Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Ogre]

Bulleproof glass, a very large amount of a specialized stainless steel, a supremely complex suspension system - these are a few differentiating factors that are costly. As you mentioned production costs rather than capital costs - even amortized to a per-vehicle basis - I'll grant you that we can exclude the immense price of IDRA's casting machine, but the cast frame, even if it pencils out to the same cost as a traditional vehicle's multi-part steel allow frame, still represents a chunk of cost.
So....."not much more" doesn't pass the reality test in my opinion.

So you are suggesting when Tesla launched this… they had no clue what these things would cost and just plugged a number in to be revised later?

Doesn’t pass the WTF test in my opinion.

Tesla had a path to implementing this in the prices they laid out. For the dual motor, the only big/ potentially expensive change since launch was 4WS. Otherwise it makes zero sense for them to launch it the way they did.

 

[bkp_duke]

In for more Jan 2025 LEAPS

 

[EVMeister]

Tesla adds extra discount for Model S and Model X for just 2 days

Tesla is offering a new discount for Model S and Model X for just 2 days. Previously, it was only for Model 3 and Model Y.

electrek.co

looks like model S and X get the $7500 discount for a couple days. I don't see it reflected on the website currently though.

What was Fred's source for this I wonder, as he doesn't say. Perhaps "sources familiar with the matter but not the website"?

 

[InTheMiddle]

So you are suggesting when Tesla launched this… they had no clue what these things would cost and just plugged a number in to be revised later?

Doesn’t pass the WTF test in my opinion.

Tesla had a path to implementing this in the prices they laid out. For the dual motor, the only big/ potentially expensive change since launch was 4WS. Otherwise it makes zero sense for them to launch it the way they did.

I agree with AudubonB that the Cybertruck production costs are likely far higher, but that doesn't imply that Tesla had no clue or that they were plugging in a number. Rather, I believe Tesla believed they had a reasonable chance at profitable production at the prices they originally presented, based on assumptions about technology, manufacturing, macroeconomics, anticipated breakthroughs, etc. It's even possible (likely?) that Tesla did a probability-weighted cost analysis to generate potential prices and was quite comfortable with the planned Cybertruck retail prices announced at launch at the time. It's been a little over 3 years since the reveal in November 2019 ... and quite the 3 years indeed. It makes perfect sense to me that they would unveil it when they did at the prices they did, and it also makes perfect sense to me that 3 years later, with different data available, things are different. Credit Tesla with the ability to adapt their plans as the world around them changes.

 

[thx1139]

Im still kinda confused. He said "1 million people in FSD Beta". Which seems to indicate that by tomorrow, there would be 1 million Tesla's actually on the roads with FSD Beta fully enabled.

But its only 285K right now with FSD Beta on the roads? Or again, am I misreading?

From the wording I saw it indicated to me that the 285K indicated the amount of people that had bought FSD AND asked to have the Beta installed. So the total amount of vehicles that have bought FSD could be considerably higher, they simply havent asked for FSD Beta to be installed yet.

 

[ggr]

From the wording I saw it indicated to me that the 285K indicated the amount of people that had bought FSD AND asked to have the Beta installed. So the total amount of vehicles that have bought FSD could be considerably higher, they simply havent asked for FSD Beta to be installed yet.

Yes, we bought FSD for our P3, but my wife mostly drives it and doesn't want to use even cruise control. It has never been downloaded.

 

[Max Plaid]

The yoke is quite nice. At low speed it takes some getting used to, but I've been practicing before by not using the top half of the steering wheel.

Here's a picture of my MXP and an overview of one half of the delivery center.

View attachment 890451View attachment 890453

If you have 22" rims then we got identical specs... I took it out to the organic supermarket today, didn't really need to go, just wanted to drive it... the seats are so comfortable it's untrue... I didn't yet unleash a 0-100 as it's been raining non-stop since I got it, but the rolling acceleration is better than my previous XP100DL+, and that was already faster than any other non-Tesla out there. That being said, the car is stable as hell in the wet and handles beautifully. The yoke makes driving very relaxed and mostly one-handed

Sorry, this is all a bit OT, but MS/X deliveries in Europe is a pretty big deal right now

 

[Max Plaid]

What was Fred's source for this I wonder, as he doesn't say. Perhaps "sources familiar with the matter but not the website"?

Even less than "sources familiar"...

Now Tesla is also bringing the $7,500 discount to Model S and Model X vehicles for new orders that can be delivered today or tomorrow, according to a source familiar with the matter.

 

[Max Plaid]

Yes, we bought FSD for our P3, but my wife mostly drives it and doesn't want to use even cruise control. It has never been downloaded.

Wives, eh? Mine doesn't even know how to engage cruise, never mind FSD, and drives her P3D in Chill Mode... really... I know...

 

[Ogre]

I agree with AudubonB that the Cybertruck production costs are likely far higher, but that doesn't imply that Tesla had no clue or that they were plugging in a number. Rather, I believe Tesla believed they had a reasonable chance at profitable production at the prices they originally presented, based on assumptions about technology, manufacturing, macroeconomics, anticipated breakthroughs, etc. It's even possible (likely?) that Tesla did a probability-weighted cost analysis to generate potential prices and was quite comfortable with the planned Cybertruck retail prices announced at launch at the time. It's been a little over 3 years since the reveal in November 2019 ... and quite the 3 years indeed. It makes perfect sense to me that they would unveil it when they did at the prices they did, and it also makes perfect sense to me that 3 years later, with different data available, things are different. Credit Tesla with the ability to adapt their plans as the world around them changes.

I don’t think anyone here is suggesting prices won’t adjust to actual inflation. But you are commingling ideas here. AudubonB was not talking about inflation, he was talking about the complexity of **launch features** causing a big increase in prices, that is in fact suggesting they completely dropped the ball on pricing at launch.

Actual inflation between launch and now is 15-25%. Not 50-60%

 

[NicoV]

Wives, eh? Mine doesn't even know how to engage cruise, never mind FSD, and drives her P3D in Chill Mode... really... I know...

Where is the ‘too much information’ button when you need it?

 

[hobbes]

Didn´t hear about that yet, CATL cell factory in Germany just started production according to WuWa:

According to a statement from CATL on Wednesday, Contemporary Amperex Technology Thuringia GmbH (CATT), a plant in the central German city of Erfurt, is on track to start mass production of lithium-ion batteries in December. As CATL's first plant in Europe and the first outside of China, CATT received permission from the local government in April to become the first company to produce batteries in Germany, and CATL plans to achieve an initial annual production capacity of 8 GWh and create 1,500 jobs when CATT's battery production begins. With a total investment of EUR 1.8 billion, CATL plans to increase its production capacity to 14 GWh, creating up to 2,000 jobs in the future. As 2022 draws to a close, we hope to see CATL's Shanghai plant hauled into production early tomorrow to provide high-performance batteries for Tesla.

 

[InTheMiddle]

I don’t think anyone here is suggesting prices won’t adjust to actual inflation. But you are commingling ideas here. AudubonB was not talking about inflation, he was talking about the complexity of **launch features** causing a big increase in prices, that is in fact suggesting they completely dropped the ball on pricing at launch.

Actual inflation between launch and now is 15-25%. Not 50-60%

Agreed that inflation, complexity of launch features, difficulty in manufacturing, etc are all separate ideas. I anticipate that multiple, independent factors such as these have likely *all* trended in the direction of "more expensive" over the past 3 years, and hence I think the retail price of the Cybertruck will be very significantly higher than the launch prices. Again, very parallel to the $35k Model 3. If I am correct (and of course that may or may not be the case) and the production cost of the Cybertruck is higher than anticipated for these (and/or other reasons), I am fully confident that Tesla will sell different trims at much higher prices to keep it nicely profitable (potentially excluding a few who refuse to move to the higher trim and instead are willing to wait additional years for Tesla to honor their purchase at the reserved spec/price).

 

[InTheMiddle]

In for more Jan 2025 LEAPS

Accepting that your post was *not* investment advice, I nonetheless found myself picking up 100 Jan 19 2024 C60s after reading it. Misread your post on the year, though...hopefully that extra 12 months isn't needed.

 

[bkp_duke]

Accepting that your post was *not* investment advice, I nonetheless found myself picking up 100 Jan 19 2024 C60s after reading it. Misread your post on the year, though...hopefully that extra 12 months isn't needed.

Never advice.

I bought Jan 2025. And at a substantially higher strike.

I can't imagine 2 years from now after WS sees what Tesla Energy is doing literally printing money, on top of all the IRA funds indirectly being funneled to TSLA, that we are not miles higher in share price than we are now.


As many said here in this thread, a generational investment opportunity. But NOT advice.

 

[Ogre]

Agreed that inflation, complexity of launch features, difficulty in manufacturing, etc are all separate ideas. I anticipate that multiple, independent factors such as these have likely *all* trended in the direction of "more expensive" over the past 3 years, and hence I think the retail price of the Cybertruck will be very significantly higher than the launch prices. Again, very parallel to the $35k Model 3. If I am correct (and of course that may or may not be the case) and the production cost of the Cybertruck is higher than anticipated for these (and/or other reasons), I am fully confident that Tesla will sell different trims at much higher prices to keep it nicely profitable (potentially excluding a few who refuse to move to the higher trim and instead are willing to wait additional years for Tesla to honor their purchase at the reserved spec/price).

The $35k Model 3 was sold for 18 months. Granted that was 2 years after launch, but it did sell for quite some time. Even ignoring that, the actual launch Model 3 was not 50-60% higher than that.

And it’s not like all unexpected production costs are up. The Advanced Materials Production clause is very likely going to reduce cell costs by $45/ kWh. That “complexity“ was not expected either and by itself should drop their costs by $5,000 - $9,000. That is an absolutely massive unexpected reduction in costs.

 

[MABMAB]

Bulleproof glass, a very large amount of a specialized stainless steel, a supremely complex suspension system - these are a few differentiating factors that are costly. As you mentioned production costs rather than capital costs - even amortized to a per-vehicle basis - I'll grant you that we can exclude the immense price of IDRA's casting machine, but the cast frame, even if it pencils out to the same cost as a traditional vehicle's multi-part steel allow frame, still represents a chunk of cost.
So....."not much more" doesn't pass the reality test in my opinion.

You don’t think like Elon.
it comes down to the cost of raw material inputs.

Tesla specializes in doing things others say can’t be done.

 

[CanadaEV]

Very predictable this day would close on the upswing…
All the liars running for the hills.

Happy New Year to all TSLA longs, I’m thinking it will be

 

[thx1139]

Yes, we bought FSD for our P3, but my wife mostly drives it and doesn't want to use even cruise control. It has never been downloaded.

Can be enabled and disabled per driver profile. I use FSD and EAP, my wife just uses regular AP.

 

[MABMAB]

Bulletproof glass - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

none of that sounds all that sophisticated.

perhaps such glass on transport will be as commonplace as the screen protector on my iPad. Everyone uses them and the screens don’t break. $20 item on $1000 item is neglible