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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
Good Morning.... My news years resolutions.
1. Whenever I see a "competition is coming post/article" do as the cat does and buy a share.
2. Whenever I see a "Demand problem post/article" do as the cat does and buy a share.
3. Be nicer to people.
4. Give more freely of my time.
5. Spend less time on TMC...(
ok, that will be tough)
Have a great new year ya'all.
1. Whenever I see a "competition is coming post/article" do as the cat does and buy a share.
2. Whenever I see a "Demand problem post/article" do as the cat does and buy a share.
3. Be nicer to people.
4. Give more freely of my time.
5. Spend less time on TMC...(
ok, that will be tough)Have a great new year ya'all.
The Accountant
Active Member
Nice list. You could add:
- Reintroducing S/X to markets outside of the US.
- Entering new markets (e.g. Thailand, Turkey)
petit_bateau
Active Member
I don't think the capacity sums involved have to be too fancy, since Lathrop would be at near 100% utilisation at some point during 2024 (i.e. this is annual numbers, if operating at 100% capacity utilisation the ramp would exceed 40GWh/yr in mid-year).
and I'm sure @Artful Dodger and I did the logistics sums yesterday
Regarding announcement timescales note that Lathrop was announced in Sep-2021 (but preps began in April-2021), opened in Oct-22, and will be at the planned 40GWh/yr capacity by (say) Sep-2024.
On that basis it would now be sensible for Tesla to announce 200 GWh/yr of storage factory(s) in 2023, for opening in 2024, and at capacity in late 2026 / early 2027. If they are good and properly ambitious they would select at least three sites, one each in North America, Asia, and Europe, and build each site out in phases of (say) 40-50 GWh/yr each, with at least two phases planned per site (i.e. 3 x 50 x 2 = 600 GWh/yr) which would give sufficient runway in each of the main three economic blocs for localised production through until late 2028 / early 2029. That is the level of ambition required to get back on track in the storage game where Tesla is currently falling behind in all segments (domestic and utility).
It seems to require about 1,000 employees for 40 GWh/yr or so, which means a storage factory can be much more relaxed about its siting than a car factory - any reasonable-sized light industrial region will have plentiful sites with the necessary air, road, rail, barge, and port accesses and sufficient workforce.
Margins on the other hand .......
First one is already done. Several new x/s have been delivered to end customers in Norway this December!
313 X registered
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JusRelax
Active Member
Some possible, but slightly less likely achievements:
- Hardware V4 FSD computer announced/released with the Cybertruck
- First V4 Supercharger installation
- Over 20 Optimii working on Tesla factory lines
- Dojo fully operational, decreasing number of days per iteration for FSD builds from ~2 weeks to ~3 days
- Tesla Energy as a utility expands from Texas to two more states
It's my understanding that V11 was rolled out to FSD Beta testers a few days ago with the holiday update, see this teslarati article: Tesla FSD Beta V11 release gets the “next week” treatment from Musk
I have FSD Beta and got the holiday update (light show, Apple carplay, among other things, etc) a week or two ago. I didn't notice a major step-change improvement in FSD Beta though...a bit smoother and less jerky in complex situations, more mild starts from stops, and doesn't race up to a stop light then suddenly decelerate like it used to. It's incrementally better.
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
@Artful Dodger and I did the logistics sums yesterday
Folks should be aware the above is an estimate for the shipping tonnage just of the LFP cells themselves. Packaging / crating / palleting is additional necessary weight, as is the weight of the "sea can" shipping container. So maybe add +50% on the tonnage as an upper bound for bty cells shipped from China?
Then, shipping finished product will be extraordinarily streamlined, since Megapack is built inside a 40' shipping container! It is literally designed to be shipped the moment it's built: Out the factory door and onto a truck/trailer, haul to the dock, boom it onto a container ship or river barge, the logistics are BUILT to move these suckers EN MASSE!
Master Plan Part 3 is all about the TONNAGE!
We have a self serving government, the whole free enterprise ideal has been corrupted,
actually helping Tesla undermines the unions, so don’t expect much. I see why
Elon has changed.
2daMoon
Mostly Harmless
It isn't like the founders of the nation didn't expect or warn about this. As mentioned, it is human nature and that lizard-brain survival mechanism will nearly always result in these consequences.
Elon has clearly stated that Tesla doesn't need incentives, and that he doesn't support the government providing them. I agree.
From there we can look closer and figure out that the weasels writing the IRA fine print will be focusing on making it help those who regularly grease their wheels. This doesn't matter to Tesla, as they are so profitable. It could matter more to the other OEMs, but only if they had the vision to get with the program years ago. Instead, they do not have the production capabilities to take advantage of the largess being offered. By the time they do, they will have been left in the dust struggling to remain relevant.
Free enterprise will prevail. It still works, even when government is trying to jack with it. Those companies with more noble goals which target something other than making the board members and stockholders rich will prosper faster than those whose only goal is personal profit regardless of the cost to their own enterprise. Tesla is the poster-child for this sort of company with a goal that benefits everyone they touch.
The legacy OEMs have had decades of government and social incentive repeatedly making attempts to change their course. The momentum that is behind them to preserve their status quo was set up for disruption simply because they only ever moved forward when they were forced to, rather than as part of a long-term plan. Tesla has a plan and demonstrates daily just how uselessly the legacy OEMs have performed, and will continue to perform going forward.
The subsidies might offer some incentive, but it is mostly window-dressing. It could even have a negative effect on the economy as a whole over time by subtly increasing the rate of monetary inflation to a point higher than can be easily managed. Any time a plan like this is implemented without consideration of the long-term effects on the economy it sets the stage for more problems down the line.
However, as long as the plan is to provide these incentives for folks to buy electric, to increase domestic battery production, and to generally accelerate the transition to sustainable energy, it will benefit Tesla more than it will any of the legacy OEMs simply because they are already prepared to work toward achieving this goal.
The legacy automakers are only providing lip-service to the goal and seem to be primarily focused on sustaining their faltering ICE product profits, because they have only read the Cliff Notes rather than the actual writing on the wall. The perspective of their management is too warped over decades of misplaced momentum to easily deal with making the transition to all electric products.
As for the unions, they have undermined themselves. Tesla had nothing to do with it, other than providing their employees a reasonable wage with good benefits and stock options where the cost of union participation would net them less than they already have.
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TrendTrader007
Active Member
Why Isn't Everyone Successful - Earl Nightingale
it is your own attitude toward TSLA just like your attitude toward anything else in life that determines eventual outcome
positive expectations lead to positive outcome and vice versa
very little to do with what TSLA as a stock does or Tesla as a company does
everything to do with your own mental state
biggest losses come from negative attitude
biggest wins come from positive attitude
everything else is conversation
Happy New Year!
it is your own attitude toward TSLA just like your attitude toward anything else in life that determines eventual outcome
positive expectations lead to positive outcome and vice versa
very little to do with what TSLA as a stock does or Tesla as a company does
everything to do with your own mental state
biggest losses come from negative attitude
biggest wins come from positive attitude
everything else is conversation
Happy New Year!
StealthP3D
Well-Known Member
Except that Elon didn't deny the car was setup to easily add air suspension or that they would not decide to add it later. The report Elon denied in 2020 said Tesla is releasing air suspension. Elon replied that is false and they have no plans to add air suspension to the Models 3&Y.
This was obviously to prevent buyers from withholding purchases so they could get one with air suspension. It doesn't mean that in the future they won't decide to add it. I would be interested to know if recent production still has the unused brackets or if they deleted them, at least for the time being.
petit_bateau
Active Member
INBOUND LOGISTICSFolks should be aware the above is an estimate for the shipping tonnage just of the LFP cells themselves. Packaging / crating / palleting is additional necessary weight, as is the weight of the "sea can" shipping container. So maybe add +50% on the tonnage as an upper bound for bty cells shipped from China?
Then, shipping finished product will be extraordinarily streamlined, since Megapack is built inside a 40' shipping container! It is literally designed to be shipped the moment it's built: Out the factory door and onto a truck/trailer, haul to the dock, boom it onto a container ship or river barge, the logistics are BUILT to move these suckers EN MASSE!
Master Plan Part 3 is all about the TONNAGE!
That's why I allowed for shipping at 20t per 40' container, rather than the 26t normal cargo limit. Stuffing density of LFP is such that these will weight-out before they volume-out. The production volumes are such that the LFP packaging will be designed for high density stuffing. I'm guessing they'll go with 24 Europallets of 800x1200mm. In fact, as the calculation below shows the product's state almost dictates this.
(Metric t = tonnes, 1000kg)
Interestingly the finished product is almost the same density.
OUTBOUND LOGISTICS
So my estimate is that for each 40' container of LFP cells in to the factory, they will put out one completed Megapack. So a 40GWh/yr factory taking one trainload of LFP in per month (830 containers/month) will probably spit out one trainloads of completed utility-scale packs per month. Let's hope they build these factories next to waterways and railtracks.
Attachments
Though to be clear, so are many others. I am so glad to see this but from an investor POV be careful. For a couple- five years though it looks wide open.Folks should be aware the above is an estimate for the shipping tonnage just of the LFP cells themselves. Packaging / crating / palleting is additional necessary weight, as is the weight of the "sea can" shipping container. So maybe add +50% on the tonnage as an upper bound for bty cells shipped from China?
Then, shipping finished product will be extraordinarily streamlined, since Megapack is built inside a 40' shipping container! It is literally designed to be shipped the moment it's built: Out the factory door and onto a truck/trailer, haul to the dock, boom it onto a container ship or river barge, the logistics are BUILT to move these suckers EN MASSE!
Master Plan Part 3 is all about the TONNAGE!
What’s your math that says 400k is such a high bar?
China is likely doing at least as many as Q3. That takes us to 343k.
400k from there is 57k.
Do you think 57k is a lot even with all the incentives?
Aren’t you seeing increased sales in your part of the world?
Btw, don’t we have a reasonable estimate on EU based on public data? Any idea how many thousands more were delivered in EU this quarter already?
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Unfortunately, it's pouring rain here. And it's well known that Californians spontaneously melt with any contact with rain.
So weird to see a knowledgeable bull abandon his thesis. Yes ASP will come down. Like he just decides to forget how Tesla executed BEFORE 2022 when they dropped prices continuously while margins expanded. ASP will come down but so will COGS in a recessions. Austin/Berlin being at 5000/week has major impacts on gross margin…margins might not be consistently over 30% but even if they’re like 27-28%, now Tesla is overvalued and can only be valued more if FSD works or they crank out 4680 in heavy volume?
It’s like he completely ignores the effects of the IRA and Megapack.
Really clear example of someone’s emotions putting them in the despair part of the investing cycle
Johann Koeber
Happy Owner
Finally picked up my MS Plaid ordered 2 years ago. Car was perfect.
They give us 48 hours to file any issues via the app. So it was fast in - fast out.
By 1 PM delivery center was almost empty. Last delivery for today was scheduled for 2 PM. Some cars had not made it to Regensburg on time. They will be delivered Beginning of Jan.
Lots of new cars: MY, some M3 and quite a few MS and even MX, which I haven't seen much of in Germany in the past year.
There were only showroom cars left.
No demand problems to be seen here in Germany.
They give us 48 hours to file any issues via the app. So it was fast in - fast out.
By 1 PM delivery center was almost empty. Last delivery for today was scheduled for 2 PM. Some cars had not made it to Regensburg on time. They will be delivered Beginning of Jan.
Lots of new cars: MY, some M3 and quite a few MS and even MX, which I haven't seen much of in Germany in the past year.
There were only showroom cars left.
No demand problems to be seen here in Germany.
StealthP3D
Well-Known Member
I agree with you that Tesla will be fine with the IRA's EV purchase tax credits, but it requires them to adjust production and sales in a non-optimal way. It might even help them next year in terms of financial performance but those who know me know I'm always looking five years down the road and I think Tesla would be better off without the EV purchase tax credits. I also think the transition to EV's would happen more quickly overall without the EV purchase tax credits. That may sound counter-intuitive but incentivizing manufacturers to tailor production to arbitrary price points and arbitrary specs will have the undesirable side effect of causing legacy manufacturers to also tailor ICE production to slot between the EV "sweet spots" which will help them move more ICE cars in certain segments even though they don't have subsidies.
I've long been of the belief that the fastest transition to EV's, at the lowest overall cost to consumers, happens with the laggards, the higher cost producers, going out of business, especially out of the business of making more ICE cars, and letting the most efficient car producers scale more quickly. Nothing would stimulate production of the raw materials required to make batteries more quickly than the shocking news that legendary ICE manufacturers were going out of business.
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