Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[M|S|M MYP]

Tesla, GM facing 'a nightmare' in China, analyst says

As mainland China backs away from its zero-COVID policy and loosens restrictions, business optimism and a slight return to normalcy are welcome changes for citizens and investors.

finance.yahoo.com

BUY SIGNAL y'all!!! GM facing a nightmare in China?

 

[EV forever]

Hi All

I just received the following text from Tesla regarding my upcoming delivery of model Y. We have a Y on order since about August with expected delivery window this December.

“Tesla Update: Hi ###, your Model Y (RN11777*****) will be available for delivery soon.

Take delivery of your Model 3 or Model Y this month to get $3,750 toward your new vehicle.

Visit your Tesla app to track your estimated delivery timing. The price adjustment will be reflected prior to delivery.

ts.la/app”

I am wondering is this is mainly to avoid folks delaying delivery to January at expecting the IRA rebates next year. We were planning to take delivery in December anyway as we don’t expect to qualify for any EV related rebates, so are very happy to get $3750 off from Tesla.

Haven’t posted or read this forum for seven weeks now just to give myself a break. But was curious to see what other folks think of this rebate.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Hi All

I just received the following text from Tesla regarding my upcoming delivery of model Y. We have a Y on order since about August with expected delivery window this December.

“Tesla Update: Hi ###, your Model Y (RN11777*****) will be available for delivery soon.

Take delivery of your Model 3 or Model Y this month to get $3,750 toward your new vehicle.

Visit your Tesla app to track your estimated delivery timing. The price adjustment will be reflected prior to delivery.

ts.la/app”

I am wondering is this is mainly to avoid folks delaying delivery to January at expecting the IRA rebates next year. We were planning to take delivery in December anyway as we don’t expect to qualify for any EV related rebates, so are very happy to get $3750 off from Tesla.

Haven’t posted or read this forum for seven weeks now just to give myself a break. But was curious to see what other folks think of this rebate.

Yes

 

[betstarship]

Because the economy is still growing and adding jobs. As much as the market has gone down and housing has come to a stop, the consumer is still doing pretty well and there's more open jobs than unemployed which gives the employees continued firepower to push wage growth. It has been made very clear by the fed that this needs to stop to put a stop to systematic inflation. And so, the fed will continue to raise rates and hold longer than expected, which will cause the recession. Powell made it very clear that they can work with "fixing" a recession much easier than dealing with this kind of inflation. Good news is bad news. This pivot is a pipe dream. Get some cash together. With the exception of TSLA I've sold off the last of my holdings on this rally.

To add, I think this recession will be very very good for Tesla in the long run, not that they needed yet another tailwind.

Personally, I think the rest of the world needs to be incorporated into the tech workforce - there's plenty of people worldwide that need jobs and the US can leverage that to gain more a foothold as nations struggle with climate change and infighting.

That's not happening as quick as it should. It's virtually impossible to stop internet disruption without just shutting down the Internet...which Starlink de-risks from happening on a nation-state level.

 

[Artful Dodger]

If you consider the CPI release on Tuesday and the Fed interest rate decision on Wednesday next week to be the end of the safe manipulation zone, then the most likely cover/load up day for those pushing the stock down would be Monday.

Indeed, this also occurred to me, as I mentioned with this comment yesterday:

So... it's just a coincidence that Boomburg says production cuts could happen "as soon as the day before the CPI Print Monday"?

 

[kemallette]

Very good view! I like the way you zoomed out to see the big picture! This is something I did a lot when I was starting out (and still do a lot today).

I do wish you had explained how you selected your "sampling" of the biggest dot-com performers. I noticed it didn't include QCOM which confused me. Being lazy I wanted to see if the OpenAI chat bot was any good for doing stock research so I asked it how much QCOM appreciated between Jan 1, 1995 and December 31, 1999.

But I was getting a different answer each time I asked the same question. So I did a quick and dirty Yahoo stock chart which is only approximate because it doesn't necessarily capture the exact beginning and end of year (I should have done a 5 year chart for the exact dates). But the bottom line is that between the beginning of 1995 and the end of 1999 QCOM went from about a split-adjusted $1.50/share to $88.00/share for an appreciation of 5,766%. (58-bagger). That's far better performance than in your examples. Interestingly, half of those gains happened in 1999.

Which made me wonder why QCOM wasn't included. As I recall, they entered the S&P 500 in the middle of 1999.

Thank you! My original post in 2020 links to an article first published here: No, This Isn’t a Repeat of the Dot-Com Bubble. I've just used the same companies as the author, but I'm happy to add QCOM to the list in the future. It certainly helps paint the picture of the exuberance of the dot-com era.

Here is some more source & background pertaining to quoted areas of the post:​

... (I-bonds hit over 9% for individuals!)

For anyone that is not familiar with I-Bonds, it's an inflation adjusted bond offered to US citizens from the treasury limited to $10,000 per year.​

• I-Bond Overview
• Historical I-Bond Rate Chart

And now enjoys:

• industry leading margins, earnings, growth
• virtually no debt
• ~$20b war chest of cash

I'm sure everyone here is very familiar with margins, earnings, growth, and how phenomenal those are versus the rest of the industry so I won't bother with that. Here are some details from Latest Tesla 10-Q (Q3 2022) showing cash and debt:​

• Exact cash and cash equivalents is $19,532
• Details about debt are shown here:
  
• Here is Tesla's (long term) Debt to Equity ratio vs industry and peers. Note that this is comparing automotive Q2 to Tesla's Q1 and from different sources. But, it's still helpful generally showing where Tesla falls (really good) as well as the trend. These are from Statista and YCharts.

​

Spoiler: Several debt to equity charts showing where Tesla falls

​

Supply chain shortages have eased significantly and surpluses have popped up in retail here and there.

• FRED Retailers Inventories (more info about what that is: Census MTIS)
  
• Global Container Freight Index
  
• Unfortunately, I don't have a good set of sources for some of the major retailer conference calls. But, a major theme has been inventory and supply chain management. What execs are saying now versus 12 & 24 months ago has shifted considerably from managing supply shocks and shortages to handling and ensuring inventories don't build too much.

 

[Artful Dodger]

I think it is fair to say if markets go red tomorrow on PPI, TSLA tests 166. If that doesn’t hold…

Missed it by that much...

Cheers to the Longs!

 

[thesmokingman]

Lmao, Stellantis is gonna idle their plant that makes Cherokees for SIX freaking months and the stock is down what... -2.3%?

 

[Artful Dodger]

there's more open jobs than unemployed which gives the employees continued firepower to push wage growth. It has been made very clear by the fed that this needs to stop to put a stop to systematic inflation.

JPow's comments last month were a little more nuanced than than. He said he did not want to create unemployment, and we can see that wage growth is still below the inflation rate. So I think its highly unlikely that the Fed is motivated to crush employment to tame inflation.

 

[Discoducky]

Last part of the last sentence is honestly the sincerest thing I've heard an ICE company say...

Lmao, Stellantis is gonna idle their plant that makes Cherokees for SIX freaking months and the stock is down what... -2.3%?

https://twitter.com/x/status/1601309809881796608

 

[hitchhiker]

Why is it a foregone conclusion that there will be a recession? The economy is still growing and adding jobs.

Because people have been saying so loudly for a year now. We've basically talked ourselves into one.

 

[Usain]

Hi All

I just received the following text from Tesla regarding my upcoming delivery of model Y. We have a Y on order since about August with expected delivery window this December.

“Tesla Update: Hi ###, your Model Y (RN11777*****) will be available for delivery soon.

Take delivery of your Model 3 or Model Y this month to get $3,750 toward your new vehicle.

Visit your Tesla app to track your estimated delivery timing. The price adjustment will be reflected prior to delivery.

ts.la/app”

I am wondering is this is mainly to avoid folks delaying delivery to January at expecting the IRA rebates next year. We were planning to take delivery in December anyway as we don’t expect to qualify for any EV related rebates, so are very happy to get $3750 off from Tesla.

Haven’t posted or read this forum for seven weeks now just to give myself a break. But was curious to see what other folks think of this rebate.

The price adjustment has been discussed here already.

My take is that I'm surprised it was not more generous and that it was not offered sooner. Some dropoff in December demand was expected due to the IRA. But it wasn't nearly as bad as I expected. So I think this bodes well for Q4 US delivery numbers.

 

[elasalle]

Last part of the last sentence is honestly the sincerest thing I've heard an ICE company say...

https://twitter.com/x/status/1601309809881796608

Seems like Reuters mistook Detroit for Shanghai earlier today

 

[wipster]

I kinda like this piece of news better than all other ones today (sorry if this had been posted).

Tesla scores highest brand intimacy rating for auto companies 2022

Tesla received the highest brand intimacy rating for an automotive brand in a report that looked into 600 companies worldwide.

www.teslarati.com

Great headline and article, but it needs to be on some publication that does not cater towards Tesla like Teslarati or DriveTeslaCanada. While I love those pubs, we're the only ones that read them. Somehow these articles need to be featured on Barron's, Bloomberg, WSJ, or even car rags like MotorTrend or Car & Driver. How we get an advocate to feed them to those publications I don't rightly know. @Max Plaid and I have some ideas that I've communicated to Martin Viecha, but have yet to hear back. If and/or when I hear anything I'll post it here.

p.s., I invited him to come visit this forum, and Elon was copied, so be on your best behavior... as usual that is... ,;-)

 

[thesmokingman]

Last part of the last sentence is honestly the sincerest thing I've heard an ICE company say...

https://twitter.com/x/status/1601309809881796608

I suppose it's sincere... but I don't feel for them and it was kind of the fat lady singing. They were the slowest to transition, acted like they were put off by EVs and the transition lol.

Stellantis CEO complains about being forced to make EVs and not knowing how to profit from them

Stellantis CEO Carlos Tavares made some interesting comments that amounted to claiming that electric vehicles are being “imposed” on them,...

electrek.co

Tavares makes it sound like an industry problem when it’s actually a problem with just some automakers, like Stellantis.

Stellantis criticizes EU's 2035 ban on fossil fuel vehicles

Automaker Stellantis' CEO Carlos Tavares on Monday (October 17) used the occasion of Paris Motor Show 2022 to call for a re-negotiation of the EU's proposed 2035 ban on fossil fuel cars, arguing that hybrid vehicles should be given a bigger role in the transition to zero-emission vehicles.

www.digitimes.com

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

The price adjustment has been discussed here already.

My take is that I'm surprised it was not more generous and that it was not offered sooner. Some dropoff in December demand was expected due to the IRA. But it wasn't nearly as bad as I expected. So I think this bodes well for Q4 US delivery numbers.

Depending on how much Austin ramped up this quarter and if Fremont expanded production a bit + all orders in Q4 that were purchased with FSD or any FSD subscription purchases in Q4, it's not entirely out of the question that US gross margins expanded in Q4 even if you factor in the $3500 price temporary price cut.

 

[CorneliusXX]

Tesla, GM facing 'a nightmare' in China, analyst says

As mainland China backs away from its zero-COVID policy and loosens restrictions, business optimism and a slight return to normalcy are welcome changes for citizens and investors.

finance.yahoo.com

View attachment 883169

BUY SIGNAL y'all!!! GM facing a nightmare in China?

We should promote him to the Tesla board to look after retail investors

 

[CorneliusXX]

The next time Mr Musk's incentive package is up for reconsideration, I am going to remind those in this thread, and every institutional investor still in my Rolodex, and every member of Tesla's BoD of his above statement.

The little that is needed could be something small like going private, moving to Austin, or a convo with a foreign leader. Not worth paying if you ask me.

 

[CorneliusXX]

View attachment 882990

Is this legitimately AI driven?

 

[jerry33]

Great headline and article, but it needs to be on some publication that does not cater towards Tesla like Teslarati or DriveTeslaCanada. While I love those pubs, we're the only ones that read them. Somehow these articles need to be featured on Barron's, Bloomberg, WSJ, or even car rags like MotorTrend or Car & Driver. How we get an advocate to feed them to those publications I don't rightly know. @Max Plaid and I have some ideas that I've communicated to Martin Viecha, but have yet to hear back. If and/or when I hear anything I'll post it here.

p.s., I invited him to come visit this forum, and Elon was copied, so be on your best behavior... as usual that is... ,;-)

You can always pay them to print the articles. That's what the other companies do.