more difficult).

The main public attraction that I anticipate from 4680s is charging speed (unknown) which could affect the value of all prior versions. Charging speed was never an issue for us, but it is an overblown fear planted in consumer minds.

 

[SOULPEDL]

View attachment 875164

Exactly!

 

[EVMeister]

The 2022 Tesla Model S achieved a 5-star Euro NCAP rating today, scoring well across the board. Official Tesla Model S 2022 safety rating. See also Tesla blog post - Model S Receives 5-Star Euro NCAP Safety Rating.

 

[OrthoSurg]

Good CPI numbers
+
Good PPI numbers
+
Bad missile numbers
=
Back where we started

 

[elasalle]

Good CPI numbers
+
Good PPI numbers
+
Bad missile numbers
=
Back where we started

The S&P 500 fell on Wednesday as investors weighed a gloomy holiday quarter update from Target that pressured retail stock
TGT down +15%, so easy pickings for selling some PUTS.

Above should actually be a good thing for Fed/markets worried about inflation and rates going up ..... bit more time maybe to digest ..maybe

 

[Nocturnal]

I sure hope Troy is wrong about Q4. With most bulls expecting a sizable beat, his sizable miss would be quite painful.

 

[ZsoZso]

Good CPI numbers
+
Good PPI numbers
+
Bad missile numbers
=
Back where we started

Those are all global influencers, nothing TSLA specific.
If you compare SPY chart with TSLA chart the last 5 days, what you see is

TSLA is more volatile and lost a lot more of the gain than SPY. (today drop is most obvious compared to SPY almost flat)
The question is why ?
Is Elon still selling ?

 

[Artful Dodger]

Sittin' on the dock of the beach. The beach moves on. Payback is a beach?

【Nov.15.2022】Tesla accelerates year-end export deliveries with late-night loading of Teslas\4K \486 | WuWa on Youtube

g'dam, I Love Beach Music...

 

[Singuy]

If Consumer Reports was comparing how often a Tesla leaves you stranded versus how often an ICE car leaves you stranded then it would indeed be fair. But that's not what CR is doing.

The software-centric design of a Tesla enables hundreds of features that aren't available in an ICE car. So there is a lot more that can go wrong. But the typical software glitch is pretty innocuous and it's easily fixed with OTA. This is not true for the plethora of mechanical failures found in ICE cars.

I would say panel gaps and all that should be filed under quality issues. Software which can prevent certain function to work appropriately should be filed under reliability. Just because it can be fixed with a patch doesn't mean it's not a reliability issue. The ease of fix shouldn't be factored in.

 

[Artful Dodger]

I sure hope Troy is wrong about Q4. With most bulls expecting a sizable beat, his sizable miss would be quite painful.

He bases his entire change in quarterly deliveries based on 4 days of insurance registrations. And he doesn't have any special insight into deliveries, he should stick to production (but that's not what his patreons pay for).

 

[Singuy]

Good CPI numbers
+
Good PPI numbers
+
Bad missile numbers
=
Back where we started

And the missile so far has caused no escalation, even the US doesn't think it's Russia, and Poland is calling it an isolated incident.

I made a case that this market currently is TA heavy and I am still sticking to it.

 

[jerry33]

Those are all global influencers, nothing TSLA specific.
If you compare SPY chart with TSLA chart the last 5 days, what you see is
View attachment 875169

View attachment 875170

TSLA is more volatile and lost a lot more of the gain than SPY. (today drop is most obvious compared to SPY almost flat)
The question is why ?
Is Elon still selling ?

ToS is putting a sell suggestion. They really want your shares for cheap.

 

[Nocturnal]

Hi is. He bases his entire change in quarterly deliveries based on 4 days of insurance registrations. And he doesn't have any special insight into deliveries, he should stick to production (but that's not what his patreons pay for).

I'm inclined to agree. He is sure beating that drum.

 

[jkirkwood001]

Amid these TSLA doldrum days of 2022, a little positive diversion. There's an EV test drive day happening in my hometown this weekend. I thought I would drop by and promote my wonderful experience with "The Road to Happiness" (named after a song my son wrote).

Here's the 'pitch' I'm going to pin in my window, thinking of the most, most crucial details to share with wary shoppers - whaddaya think?

 

[Singuy]

Hi is. He bases his entire change in quarterly deliveries based on 4 days of insurance registrations. And he doesn't have any special insight into deliveries, he should stick to production (but that's not what his patreons pay for).

And based on those information, the second week of Nov was close to 14k registered...so it's looking like 50-60k are going to be delivered within China for Nov at this pace, which only leaves 30k-40k to be exported. So production may be pretty high if they are delivering 60k within China this month PLUS loading nonstop at the port.

 

[nativewolf]

And the missile so far has caused no escalation, even the US doesn't think it's Russia, and Poland is calling it an isolated incident.

I made a case that this market currently is TA heavy and I am still sticking to it.

You and Cramer

 

[Singuy]

You and Cramer

haha, except currently TA is not bullish, so I don't know why he thinks it is.

 

[Mengy]

He bases his entire change in quarterly deliveries based on 4 days of insurance registrations. And he doesn't have any special insight into deliveries, he should stick to production (but that's not what his patreons pay for).

While I do think Troy is being too conservative, I personally don't think he's off by as much as most others here at TMC think he is.

If Shanghai continues to ramp up throughout Q4 then we can expect something like 270,000 out of China (88,000+90,000+92,000). Fremont produced 144,000 in Q3 and I don't think we'll see much more out of them for Q4, maybe 145,000 or so. If Berlin and Austin increase by 50% for Q4 they'd be at about 28,000 and 15,000 respectively.

This would total 458,000 produced for Q4. Now not all of them will be delivered due to the wave ending, and Tesla delivered about 94% of what they produced for Q3, so extrapolate that into Q4 and we'd get about 430,500 delivered for Q4.

This would equal 1,340,000 for the year, which would be a YoY delivery growth of 43% for 2022. So yeah Troy might be a bit low, but I feel he's closer than a lot of the Tesla Bulls are expecting for Q4.

Of course no one knows anything for certain and we are all just making assumptions and guesses as to what will happen. They might only do 400,000 for Q4 or they might blow out expectations and do 500,000. We'll all just have to wait and see, but Troy gets a lot of hate here and sometimes I just don't see why that is. His numbers aren't completely unrealistic in my honest opinion, just a bit too conservative.