Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[joh01652]

The gap between what you think you know and what you acknow about TA is so large that I find this conversation futile. The 2 charts have little in common outside of important pivot dates that correspond to SPY tops and bottoms but please, keep pretending like you are the expert chartist here. Try some day trading while you are at it. See how far you’ll get.

Respectfully, you gambled using charts and you lost. You have no one to blame but yourself. You made assumptions and built them into a hypothesis (TA). You tested your hypothesis. Your hypothesis failed. Elon did not hold a gun to your head and force your hand. This is not Elon’s fault. This is how science works. Like @Gigapress quote from Feynman says, it doesn’t matter how beautiful your theory is, it doesn’t matter if it predicted accurately the last 5000 times in a row for you, “If it doesn’t agree with experiment, it’s wrong.” You, sir, thought you had a handle on reality, but ultimately the outcome of your experiment worked against you. Your assumptions about reality were wrong. Deal with it and learn from it. TA may be helpful sometimes, but it is not reality.

These past few weeks should serve as a reminder to everyone here that the models and images we create in our minds to make day-to-day decisions do not accurately reflect infinitely chaotic, unpredictable, risky reality.

Blaming Musk and ranting here isn’t going to help. Instead, if you want to win, you either need to calmly reevaluate your model and try again; or, like all the old timers recommend, find a high-quality stock and hold it and hope some Black Swan doesn’t crash it to zero. That’s all one can do. And that’s what many of us here have done and we’re still winning (at least for now). Your TA model didn’t predict TSLA’s massive run up, and it didn’t predict this major downturn. Let this be a lesson. Scientific modeling is not reality. Some people will never learn this. They will forever be dazzled by their own brilliance and charts and graphs and models, and congratulate themselves when things go their way, and will be quick to blame others when they fail. The fact of the matter is you didn’t work hard enough, and you didn’t listen to seasoned investors who have survived through the years, like @StealthP3D, Buffet, Lynch and Taleb. Avoiding ruin should be at the top of your list every day, in whatever you're doing. It's like Elon says, you know you are always wrong, try to be less wrong.

Maybe tape these to your bathroom mirror:

Don’t make bets you can’t afford to lose.

It aint what you don’t know that’ll get you into to trouble, it’s what you know for sure that just ain’t so. —Mark Twain

In order to succeed you must first survive. —Warren Buffet

 

[SunCatcher]

And yeah, I agree with what you wrote, StealthP3D, Tesla has done a great job at execution this year and if the press had any integrity at all, they would be lauding it. But they don't have any integrity, we already know that.

Elon fully knows this as well. In fact, the way to see the media suddenly grow some faux integrity, would be if Tesla chose to dip a toe in the water of advertising. Even though they don't need it to generate sales; all of a sudden "you've got a friend".

 

[Atomsla]

Yes, that would have been much more appropriate a set of statements than my unAudiesque attempt at jocularity.

Every time you post I'm excited to see what words you've used that I've never seen before. I could google these fine specimens, but I'd prefer to maintain the mystery they are to me now. Its just more fun that way - plus now I can assign my own meaning to them and make your post more entertaining for myself. (well, perhaps, because I can't be sure). Might make me seem like a child, but oh well

 

[thx1139]

When he sells at the top we have complaints about Elon breaking the uptrend. When he sells at the bottom we have complaints about Elon breaking support levels. Let’s face it, there is never a good time to sell that many shares.

And he can’t spread the sales over a longer time period as it would cause frontrunning, like it did when he sold to cover his $11 billion tax bill. At least this year he finishes before the mandatory forms come out. That minimizes the risk of frontrunning.

My issue is he created an environment before he sold that dragged down the stock price, then sells dragging it further down also creating the perception now is the time to sell without any understanding why he did. I dont know is it against SEC regulations for him to tell investors why he sold. Otherwise creates speculation of why would he sell now when the stock has been hit so badly already. Is the quarter going to end poorly. Negative speculation isnt good.

 

[dl003]

Respectfully, you gambled using charts and you lost. You have no one to blame but yourself. You made assumptions and built them into a hypothesis (TA). You tested your hypothesis. Your hypothesis failed. Elon did not hold a gun to your head and force your hand. This is not Elon’s fault. This is how science works. Like @Gigapress quote from Feynman says, it doesn’t matter how beautiful your theory is, it doesn’t matter if it predicted accurately the last 5000 times in a row for you, “If it doesn’t agree with experiment, it’s wrong.” You, sir, thought you had a handle on reality, but ultimately the outcome of your experiment worked against you. Your assumptions about reality were wrong. Deal with it and learn from it. TA may be helpful sometimes, but it is not reality.

These past few weeks should serve as a reminder to everyone here that the models and images we create in our minds to make day-to-day decisions do not accurately reflect infinitely chaotic, unpredictable, risky reality.

Blaming Musk and ranting here isn’t going to help. Instead, if you want to win, you either need to calmly reevaluate your model and try again; or, like all the old timers recommend, find a high-quality stock and hold it and hope some Black Swan doesn’t crash it to zero. That’s all one can do. And that’s what many of us here have done and we’re still winning (at least for now). Your TA model didn’t predict TSLA’s massive run up, and it didn’t predict this major downturn. Let this be a lesson. Scientific modeling is not reality. Some people will never learn this. They will forever be dazzled by their own brilliance and charts and graphs and models, and congratulate themselves when things go their way, and will be quick to blame others when they fail. The fact of the matter is you didn’t work hard enough, and you didn’t listen to seasoned investors who have survived through the years, like @StealthP3D, Buffet, Lynch and Taleb. Avoiding ruin should be at the top of your list every day, in whatever you're doing. It's like Elon says, you know you are always wrong, try to be less wrong.

Maybe tape these to your bathroom mirror:

Don’t make bets you can’t afford to lose.

It aint what you don’t know that’ll get you into to trouble, it’s what you know for sure that just ain’t so. —Mark Twain

In order to succeed you must first survive. —Warren Buffet

Excuse me, why do you automatically assumed that I gambled and lost? My long term account which is 100% TSLA is only down 27% this year while you people are down 60%. LMAO. You people and your assumptions. I'm sharing with you my insights not because I lost but because I'm one of the few people here qualified for reading the chart and able to see through your ignorance.

Wanna see how I did last year?

so no. I'm far from being scared or frustrated. You're just making assumptions to make yourself feel better about burying your head in the sand.

 

[AudubonB]

Every time you post I'm excited to see what words you've used that I've never seen before. I could google these fine specimens, but I'd prefer to maintain the mystery they are to me now. Its just more fun that way - plus now I can assign my own meaning to them and make your post more entertaining for myself. (well, perhaps, because I can't be sure). Might make me seem like a child, but oh well

At least someone is getting productive use out of this thread.

 

[Knightshade]

When he sells at the top we have complaints about Elon breaking the uptrend. When he sells at the bottom we have complaints about Elon breaking support levels. Let’s face it, there is never a good time to sell that many shares.

And he can’t spread the sales over a longer time period as it would cause frontrunning, like it did when he sold to cover his $11 billion tax bill. With this year's sales at least he finishes before the mandatory forms come out. That minimizes the risk of frontrunning.

This is why so many suggest his selling on the open market, rather than through a dark pool or negotiated sale with a major bank, is dumb. For exactly all the drawbacks you list involved in any way he does the open market route.

 

[JRP3]

Blaming Musk and ranting here isn’t going to help.

That's not what he's done, he clearly and rationally presented his viewpoints backed up with data. Very far from "ranting".

 

[mongo]

You seem to have missed the word "deadline" in @mongo 's message. As he pointed out in his 2nd sentence, this is typical of the past, file 3 days on the deadline for the first day. He's not saying it only includes Monday's trades. Mongo is saying "this fits his pattern" and it's ~22Million shares round number. I think his implication is that this "round" is done.

But I think there are more rounds coming in the near future. An earlier discussion suggested the absurd notion that only $3B was "high interest" debt for twitter. Yeah, $1B in yearly interest from a $3B loan is high interest all right - 33% ! There's no chance the rate is that high so no, the loan isn't just $3B. It's more like $14B so another 3 rounds of Elon selling like this could be in our near future.

The financing had different tiers. https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1494730/000110465922049844/tm2213189d8_ex99-h.htm
The increasing rate bridge loans (if used) would be the worst at 6.75% and 10% over SOFR and increase by 0.5% every 3 months.
Main Term loan is better at 4.75% over SOFR or 3.75% over ABR and decreases with less loan to value:

Term Loan Facility
At the option of the Borrower, initially, Term SOFR plus 4.75% or ABR plus 3.75%.
Revolving Facility
At the option of the Borrower, initially, Term SOFR plus 4.50% or ABR plus 3.50%.

From and after the delivery by the Borrower to the Bank Administrative Agent of financial statements for the period ending at least one full fiscal quarter following the Closing Date, the applicable margins under the Revolving Facility shall be subject to step-downs to (A) Term SOFR plus 4.25% or ABR plus 3.25% or (B) Term SOFR plus 4.00% or ABR plus 3.00%, as applicable, based upon achievement of a First Lien Leverage Ratio of 0.50:1.00 less than the Closing Date First Lien Leverage Ratio or 1.00:1.00 less than the Closing Date First Lien Leverage Ratio, respectively.

Interest on the Secured Bridge Loans for the first three-month period commencing on the Closing Date shall be payable at Term SOFR (for interest periods of 1, 3 or 6 months, as selected by the Borrower and, for purposes of the Secured Bridge Facility, with a 0.00% “floor”) plus 675 basis points (the “Secured Bridge Initial Margin”). Thereafter, subject to the Secured Total Cap (as defined in the Fee Letter), interest shall be payable at prevailing Term SOFR for the interest period selected by the Borrower plus the Secured Bridge Applicable Margin (as defined below) and shall increase by an additional 50 basis points at the beginning of each three-month period subsequent to the initial three-month period for so long as the Secured Bridge Loans are outstanding (except on the Secured Conversion Date) (the Secured Bridge Initial Margin together with each 50 basis point increase therein described above, the “Secured Bridge Applicable Margin”).

Interest on the Unsecured Bridge Loans for the first three-month period commencing on the Closing Date shall be payable at Term SOFR (for interest periods of 1, 3 or 6 months, as selected by the Borrower and, for purposes of the Unsecured Bridge Facility, with a 0.00% “floor”) plus 1000 basis points (the “Unsecured Bridge Initial Margin”). Thereafter, subject to the Unsecured Total Cap (as defined in the Fee Letter), interest shall be payable at prevailing Term SOFR for the interest period selected by the Borrower plus the Unsecured Bridge Applicable Margin (as defined below) and shall increase by an additional 50 basis points at the beginning of each three-month period subsequent to the initial three-month period for so long as the Unsecured Bridge Loans are outstanding (except on the Unsecured Conversion Date) (the Unsecured Bridge Initial Margin together with each 50 basis point increase therein described above, the “Unsecured Bridge Applicable Margin”).

 

[2daMoon]

Elon fully knows this as well. In fact, the way to see the media suddenly grow some faux integrity, would be if Tesla chose to dip a toe in the water of advertising. Even though they don't need it to generate sales; all of a sudden "you've got a friend".

If Tesla were to ever go that route it would be great if they did it without investing in the mainstream media. I think the stream of videos they have been producing on their YouTube channel fit this nicely. The instructional aspect that familiarizes a buyer, or a potential buyer, with the features and provides a reference to compare to when shopping the EV market.

Imagine then, what if someone had control of a popular social media company and were to change its structure to offer a second YouTube type of outlet for Tesla.

Going further out on a limb, what if, rather than debunking FUD with fact on non-MSM channels, instead, they hire personalities like John Cleese to satirize the FUD in an entertaining way that paints those generating it poorly. As they deserve to be tarred and feathered anyway, right? Yeah, that would be good, clean fun.

Doing something like this would fit nicely into the "you've got a friend" attitude you suggest and would be a creative application of cash that could easily be a boon for Tesla.

 

[Chartered321]

Who's selling at $154 ? Has someone lost his mind?

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

My issue is he created an environment before he sold that dragged down the stock price, then sells dragging it further down also creating the perception now is the time to sell without any understanding why he did. I dont know is it against SEC regulations for him to tell investors why he sold. Otherwise creates speculation of why would he sell now when the stock has been hit so badly already. Is the quarter going to end poorly. Negative speculation isnt good.

The last few times we've not heard why Elon is selling and neither did he indicate that he 'finished selling'. It could be that he has more selling to do, but it could also be he got warned by the SEC not to tweet about the reason or timing of his stock sales anymore. That would make sense, his tweets about his stock sales have a huge impact on the SP.

 

[TSLA Pilot]

The number of "inventory" cars on those sites are ~4 days of Fremont production. I've seen much higher levels back in 2019 and 2020.

Are some people cancelling, sure, but the inventory numbers aren't jumping day over day to support the theory of mass cancellations? No.

What inventory numbers were you seeing before, in '19 and '20?

The inventory tracking sites now show 400 to 600 M3 and MY's, and that just what Tesla is willing to show externally--I posit the numbers are far greater internally as they are running out of places to park cars (or so I've heard) . . . .

For those us watching the ever-dropping TSLA stock price, the IRA $7.5k Federal Tax Credit is a huge part of that inventory glut, BUT so are Elon's never-ending TSLA sales, combined with his chronic "How many potential Tesla buyers can I alienate today?" Tweets.

It's getting on my nerves because he's so simultaneously brilliant, and insanely stupid and out of touch with reality. It has cost me so many, many dollars as well with having to buy/waste puts to keep the margin monster at bay.

 

[EverettRuess]

Who's selling at $154 ? Has someone lost his mind?

Elon

 

[joh01652]

Excuse me, why do you automatically assumed that I gambled and lost? My long term account which is 100% TSLA is only down 27% this year while you people are down 60%. LMAO. You people and your assumptions. I'm sharing with you my insights not because I lost but because I'm one of the few people here qualified for reading the chart and able to see through your ignorance.
View attachment 885676


Wanna see how I did last year?

View attachment 885680
so no. I'm far from being scared or frustrated. You're just making assumptions to make yourself feel better about burying your head in the sand.

Well congratulations then. You are right, I assumed you lost because you come across as unhappy, I guess that's how I interpreted your messages. You seem angry. Sooo many posts of teeth-gnashing and hand-wringing these days directed at Elon, who, over the years, has made many of us HODL'ers quite financially comfortable. Carry on.

 

[unk45]

Anyone confirming this? Maybe a quote with some context? I find this hard to believe Elon bought on margin. Maybe Chamath threw it out as one possible reason someone sells?

He did borrow on margin to buy Twitter, among other things. His primary source fo can income is selling shares since his cash income is essentially zero.

 

[elasalle]

For the ship trackers ...

the latest ship to AUS - Liberty Ace has the following ports of call:

So these AUS ships not coming directly from China? So is it possible that the EU ships (which usually) go through Singapore - offload a batch or two for AUS? else how are the cars getting to Singapore?

If it is the 1st, then # of ships for quarter is 23 (from Franco's) list. And we cannot further count the 12+4 ships to AUS/NZ ..

 

[dl003]

Well congratulations then. You are right, I assumed you lost because you come across as unhappy, I guess that's how I interpreted your messages. You seem angry. Sooo many posts of teeth-gnashing and hand-wringing these days directed at Elon, who, over the years, has made many of us HODL'ers quite financially comfortable. Carry on.

I'm unhappy because this board is supposed to be a place for logics but turns out it's just an echo chamber of which I'm a member, not in this instance but in many others. I've never told anyone to sell and have defended TSLA all these years but some people think they're better than me just because I spit facts they don't like to hear. It's perfectly possible for me to hold on to TSLA and never sell while having a strong opinion why his manner of selling stocks is the definition

 

[EverettRuess]

Elon

There goes the low. I have an idea for him instead of selling Tesla stock. Maybe he could sell trading cards of himself on the internet. Lets say $99 a crack.

 

[unk45]

At least someone is getting productive use out of this thread.

More than just someone. How else would any of us know of Paxson, AK or even travel conditions on Richardson and Denali? Don't sell yourself short just because you're also a grammaticist, a linguist, and the only person here (probably) who has personal knowledge of Vale do Rio Doce, at least the company.

Anyway, 'productive' is in the eye of the user is it not?
Those of us who still cannot afford to sell TSLA because of capital gains tax even if we wanted to probably also understand that the only recourse Elon has to cash is either borrowing on shares or selling some. After all he's already sold his houses.