Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Ogre]

Recall that cell phones leapfrogged landline phones is some less developed countries (and that many of these countries do not have the per capita installed base of ICE vehicles).

There are reasons to believe EV’s will be similarly advantaged in less developed countries (LDC’s):

EBikes, electric scooters, e rickshaws and similar vehicles will likely dominate first. They are already huge in some places. They are far more affordable and share many of the other characteristics you mentioned.

Robotaxi will likely come to those places before ICE and individual EV ownership becomes big.

 

[wipster]

Ya

<snip>

It's almost as if they are all working together to take the shine off Tesla's impressive production and sales growth by saying it's going to underperform, and then defining quarterly underperformance as smashing all the old records by an impressive margin.

Ya think?

 

[Ogre]

Let’s lay off of Troy.

Not his fault people labeled him the oracle so that they can game his predictions.

If you really don’t like him, don’t talk about him.

I am happy for him on his hustle. TMC member gone out and made good.

There does seem to be a lot of Troy bashing lately.

He’s never impressed me much, but I showed up late so maybe some of his earlier stuff was impressive.

I think people are just looking for people to blame. Lots of scapegoatism. We’ve (collectively) lost a lot of money and there is definitely a big urge to lash out at someone.

 

[thesmokingman]

How can the same group of analysts that have said they see signs of China demand being soft, and US demand being pushed into next year with inventory building up, you know, a demand problem for Q4, project a quarter that smashes both year-ago-quarter results as well as quarter-over-quarter results with dramatic percentage number increases? Particularly perplexing considering that last quarter smashed all existing results.

It's almost as if they are all working together to take the shine off Tesla's impressive production and sales growth by saying it's going to underperform, and then defining quarterly underperformance as smashing all the old records by an impressive margin.

Intellectual dishonesty is rampant.

 

[Ogre]

I read this as "I am done selling..." anyone else?

When he said “I’m not going to sell for at least the next 12 months” on a call with a dozen large investors; I read that as meaning “I’m done selling”.

I’ve learned to not read anything into what Musk says other than the actual… literal thing he says. The way he thinks, his humor, etc is too far off from way I think I can’t reliably interpret his clever humor. I suspect the “Code” people think he speaks in is often just reading tea leaves and concluding what they want. I’ve been burned by this before so anymore unless he says something outright, I just blow it off.

 

[SunCatcher]

I hope you're right and I'm wrong, but that didn't look like any kind of capitulation that I've ever seen.

I hope you're wrong too! Cory, from The Stocks Channel seems to strongly believe we are seeing capitulation. Of course we'll only know after we've seen it in the rear view mirror, but I've rarely seen him this bullish.

 

[Prunesquallor]

Let’s lay off of Troy.

Not his fault people labeled him the oracle so that they can game his predictions.

If you really don’t like him, don’t talk about him.

I am happy for him on his hustle. TMC member gone out and made good.

I don't like:
1) His patreon, as it can provide (at least) the appearance of a path of monetary influence.
2) His anonymity and lack of disclosure of TSLA position (long, short, none, etc.).

If he wants to play big-time analyst, he needs to play by the rules

 

[TrendTrader007]

so in terms of capitulation, it is a process not a single day after -70%+ stock drop
it can be a single day but more often it takes several days and weeks of testing out the bottom- sometimes double or triple bottom
it can be a V shaped recovery after a violent short time frame sell off
we will find out soon enough
here is the underlying psychology:
after a protracted sell off lasting 14 months or so, sentiment is so shaken up that it will take time to repair
that does not mean that there is no room for 50 to 90% or even 250% rallies lasting weeks to couple months
infact, we may very well be on verge of one as we speak
initial rallies will be sold off
it is only after several of these tests of lows, we will successfully break into new all time highs
my best guess will be 12 months or so to exceed $400 but that is just a wild guess

 

[navguy12]

When he said “I’m not going to sell for at least the next 12 months” on a call with a dozen large investors; I read that as meaning “I’m done selling”.

I’ve learned to not read anything into what Musk says other than the actual… literal thing he says. The way he thinks, his humor, etc is too far off from way I think I can’t reliably interpret his clever humor. I suspect the “Code” people think he speaks in is often just reading tea leaves and concluding what they want. I’ve been burned by this before so anymore unless he says something outright, I just blow it off.

You captured my thoughts exactly when it comes to folks thinking some redone Model 3 (or new Model 2) is about to be announced in Jan 2023.

IMO any “redone” Model 3 will look exactly like the current iteration; it will be things that the average consumer doesn’t see (battery tech/castings tech).

Of course, I could be dead wrong and end up with some unexpected results:

 

[Cheburashka]

Well I got banned for saying the only people making bank these days are those buying puts haha. But it looks like someone unbanned me, thanks mods.

In order to make it up, I bought a 116 call with Friday expiry. At these prices it's worth the gamble IMO especially if Musk can get his stuff together and come out with a positive spin for Tesla. So hopefully I'll have 100 more shares soon after I get assignment.

 

[Stretch2727]

I don't like:
1) His patreon, as it can provide (at least) the appearance of a path of monetary influence.
2) His anonymity and lack of disclosure of TSLA position (long, short, none, etc.).

If he wants to play big-time analyst, he needs to play by the rules

He is pretty clear he does not own Tesla. I really don't understand why so many people beat up on him. He's another data point.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1584884266558971905

 

[Ogre]

I don't like:
1) His patreon, as it can provide (at least) the appearance of a path of monetary influence.
2) His anonymity and lack of disclosure of TSLA position (long, short, none, etc.).

If he wants to play big-time analyst, he needs to play by the rules

I don’t care about either of that.

If he delivered consistent, good predictions, I wouldn’t care a bit. That doesn’t seem to be the case anymore. I trust the numbers from some on this board as much.

 

[Artful Dodger]

So when will we find out which funds have bought TSLA in Q4? Could be a bull flag regardless of the names.

D+45 is the deadline for Fund filings, so mid-Februrary. Outdated, always. Usesless, by design. Waaal Streak.

 

[Moon Buggy]

I trust Troy over most of the people on this board. As mentioned, he does not have a TSLA position, and I think he does his best to be as objective and as accurate as possible. What good would bias do him? He can't manipulate the actual P&D numbers and the more wrong he is, the more people are going to snipe at him. He gets an indisputable scorecard every 3 months.

The people on this board are undoubtedly biased. This is the Tesla investor thread. Reasonable doubts raised on this board are often shouted down without much consideration. If Troy raises alarms, we would be wise to listen. If his estimates are off, then he will lose credibility. One of his worst quarters was last quarter where he overestimated by quite a bit. But he has good information. I don't get the vitriol.

 

[spacerfc]

Elon posted weird meme about not being brainwashed, and TSLA jumped 3%, clearly the lesson is Elon needs to post more weird memes...

 

[Artful Dodger]

Dan Ives worried about demand the last time in 2019

Ha! Dan isn't even as accurate as a borken clock: Here's his prediction for 2022, posted exactly 1 year ago today on Dec 28, 2021:

Why 2022 could be a golden year for Tesla: Wedbush's Dan Ives | CNBC on Youtube

 

[adiggs]

Regardless of whether the growth is "reckless" or "relentless", I'm still not following how your list of 5 levers that could be used to "juice demand" would help sales growth at all. The original question stands, where would Tesla get the additional units to sell?

None of them will help with unit growth.

My point was that all the "demand" problems that we've been hearing in the news, the context is implied that its like the rest of the car industry. It's not. Or in terms of unit growth, the implication in the various articles / media is that with demand problems, Tesla will need to rein back on production expansion or even idle existing capacity.

Tesla's version of "demand" problems, assuming that there actually is such a problem, is that with all those levers to pull, Tesla can keep the unit growth growing 50%+ year over year. It'll just be that instead of a year worth of backlog, Tesla might actually have a more rational and reasonable backlog of 1-3 months.

 

[bigsmooth125]

The people on this board are undoubtedly biased.

Ya don't say!

 

[bigsmooth125]

This is the Tesla investor cheerleaders' thread.

FTFY

 

[traxila]

I don't like:
1) His patreon, as it can provide (at least) the appearance of a path of monetary influence.
2) His anonymity and lack of disclosure of TSLA position (long, short, none, etc.).

If he wants to play big-time analyst, he needs to play by the rules

He is on record that he has no position so he is not biased.