Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[MikeAtkinson]

It looks like Hardware 4 will use the TSMC cutting edge 4/5 nm process, rather than the 7 nm process previously rumored.

This should allow a smaller chip with modest performance increase OR similar size chip with double the performance OR a bit larger chip with more than double performance, as compared with the 7nm process. Compared to Harware 3 it looks like Hardware 4 will be 5-10 times more powerful. Most of the gains will come from more processing units, although I would expect there to be minor architecture improvements as well.

This is major news.

Harware 4 cameras use four times the number of pixels as Hardware 3, so some performance is lost processing the extra pixels (but not 4x as only the NN layers near the input are affected by pixel count). So a single 4/5 nmm chip will be 2-3 times more powerful than the two chips on Hardware 3 combined. This allows larger NN and dual redundancy or much larger NN without redundancy.

It seems to me that Hardware 4 will be more than sufficient to run the NN for Level 5 FSD and Robotaxi.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1594548181765083137

 

[vikings123]

The FUD is weak medicine. Tesla has a long history of rapidly adjusting prices to suit the current demand and the company has insights into China demand that we could only dream of having access to. Watch what Tesla does, not what the FUDsters propose.

While I agree that competition/media could be spreading rumors, it is also true that we have had some price cuts recently including the insurance promotion.

As an investor, at what point do you start worrying about China demand? When there is another price cut announcement? The first price cut was substantial. Tesla is not exactly a company that likes to talk about these things and perhaps for the right reasons.

Sure it could be a temporary problem because of Covid but it also a seasonally strong quarter. With Berlin ramping up the need to export MIC cars also is impacted which also means more of the MIC cars have to be sold in China.

 

[AudubonB]

….now I have to look up “Chrome translator” to determine if that’s a synonym of “Twitter”…

 

[samn]

As an investor, at what point do you start worrying about China demand?

When Tesla runs out of other countries to increase export quantities to. In other words, when Tesla is the number one car company by unit sales in most every major country around the world. My guess is not until the second half of this decade at the earliest

 

[JupiterMan]

When Tesla runs out of other countries to increase export quantities to. In other words, when Tesla is the number one car company by unit sales in most every major country around the world. My guess is not until the second half of this decade at the earliest

Yep, we are already starting to see this, Tesla have just opened first showroom in Thailand.. then there's the whole of South America, Africa... loads of export markets to go for.

My main concern will be the bottleneck for logistics/capacity at Shanghai port for exports should demand temporarily drop in China.

 

[Chenkers]

Tesla has brought back a new version of their referral program. Details of the new program are in this link: Referral Program

Also some screen shots in this tweet shared by Sawyer:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1594901028444545024

 

[Max Plaid]

14.3k registered in China, very good indeed:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1594979165324816385

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

14.3k registered in China, very good indeed:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1594979165324816385

Down another 7% tomorrow .

In reality, November well on its way to being the highest 2nd month local sales deliveries ever. 50-55k local sales and another 45k-50k in exports.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Not necessarily, because the MM need to delta hedge the calls they sell by buying shares.

But MMs hedge only a fraction of the no. of shares covered by a Call contract, depending on the strike price and the IV. So for example, if an investor sells 100 shares @ 170 and buys 2 LEAPS @ 270, the MM may only end up buying 50 shares as a hedge immediately. The net effect is still downward pressure on the SP when an investor sells shares to buy LEAPS.

 

[Todesbuckler]

China insured units in November (incl. one day of October) so far: 39,500 units
Tesla MIC 31 Oct-6 Nov: 11,195
Tesla MIC 7-13 Nov: 13,939
Tesla MIC 14-20 Nov: 14,366

Prior record retail sales in the second month of a quarter: 34,502 units
With more than a week left in November, >50,000 insured units / retail sales should be possible.

Quarter-to-date retail sales / insured units: 17,200+39,500= 56,700 units

Some additional math:
Let's say Tesla produces around 260,000-270,000 units in Shanghai.
Export could be about 110,000-125,000 units.
-> 145,000-150,000 units left for retail sales in China.

Retail sales / insured units so far: 56,700
+ a bit more than one week in November: 15,000
+ December sales in line with prior 3. month of a quarter: 65,000-78,000
= China retail sales 136,700-149,700

So, it seems possible to sell and export most cars. However, uncertainty over demand and Covid restrictions might affect retail sales in December.

 

[JusRelax]

Down another 7% tomorrow .

In reality, November well on its way to being the highest 2nd month local sales deliveries ever. 50-55k local sales and another 45k-50k in exports.

You think we'll still be down 7% even with decent 14k+ numbers, and Tesla China also denying rumors that orders are lower than expected after price cuts? I hope you're wrong... but with the market the way it is now, I don't think this is enough positive news to change the sentiment on TSLA.

Tesla China denies rumor that EV orders are lower than expected

Tesla China has issued a statement denying local reports claiming that orders for its vehicles have been lower than expected.

www.teslarati.com

 

[elasalle]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1594925146195648512

Aus ships are not in Franco’s list
Cheers

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

China insured units in November (incl. one day of October) so far: 39,500 units
Tesla MIC 31 Oct-6 Nov: 11,195
Tesla MIC 7-13 Nov: 13,939
Tesla MIC 14-20 Nov: 14,366

Prior record retail sales in the second month of a quarter: 34,502 units
With more than a week left in November, >50,000 insured units / retail sales should be possible.

Quarter-to-date retail sales / insured units: 17,200+39,500= 56,700 units

View attachment 877084

Some additional math:
Let's say Tesla produces around 260,000 units in Shanghai.
Export could be about 110,000 units.
-> 150,000 units left for retail sales in China.

Retail sales / insured units so far: 56,700
+ a bit more than one week in November: 15,000
+ December sales in line with prior 3. month of a quarter: 65,000-78,000
= China retail sales 136,700-149,700

So, it seems possible to sell most cars. However, uncertainty over demand and Covid restrictions might affect retail sales in December.

I think you’re probably looking at more like 270k total production but more like 125-130 exports. I expect Shanghai to export around 30-35k in December to continue unwinding the wave.

 

[Todesbuckler]

I think you’re probably looking at more like 270k total production but more like 125-130 exports. I expect Shanghai to export around 30-35k in December to continue unwinding the wave.

Good point. I agree production should be higher than 260,00 units. I edited my initial post.

 

[elasalle]

I think you’re probably looking at more like 270k total production but more like 125-130 exports. I expect Shanghai to export around 30-35k in December to continue unwinding the wave.

Was it logistics issues in Q3 or unwinding the wave?
Shipping costs are going down right and beggars can’t be choosers

No tooling stoppage, no Covid impact to export ( mostly done)
Last leg of quarter… mostly domestic

Bumper harvest

 

[Artful Dodger]

With Berlin ramping up the need to export MIC cars also is impacted which also means more of the MIC cars have to be sold in China.

Non sequitur. China is Tesla's primary export hub. There are literally dozens of countries beyond Europe that still do not receive any Tesla's at all.

Further, we were informed yesterday by @NicoV that all MIC cars destined for Europe are ALREADY sold, and that the ONLY Tesla's available for delivery in Europe before the end of 2022 are more expensive MIB Model Ys (which btw have excellent profit margins due to the local tax breaks and shipping costs).

 

[bkp_duke]

Anyone have European registration data? I don't remember who, but someone used to post one or more countries and track them against the competition.

Berlin by all appearances is ramping well (on schedule), and I would expect that to start to show up as a "smoothing of the wave" for local European deliveries.

 

[Todesbuckler]

Anyone have European registration data? I don't remember who, but someone used to post one or more countries and track them against the competition.

Berlin by all appearances is ramping well (on schedule), and I would expect that to start to show up as a "smoothing of the wave" for local European deliveries.

You can find monthly data here: Wiki - Tesla Europe Registration Stats
For Norway, Sweden, Spain and the Netherlands, daily data is available here: Electric Vehicle registrations in Europe: 14 countries, 90+% of BEV market
For Norway, I also like this website with VIN data: Tesla Registration Stats
(today new record VIN from Berlin: 048340)

 

[Johann Koeber]

Tesla has brought back a new version of their referral program. Details of the new program are in this link: Referral Program

Also some screen shots in this tweet shared by Sawyer:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1594901028444545024

Not available in Germany (yet?).

Looks like Tesla is activating a demand lever.

 

[Johann Koeber]

I have two Model S Plaid on order in Germany.

Yesterday the invoice was ready. The cars are to arrive at my Service Center on 12.12. with pick up to be scheduled shortly thereafter.

I hope you can sympathize with how happy I am. I expect it to be a HUGE upgrade of my 2013 MS 85P.

How is this relates to TSLA? These will be some of the first deliveries in Europe - excellent for Q4 margin.