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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
ThisStockGood
Still cruising my Model S 70 2015
I wanna be optimistic… and believe that when Elon is stating “epic q4” he is referring to earnings and not delivery numbers…
But maybe I’m just a fool…
But maybe I’m just a fool…
I’m getting pretty weary of interesting days
... while politically giving the appearance of caring about the planet, and becoming energy independent to end the wars.Giving an 11.4% tax credit for a 50 MPGe "EV" that costs $65.5K does not advance the Mission. It slows it by supporting fossil fools.
This IRA is all about SLOWING the transition to renewable energy (by pretending hybrids are EVs), while extending the life of the mine-and-burn economy.
Yeah, but doesnt take into account that entering the quarter already had 35K in inventory. So now 70K.
Yes, including an additional count of between 50-100 vehicles would have made a huge difference - NOT.
And Megapacks are not vehicles. This report is strictly about vehicle production and delivery. Perhaps it would have been nice to have the Semi listed, but the quantity delivered is immaterial.
As time goes on, the report will become more and more immaterial. The only production and deployment that reflects Tesla's true business model is production of batteries and where they were used, be it storage or vehicles. Treating Tesla as strictly a vehicle manufacturer is quickly becoming more and more irrelevant.
willow_hiller
Well-Known Member
Thoughts on the Investor Day press release wording?
"Our investors will be able to see our most advanced production line as well as discuss long term expansion plans, generation 3 platform, capital allocation and other subjects with our leadership team."
I'm expecting at least one new Gigafactory announcement. "capital allocation" could be referring to the buyback. Unsure what the generation 3 platform is referring to. Could be Cybertruck, Robotaxi, or Highland, I suppose.
"Our investors will be able to see our most advanced production line as well as discuss long term expansion plans, generation 3 platform, capital allocation and other subjects with our leadership team."
I'm expecting at least one new Gigafactory announcement. "capital allocation" could be referring to the buyback. Unsure what the generation 3 platform is referring to. Could be Cybertruck, Robotaxi, or Highland, I suppose.
TrendTrader007
Active Member
so much pessimism- great from contrarian standpoint
selling TSLA at -70% or shorting it here, probability of it ending well is rather low in my opinion
it is not uncommon after a severe selloff like TSLA had over last 14 months, to test lows 2 to 3 times
i am looking at stock to bottom within a matter of days to weeks, if not much sooner
we will see, but i am not half as pessimistic as many on this board
selling TSLA at -70% or shorting it here, probability of it ending well is rather low in my opinion
it is not uncommon after a severe selloff like TSLA had over last 14 months, to test lows 2 to 3 times
i am looking at stock to bottom within a matter of days to weeks, if not much sooner
we will see, but i am not half as pessimistic as many on this board
Are you criticizing everyone else in this forum who listens to and quotes Elon's tweets, too? If so, go ahead.
EVNow
Well-Known Member
Well, epic in the sense of highest quarterly deliveries and first time > 400k ?
"priced in". Good one trax! Glad to see you still have a sense of humor!
LOL, OK maybe the SP gets trashed tomorrow.But there is a company specific reason the market trashed the stock 60% over six weeks, and it is not beyond the pale that includes missing 'expectations'.
What are we looking at anyway? Will TSLA test 100 tomorrow because of this record quarter? More likely will retest the last week lows. Plenty of buyers thought TSLA was a great buy there, and I would guess they would still. Plus there were a couple of EOY of sellers which seemed to be done last week.
My main point is there was no guarantee that TSLA would have popped hard with a 430K delivery number which many people were predicting, and there is no guarantee that TSLA will collapse off of a 405K delivery number. TSLA will still have record profits and a forward PE of 20 with no growth at this level. Now if they were really at zero growth, the PE would collapse even more, but I think we could pencil 10% growth going forward to support the 20 PE .
If the delivery number had come in below 370K, now this would signal a real problem. That was my disaster boundary. But even that would not matter in two years!
We will find out. Don't let the pre-market terrify anyone. It is much easier to mess with the numbers there. Let's see where we are at 1pm or so. I am optimistic we will not be close to visiting 2 digits.
They might as well have Elon go to Wall St and stand in the rain holding a boom box over his head
My personal financial decisions regarding Tesla came about when the CEO wasnt coming across daily as a liar. Like many have said he isnt being a good captain of the Tesla ship. He and Tesla board knew the macro environment and yet instead of simply taking Twitter and running it he had to come out and be a master sugar poster and liar.
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
Won't matter in New York on Monday. If you ask a bear what's the fair price, they always say "LESS THAN THAT!"
Meanwhile, Frankfurt found a support level: (~122.17 USD at 18:47 CET)
So it is what it is.
Unfortunately we’ve got a lot of time before those earnings get released. I do think that margins will show improvement but until that report comes out, it may be a tough road. Buckle up.
TrendTrader007
Active Member
100% agree. very well stated
But there is a company specific reason the market trashed the stock 60% over six weeks, and it is not beyond the pale that includes missing 'expectations'.
What are we looking at anyway? Will TSLA test 100 tomorrow because of this record quarter? More likely will retest the last week lows. Plenty of buyers thought TSLA was a great buy there, and I would guess they would still. Plus there were a couple of EOY of sellers which seemed to be done last week.
My main point is there was no guarantee that TSLA would have popped hard with a 430K delivery number which many people were predicting, and there is no guarantee that TSLA will collapse off of a 405K delivery number. TSLA will still have record profits and a forward PE of 20 with no growth at this level. Now if they were really at zero growth, the PE would collapse even more, but I think we could pencil 10% growth going forward to support the 20 PE .
If the delivery number had come in below 370K, now this would signal a real problem. That was my disaster boundary. But even that would not matter in two years!
We will find out. Don't let the pre-market terrify anyone. It is much easier to mess with the numbers there. Let's see where we are at 1pm or so. I am optimistic we will not be close to visiting 2 digits.
From 499,550 in 2020 to 1,313,851 in 2022 is absolutely incredible.
So, if automotive is ~$92B in annualized revenue run-rate...then Tesla would need to have sold $2B in Semi and Energy in Q4/2022 to establish a $100B annualized total company revenue run-rate.
1st time in their history if true!
1st time in their history if true!
And is that a problem? At least for Norway there has only been deliveries for the 5-6 last weeks on each quarter.
With them now wanting to have a smoother delivery schedule the number of cars in transit/inventory has to increase. Today it’s only about 10% of the quarters production.
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