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Just created this list of likely achievements / events by Tesla in 2023.
Did I miss anything?
View attachment 890705
I don't think the capacity sums involved have to be too fancy, since Lathrop would be at near 100% utilisation at some point during 2024 (i.e. this is annual numbers, if operating at 100% capacity utilisation the ramp would exceed 40GWh/yr in mid-year).Zero sum game is cranking out a lot of super-bullish stuff about Megapacks. I’m not sure how reliable he is, and we won’t really know until earnings come out how good his estimates on gross margins are.
That said. He says there is another even large megapack factory breaking ground soon. It makes sense and the timing is perfect with Lathrop firing on all cylinders. Didn’t Musk say that Tesla Energy was going to overtake auto? Seems like it may be coming fast.
First one is already done. Several new x/s have been delivered to end customers in Norway this December!Nice list. You could add:
- Reintroducing S/X to markets outside of the US.
- Entering new markets (e.g. Thailand, Turkey)
Just created this list of likely achievements / events by Tesla in 2023.
Did I miss anything?
View attachment 890705
It's my understanding that V11 was rolled out to FSD Beta testers a few days ago with the holiday update, see this teslarati article: Tesla FSD Beta V11 release gets the “next week” treatment from MuskIs there a holiday update coming? I’m used to getting a little treat from Tesla this time of year.
Also; is V11 still a possibility for this year, I thought we were still on ‘maybe’ for that.
I don’t pay too much attention to the FSD updates since I’ve chosen to buy TSLA instead of FSD on our vehicles (assuming once it works I’ll be rich and then I can buy it, also autopilot is SO good).
To meet the 50% growth rate numbers…?
@Artful Dodger and I did the logistics sums yesterday
We have a self serving government, the whole free enterprise ideal has been corrupted,Well, no. What I hoped to impart is that if I can't do anything about it, I don't think this will slow Tesla down much.
It seems kinda silly to go through life expecting the agents of government to not serve their special interests. I have no spare time to whine about human nature. Just deal the cards and I'll see if the hand is playable. This one is.
With that in mind I believe that if it ends up this way, it will not be a burden on Tesla. ( I agree with Elon )
However, it will be a burden on the other OEMs as they won't be able to make enough vehicles at scale to actually reap the needed reward needed to keep them solvent.
You didn't really think I believe that crap is okay, do you? That wasn't what I was writing about. Sorry that your irony filter was maladjusted when you read it.
We have a self serving government, the whole free enterprise ideal has been corrupted,
actually helping Tesla undermines the unions, so don’t expect much. I see why
Elon has changed.
I think Munro guessed this from his teardown, as he found brackets with no use that could be consistent with being there for a future pressure tank.
But if Elon denies I would go with that, technically making provisions for air does not make it so - probably for other reasons than ‘not possible’.
INBOUND LOGISTICSFolks should be aware the above is an estimate for the shipping tonnage just of the LFP cells themselves. Packaging / crating / palleting is additional necessary weight, as is the weight of the "sea can" shipping container. So maybe add +50% on the tonnage as an upper bound for bty cells shipped from China?
Then, shipping finished product will be extraordinarily streamlined, since Megapack is built inside a 40' shipping container! It is literally designed to be shipped the moment it's built: Out the factory door and onto a truck/trailer, haul to the dock, boom it onto a container ship or river barge, the logistics are BUILT to move these suckers EN MASSE!
Master Plan Part 3 is all about the TONNAGE!
Though to be clear, so are many others. I am so glad to see this but from an investor POV be careful. For a couple- five years though it looks wide open.Folks should be aware the above is an estimate for the shipping tonnage just of the LFP cells themselves. Packaging / crating / palleting is additional necessary weight, as is the weight of the "sea can" shipping container. So maybe add +50% on the tonnage as an upper bound for bty cells shipped from China?
Then, shipping finished product will be extraordinarily streamlined, since Megapack is built inside a 40' shipping container! It is literally designed to be shipped the moment it's built: Out the factory door and onto a truck/trailer, haul to the dock, boom it onto a container ship or river barge, the logistics are BUILT to move these suckers EN MASSE!
Master Plan Part 3 is all about the TONNAGE!
What’s your math that says 400k is such a high bar?To break 400k.
It looks like they are really pulling out all the stops to get deliveries from Fremont.
"NEWS: New drone video from Tesla's Fremont factory tonight shows that for the first time ever Tesla has converted their south employee parking lot to accommodate hundreds of new Teslas for local delivery for an end of the quarter push."
Well, no. What I hoped to impart is that if I can't do anything about it, I don't think this will slow Tesla down much.
It seems kinda silly to go through life expecting the agents of government to not serve their special interests. I have no spare time to whine about human nature. Just deal the cards and I'll see if the hand is playable. This one is.
With that in mind I believe that if it ends up this way, it will not be a burden on Tesla. ( I agree with Elon )
However, it will be a burden on the other OEMs as they won't be able to make enough vehicles at scale to actually reap the needed reward needed to keep them solvent.
You didn't really think I believe that crap is okay, do you? That wasn't what I was writing about. Sorry that your irony filter was maladjusted when you read it.