Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Singuy]

Troy estimates over ~25.5k customers purchased FSD Q3 2022, and ~24.7k people bought EAP.

FSD take rate dropped from 8.1% of global sales to 7.4%, most likely due to a higher mix of cars in Asia/EU. However it does not seem the introduction of EAP has affected FSD take rate as 14% of US buyers continue to buy FSD which is flat QOQ! So this is essentially a free revenue stream that did not cannibalize FSD take rate!

This does not include subscription or people who bought FSD after purchase. These numbers are pretty significant to Tesla's bottom line. If all revenue is recognized, this is over half a billion dollars in FSD+EAP sales with Q4 being over 700M if percentage stays constant.

My speculation is a good portion of EAP buyers will eventually convert to FSD since it's just a few thousand away as they see real progress from V11 and beyond.

https://www.patreon.com/posts/73933007

 

[StealthP3D]

I trust Troy over most of the people on this board. As mentioned, he does not have a TSLA position, and I think he does his best to be as objective and as accurate as possible. What good would bias do him? He can't manipulate the actual P&D numbers and the more wrong he is, the more people are going to snipe at him. He gets an indisputable scorecard every 3 months.

Troy doesn't release information once every three months, he releases estimates multiple times through the quarter. It's these mid-quarter estimates that have diverged from commonsense extrapolations and more trustworthy sources far too often. TSLA has huge option volume and changing investor sentiment can be very valuable if someone knows what that sentiment is going to be in advance or how investor sentiment will change in the short-term.

Troy's mid-quarter estimates have been unusually erratic in odd ways, and the fact that they settle down and become more normalized immediately before the actual results are released hides the fact that they were misleading through the quarter. Like you said, his final, end of quarter estimates have to be reasonably good, or he will lose massive amounts of credibility, it's the preliminary estimates that are often particularly odd.

 

[traxila]

Just because he doesn't have a position doesn't mean that he isn't biased.

That is what he says not me. Just tired of seeing his name all the time.

Pretty common amongst journalists and the like, I have no position so I am not biased yadda yadda.

Like I said if you really don’t like him then don’t talk about him.

 

[Criscmt]

I hope you're right and I'm wrong, but that didn't look like any kind of capitulation that I've ever seen.

Do you mind sharing some examples of what you see as capitulation, this cycle or in the past?

 

[Xepa777]

It's not about the person, or personalities, or ad homenium. It's about the analysis, and unreliable methodology, which is the issue. Some call it cherry picking, others call it sampling bias. Lack of rigour is another matter, and far above the head of the average bear.

Last I checked he nailed Q3 better than most others. And he's accurate enough to have a following. And a long standing track record. That's to be respected even if you disagree with his methodologies.

 

[Cult Member]

Last I checked he nailed Q3 better than most others. And he's accurate enough to have a following. And a long standing track record. That's to be respected even if you disagree with his methodologies.

Isn't there a separate thread to discuss, compare, rate, ... , methodologies?

 

[StealthP3D]

Do you mind sharing some examples of what you see as capitulation, this cycle or in the past?

Every situation is different, and I don't want to try to predict how this will play out but generally I expect more volatility around the capitulation point. Often the price drop will accelerate and then buyers will jump in with more gusto, but I haven't seen anything that looks like that here.

To me it feels like robo-trading has been used to get us this low, selling shares back and forth between related parties to walk the price down. It seems like it's been resisting going lower due to natural and disciplined buying pressure at this price point, at least for now, but that they would like to take it down another notch and clear out another level of margin vulnerabilities and stop losses. Of course, natural buying could suddenly kick off at any point which might prevent or delay another attack lower. There might be one more manufactured sharp drop that doesn't last long and that signals to those waiting to build a position that it's now or never. That's what would signal capitulation to me, is a quick drop followed by a 15-20 point move up. To sum it up, it just feels like something is deliberately holding the price down and steady, in an unnatural manner, waiting for opportunity to take it lower.

 

[Prunesquallor]

Still a lot of exports from Shanghai to EU/UK. Should open up a bunch of new targets when GigaBerlin fully ramps.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1608381470220886016

 

[Buckminster]

Biggest bear trap ever created?

 

[Artful Dodger]

Last I checked he nailed Q3 better than most others. And he's accurate enough to have a following. And a long standing track record. That's to be respected even if you disagree with his methodologies.

You didn't check very closely then. He was off massively on end-of-Q3 inventories, on the order of a 20K miss. Further, he missed the shipping/logistics issues at the Port of Shanghai which lead to those increases. It's not clear he has insight into what constitutes a "shipped" vehicle for wholesale when its on the docks. Also the hurricane in Florida led to logistics delays, affecting deliveries.

Having a following often means pandering to the crowd. Many on Patreon want (and are willing to pay for) any bad news, especially frequent bad news. The mainstream financial media is reporting this now because they comb the 'net for negative news, and promptly report any they find. That's a source of systemic bias. Respect a track record using poor methodogy? Stick around. Reversion to the mean will bite back in due course. Luck runs out in the long run.

To do this job properly, you need to have rigour in analysis. Example, he uses weekly insured numbers, but has done no work to characterize that data. How noisy is the data (what is the mean and std deviation). What other factors is it correlated with? (w. correlations to explain variance). How well does weekly ins. data predict monthly delivery data? How well does this model fit for other manufacturors? It's not as easy as saying "weekly ins. down 20% OMG".

There are also unaddressed issues concerning construct validity. Does "weekly insured" data correlate well to the underlying variable of interest, quarterly deliveries? Is it systematically underreported due to time lag? (biased low). You have to show your work. No summary statistics provided at EOQ, no goodness-of-fit, no std.err. of estimate. Simply retweeting numbers for your patreons minutes after release in China is NOT analysis, it is hucksterism.

My first job after I graduated University was instructing an intermediate statistics lab course (Test Theory 497). Nothing I have seen in his work indicates rigour in analysis, nor does it demonstrate significant skill in forecast over the community forecasts compiled by Tesla IR each quarter.

Want fame and fortune with a Stats job? Plot how his quarterly predictions change over the course of each quarter for the past 4 years, and see if you can characterize the trend. Then, using common statistical tools, you can remove that trend, extract the signal from noise, and make money off your own patreon (by predicting what his predicion will be by the end of Qtr). I bet you can do it by week 2 of the quarter. That's got to be worth something, right? Repect. /s

 

[CYBRTRK420]

Tesla is up +3.5% = 3,78 EUR at 109.26 EUR / 116.50 USD

 

[ThisStockGood]

Bloody TSLA investors after a 3 % bump in pre market

 

[CYBRTRK420]

Bloody TSLA investors after a 3 % bump in pre market

View attachment 889920

Every sign of green is a good one DD

 

[Artful Dodger]

What is that little UFO that squirts out of Dan's furrow in his brow at 0:27 sec? LOL!

MIB2. Obs.

 

[jamaatta]

Every sign of green is a good one DD

At the.moment:

Tesla
FRA: TL0

109,74 EUR +4,92 (4,69 %)

 

[Artful Dodger]

We see Tesla as a technology conglomerate, says Oppenheimer's Colin Rusch | CNBC Television

 

[OrthoSurg]

Yesterday premarket low at $106 was officially the bottom. Look at that buying pre market and the shirt covering that’s coming. God this rally will be savage

 

[heltok]

Tesla is up +3.5% = 3,78 EUR at 109.26 EUR / 116.50 USD

Up +5.4% @ $118.8

 

[verystandard]

My heart rate will back to normal when market close this friday as I'm sure I have 2 days of comfort without bleeding again.

(Also hope Good Tesla Q4 Production and Delivery Report on monday). In the meantime:

 

[2daMoon]

That is what he says not me. Just tired of seeing his name all the time.

Pretty common amongst journalists and the like, I have no position so I am not biased yadda yadda.

Like I said if you really don’t like him then don’t talk about him.

There is a question of motivation in my mind. If someone isn't an investor in a stock, what is the motivation to put so much time into reporting on it? Granted, the YT channel likely makes a tidy sum, but still, I think it was Harry Browne who said, "I don't trust crowds, and other non profit organizations" and it would seem challenging to remain unbiased without some consideration about how what is written affects the income stream.

The mainstream news has demonstrated how this works over time, while the slide away from unbiased journalism has been influenced by the subtle aspect of cash flow, it almost seems a force of nature. More specifically, of human nature. This should not be left out of the equation when considering any source of information.