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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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Kind of curious from the TA perspective.

Now that we’ve visited every SP from $400 down to $111. Will people be talking about “Filling the gap” anywhere between here and there? What is the expiration on gap fill need?

If Q4 is a blowout (not a prediction), and Tesla surges to $200/ share in a week. Will TA peeps be talking about “Filling that Gap Up”? What about blasting up to $300 and leaving a bunch of gaps in between?

Listen, I've rigged the game and want to let everyone here in on it. When I sold to cover margin today, well, I sold a little more just to refill the cushions on the couch. I'm ready for $20/share. 🤑

Naturally, doing this should ignite the first stage booster if Murphy has any say in it. 😏
 
Kind of curious from the TA perspective.

Now that we’ve visited every SP from $400 down to $111. Will people be talking about “Filling the gap” anywhere between here and there? What is the expiration on gap fill need?

If Q4 is a blowout (not a prediction), and Tesla surges to $200/ share in a week. Will TA peeps be talking about “Filling that Gap Up”? What about blasting up to $300 and leaving a bunch of gaps in between?
Gaps specifically refer to price ranges not traded.

E.G. Tesla releases P and D of 470 and 430 on 1/2/2023. Having closed at 95, TSLA opens at 120 and proceeds upwards. Now we have a 25 point gap that all TA aficionados assure us will be filled one day. If TSLA were to open at 95 and then trade up to 120 during market hours, that is OK from TA perspective.

What the hell do I know except I have been murdered yet still done much better than many people here, and all that makes me is sad on top of sad.
 
The last sales were NOT to free up cash for TSLA but to free up cash at the expense of TSLA for something else that must not be named. TSLA currently has $21 billion on hand now and is increasing not decreasing at the current moment.
But that all is secondary to me.... I am primarily upset in the way Elon has decided to sell. He could be using dark pools to sell without dropping the price and would have ended up with more money that way, without upsetting the share price as much.
This has already been explained. He sold in the market so that he can't get in trouble with the SEC for shady dealings.
 
It is a stretch. We don't know how many 4680 lines are ready to go live. The 1000/wk is a mere dot on a curve. They could stockpile for CyberTruck like they did with the early castings, or feed a Semi ramp right now. Yes, that's more likely, but I also think we're long overdue for a surprise. So here's my best guess, then I'm back to work.

This inventory cleaning, combined with a Jan 1st deadline for Q4 holds on purchasing new vehicles (quite specific in a couple of instances here including mine, extended to Jan 1st but no later). So why would Jan 1st be relevant on a Sunday with Markets closed? Like why would knowing the # of vehicles sold in Q4 matter, unless something else was disclosed?

New pricing Jan 2nd could be the strategy. It might confirm a demand slump, but what if it's in conjunction with insane Q4 #s combined with insane production ramps at all Factories? It would be a final blow to competitors as the transition could even accelerate. Wow, TSLA about to get more volatile? Let that sink in.
Semi is using 2170 cells not the 4680.
 
An important dynamic to the "demand issues" that is getting so much air time, both in the media and here, is the larger industry context. I don't just mean % gain / loss in units sold. I mean the money and energy invested by each company in order to acquire the demand that they have.

Up until recently it would be reasonable to describe Tesla's sales strategy as "anti-sales". The company had such a long backlog that going out of their way to not stimulate demand was a good idea. That shows up in constantly increasing sales prices, lack of test drive vehicles at stores, and no inventory at stores for immediate delivery.

Meanwhile the competition has not been raising sales prices constantly (though some models, especially when new, went through a buy-flip stage), have plenty of test drive vehicles available, and maintain inventory for immediate delivery. Lots of inventory so you can pick and choose. Note that I consider the ICEV / entire vehicle market to be the competition - I realize that a lot of these market characteristics are specific to ICEV units.

Competition spends quite a lot of money on advertising - Tesla spends ~0.

Product placements in TV / movies are paid for, vs. free.


Tesla has so many levers to pull in order to juice demand, and all of them are simply taking a few steps away from anti-selling.

#1 - discounts / price drops. And with IRA / tax credits returning, Tesla might even be able to raise prices again by $3-5k or so, and still have more than adequate demand to feed the 50%+ annual growth.

#1b - freebie / reduced cost options. Miles of supercharging, free months of FSD, etc..

#2 - I don't have numbers but a big chunk of the new car market is for immediate purchase. Something happens and somebody finds themselves in need of a new car, now. Tesla has been effectively closed out of this market for years. Instead Tesla buyers today need to plan for their delivery months in advance. Get the current lease timed so that its finished just about when the new Tesla arrives, etc.. So build up some inventory, in an amount that Tesla can monitor and continuously adjust in order to move some of the order book / production queue into on hand inventory.

#3 - Use some of those inventory cars to also provide test drives. Tesla buyers today are dependent on existing customers to see / taste / touch / feel / experience what these things are like. At least last I knew and talked to somebody here in the Portland, OR area, Tesla had made the decision to clear out all of the test drive cars. They were getting feedback from people that had been waiting for many months for their cars, and seeing test drive cars. Those things slowed down their own delivery, as well as generated more demand that Tesla couldn't fill. SO if there really is an actual demand problem then use some of that immediate delivery inventory for test drives - do some selling!

#4 - Advertise! OMG. Tesla doesn't need to do traditional auto advertising. They could do an ad (or a series) with a focus on road trips and super charging for instance. More broadly ads that are more focused on education about EV ownership in general, and how Teslas provide the superior EV ownership experience.

#5 - Add a (small) PR department. Really more of a focus on providing a point of contact for the media to ask for quotes, and to provide some degree of company input. It doesn't need to be staffed or operated in a traditional PR department sense - just focus on the particularly bad PR things and lessen their impact.


If Tesla turned on all of those spigots and were selling their vehicles in anything like the fashion the rest of the industry, does anybody doubt the reckless unit growth we'd see? (not a typo :p)
 
TSLA dropped so much, it is now appropriate to start using ex-cash metric for PE etc as it now makes up a non-trivial amount of market cap.
Yeah, it already makes a difference:

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despite the serious selling over last several months, as far as current price action, in my opinion it is all good-
if i am caught wrong footed in a violent sell-off like this, the worst possible thing is for TSLA to drop 1 to 3% in a slow drip fashion over a period of months. this is clearly not the case here. this is a text-book violent climactic sell off which is going to run its course over a period of days to weeks followed by an equally violent rally. a simple analogy would be a tornado or hurricane which never lasts more than days
worst possible scenario is months to years of downtrend, which although possible, seems unlikely given the rapidity of decline.
not a forecast but i would not be at all shocked if this is a sell the rumor and buy the news event when P&D OR ER Happens.
alternatively, we could go even lower another few weeks and then bottom
in any case, those who do not lose their position are likely to have zero problems eventually
no guarantees of course. Tesla might turn out to be next Enron but then i have equal or higher odds of being hit by a comet while walking out tonight