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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
We are going to get the official Q4 Production and Deliveries reports soon.
The latest videos I have seen had a pile of export cars on the dock in Shanghai. It certainly didn't look like a disaster, the biggest problem seemed to be no ship to transport those cars.
There may or may not be a question on this in the earnings call, and they may or may not choose to answer it.
Elon is already on record as saying the high interest rates are making car sales more challenging, and Tesla may need to cut prices.. That is relevant and official information, and we might hear more about that in the earnings call.
If shipping logistics out of China are challenging, we may hear more about that. IMO if they can ship them, there are always customers somewhere in the world who want a new EV,
Unwinding the wave was in part due to shipping and delivery challenges. Perhaps if "unwinding the wave" has been partially reversed in Q4, that means deliveries are flowing well, and/or there are not enough ships for exports.
navguy12
Active Member
Are those BYD numbers for pure EVs, or a mixture of plug in hybrids as well?
thesmokingman
Active Member
BYD have always been take with heaping grain of salt because their numbers are not strictly BEVs. PPL using BYD as some sort of narrative... well you can figure that out once ya realize BYD numbers and grains of salt.
JusRelax
Active Member
Farzad does a great job of breaking down the impact of the EV tax credit on the US auto market, as well as showing how the EV market would look if Tesla were to favor market share growth over profits:
Two things to report.
1) we cancelled our model x order which just got a VIN assigned 3 months early. With the 70% drop in stock price it didn’t make sense. We’re not alone here considering it got assigned 3 months early.
2) on a road trip to Florida, our model y did great in the cold weather. Better than I remember it, however, charging was terrible. Curious if they released some new updates. Couldn’t get about 200kwh at the 2 250kwh chargers we stopped at and it tailed off fast due to the cold weather < 40 degrees f. So we spent way longer charging than I wanted. With that being said you can now finally go up and down the eastern seaboard on 250 kWh chargers, instead of those slow 120 kWh in nc and sc
1) we cancelled our model x order which just got a VIN assigned 3 months early. With the 70% drop in stock price it didn’t make sense. We’re not alone here considering it got assigned 3 months early.
2) on a road trip to Florida, our model y did great in the cold weather. Better than I remember it, however, charging was terrible. Curious if they released some new updates. Couldn’t get about 200kwh at the 2 250kwh chargers we stopped at and it tailed off fast due to the cold weather < 40 degrees f. So we spent way longer charging than I wanted. With that being said you can now finally go up and down the eastern seaboard on 250 kWh chargers, instead of those slow 120 kWh in nc and sc
So much of the big talking points recently are just noise. We have had them close to every year, some end of the year shutdowns, some first month of the quarter weakness in some region, some figures that look a bit off with Tesla storing some cars in a garage, number of ships not the same as last quarter, some discounts, some promo, some change in default config etc. Did it matter before? No... Maybe this time is different, but I see very little to indicate that and bayesian position should be that it's not different this time.
Imo just look at the big numbers. Are deliveries growing? Is production capacity growing? Are gross margins still good? Is operating profits growing? Those signals have a lot less noise than the other signals and default should be to rely on them.
Tough crowd. I wouldn't consider 200kwh terrible when the battery is not all that warn like the summer months. The competition couldn't even get EA chargers to work and many are stuck charging at <100kwh.
They are still missing many battery plants, FYI to investors.
I think people forgot that Tesla was suppose to have a holiday shut down from Oct 1 -3rd but instead paid triple pay to keep things going. Couldn't have planned it better if they had a crystal ball when they picked end of the year to shut down in the face of the pandemic.
TrendTrader007
Active Member
Several pieces in place for potential rally:
Down 6 straight days
Down 3 weeks
Down 5 straight months
Last 4 trading days of 2022 could reduce YTD loss of -65% (or worsen it)
Futures strongly in green
Collective IQ on Twitter: Collective IQ on TMC ratio at an all time low (I couldn’t handle more than 2 minutes on Twitter)
Too much pessimism overall
Weekly RSI <30
Sentiment Mirror opposite of 14 months ago
I feel so poor I can’t afford a vacation
I propose ratio of collective Twitter IQ : collective TMC IQ
I don’t think it’ll have any contrarian value
That ratio will probably fluctuate between 0.001 to 0.01 hence no practical utility in Tesla stock price forecasts
Down 6 straight days
Down 3 weeks
Down 5 straight months
Last 4 trading days of 2022 could reduce YTD loss of -65% (or worsen it)
Futures strongly in green
Collective IQ on Twitter: Collective IQ on TMC ratio at an all time low (I couldn’t handle more than 2 minutes on Twitter)
Too much pessimism overall
Weekly RSI <30
Sentiment Mirror opposite of 14 months ago
I feel so poor I can’t afford a vacation
I propose ratio of collective Twitter IQ : collective TMC IQ
I don’t think it’ll have any contrarian value
That ratio will probably fluctuate between 0.001 to 0.01 hence no practical utility in Tesla stock price forecasts
Last edited:
SunCatcher
Member
More superchargers opened in one day that I can ever recall seeing. 25! In one day! Most are in China.
Tesla is rockin' it!
Tesla is rockin' it!
Well, I hope this is relevant to the stock - it has bearing on how the incentives are moving inventory.
I had an order for a Model Y in since July 28th this year. It got put on hold until Jan 1 by Tesla when I failed to proceed to arrange for delivery when notified of it's availability this year (a few months earlier than planned)
Due to the incentives I decided to try to get my car, any car, this year. I was advised to just order a car that was listed in inventory as the likelihood of getting my order in queue and delivered in time was slim to nil. I planned to cancel my original order once another car was secured.
It is frustrating dealing with text messages as the sole way to communicate with sales staff, primarily because I was communicating with 3 or 4 people, none of whom identified themselves when posting a question to me. My situation was unique, I had an original order now on hold but not closed out, and cars in 2 locations in the Bay Area that I was willing/attempting to take but it was unclear if I had captured either one going by the website and low level sales people who were frankly confused and confusing the situation.
I got a call today from an obviously elevated position Rep who could both access the data and knew the correct answers. I had been stuck with completing the required documents in the App/Website for either car, as I was taking delivery in CA but residence, insurance and registration will be in WA. The system couldn't handle any of that and it was getting very Medieval gymkhana of an effort to get home with a car. But there is competency at higher levels in Tesla, and all is smooth going at this point.
To sum up; If you weren't aware, the incentives sparked a bonfire of buying, there are NO Teslas available in the US at this point.
Except for one Model Y at Sunnyvale if you move very quickly tomorrow morning ;-).
I had an order for a Model Y in since July 28th this year. It got put on hold until Jan 1 by Tesla when I failed to proceed to arrange for delivery when notified of it's availability this year (a few months earlier than planned)
Due to the incentives I decided to try to get my car, any car, this year. I was advised to just order a car that was listed in inventory as the likelihood of getting my order in queue and delivered in time was slim to nil. I planned to cancel my original order once another car was secured.
It is frustrating dealing with text messages as the sole way to communicate with sales staff, primarily because I was communicating with 3 or 4 people, none of whom identified themselves when posting a question to me. My situation was unique, I had an original order now on hold but not closed out, and cars in 2 locations in the Bay Area that I was willing/attempting to take but it was unclear if I had captured either one going by the website and low level sales people who were frankly confused and confusing the situation.
I got a call today from an obviously elevated position Rep who could both access the data and knew the correct answers. I had been stuck with completing the required documents in the App/Website for either car, as I was taking delivery in CA but residence, insurance and registration will be in WA. The system couldn't handle any of that and it was getting very Medieval gymkhana of an effort to get home with a car. But there is competency at higher levels in Tesla, and all is smooth going at this point.
To sum up; If you weren't aware, the incentives sparked a bonfire of buying, there are NO Teslas available in the US at this point.
Except for one Model Y at Sunnyvale if you move very quickly tomorrow morning ;-).
CyberDutchie
Active Member
Why would we not be down 7 straight days, or 4 straight weeks, or 6 straight months?
I don’t expect any Tesla news before the end of the year that would give hope for a rally. Futures green at best would slow down the decline.
The real question for Tesla stock is: are we done with the margin calls?
Thumper
Active Member
Website shows 52 Model S in various trims available in Washington/Oregon. No discounts.
TrendTrader007
Active Member
So assuming that world is not ending tomorrow and TSLA will not become penny stock in foreseeable future ( both entirely believable potential outcomes if you spend more than 2 minutes on a certain social media platform) what could possibly happen based on few select prior TSLA drawdowns
In early 2016 TSLA fell -42% over 7 weeks then V shaped rally of +91% over next 8 weeks
In early 2020 TsLA fell -63.8% over 7 weeks then initial rebound of 2.48X off lows over next 6 weeks although it continued to march much higher for rest of 2020
In both cases upper weekly bollinger was hit before pullback
Currently TSLA so far drop is - 61.4% over 14 weeks and upper weekly bollinger sits at $335.71 which is 2.77X $121 (assuming $121 as bottom)
Whatever happens it will not be boring
In early 2016 TSLA fell -42% over 7 weeks then V shaped rally of +91% over next 8 weeks
In early 2020 TsLA fell -63.8% over 7 weeks then initial rebound of 2.48X off lows over next 6 weeks although it continued to march much higher for rest of 2020
In both cases upper weekly bollinger was hit before pullback
Currently TSLA so far drop is - 61.4% over 14 weeks and upper weekly bollinger sits at $335.71 which is 2.77X $121 (assuming $121 as bottom)
Whatever happens it will not be boring
EVNow
Well-Known Member
Looks like they jumped the gun on that extra 3,750 incentive. Could have waited ... anyway, good to hear.
TrendTrader007
Active Member
Correct. It’s simply that when things get continually extreme in any given direction there is higher risk of a counter trend move
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