Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[AndrewZ]

Tesla TSLA Receives $500 PT by 2026 from ARK Invest, Based on EVs Alone

Ark Invest has updated its Tesla price target for 2026. Including the stock split, and excluding any of Tesla's businesses other than EVs, the firm expects the price to be $500 per share, four times the current price.

www.tesmanian.com

ARK Invest analyst Tasha Keeney has published an update on the firm's view of Tesla's share price in 2026. The forecast has been adjusted to reflect a 3-for-1 stock split that took effect on August 25, 2022. The new $500-per-share PT included only an assessment of growth potential in the automotive division and excluded all others. The adjusted price is four times the current price.

Gotta love a 60-70% compounding annual growth bear case from 2022 numbers

So with 1.3million deliveries in 2022, 10m bear case in 2026, you’d hope for at least 2.1million deliveries this year and preferably closer to 2.2

 

[Singuy]

Agreed. You know something is amiss when Elon has not liked a single one of these posts about TE. Usually he will give you much stronger signals than this.

I like how we continue to speculate without any actual proof in numbers. And it did not take long for Matt and Gary Black to start putting some value to TE. Let’s at least wait for the earnings call but yeah like I said Elon has not liked a single one of these energy tweets. I say we are going to be disappointed.

Yeah one big warning sign is compared to q2 vs q3, gross margin for energy storage/solar went from 12% DOWN to 10%, while solar deployment was down about 12% QOQ but storage deployment almost DOUBLED. So this is not very encouraging to me, you would think GM goes up as storage deployment goes up if their GM is at 50% or whatever while solar is the actual drag.

So maybe Lanthrop's opex got recognized which killed gm as it was operational q3? Too early to tell right now.

 

[Rarity]

Of course, predicting the future is fraught with uncertainty, which is what makes Elon's aspirations in 2014 so notable, that he hit half a million in 2020, even with the COVID shutdowns and chip shortages.

Is the future fraught with uncertainty? Perhaps less than you might imagine. For manufacturing of complex objects such as autos, you can see the future out a few years by looking at what capacity is being built now. Because of this, Musk's prediction that Tesla will be worth more than Apple and Aramco combined in five years or so should not be considered outlandish or based merely on hopes.

 

[GOVA]

Leo does own billions of dollars worth of Tesla and has good reason for his concerns

Yea, Buffet and Ellison don't own any shares so they don't have to cry every day that their stocks go up and down. Got it.

 

[navguy12]

Welllllll excuuuuuse me. Personally I think he's a good case study and deserves his own thread. Does one exist yet?

I agree. Instead of his personal (and somewhat understandable) handwringing, why not have a very frank and honest audit of his actions and activities that can become a lessons learned..?

 

[Nocturnal]

So handles better, more range , quite, cheaper.....

I don’t understand the part of people not caring about vehicles finding this compelling? Rather it would seem the M3 would be a choice for people not caring? Or is there something else I didn’t get ?

Show me the track times and we can talk about better handling. I'm not going to take the word of a single 25 year old in a Hawaiin shirt as proof.

 

[sdtslafan]

I am now seeing at least 50 and likely more Model Y long ranges in inventory within 200 miles of San Diego. Not a single performance model! Any ideas why there is such an influx of long range but not a single performance model? I really can't imagine many people buying a Tesla right now at full price when there was a $7500 discount just 10 days ago. Some customers may expect to benefit from the IRA but that only applies to the 7 seater version of the model Y currently and they won't get the benefit till they file their taxes. Wouldn't most of these model Y buyers have already bought at the end of December when there was an immediate discount? Feels like Tesla is wasting time and should just provide a new incentive to spur demand right now. What am I missing? Do others have any anecdotal evidence to help explain what is going on?

 

[Nocturnal]

Another perspective on the financial markets:

Russell Napier: The world will experience a capex boom

Market strategist and historian Russell Napier warns of a 15- to 20-year phase of structurally elevated inflation and financial repression. He shares his views on how investors should prepare for this new world.

themarket.ch

What will this new world mean for investors?

First of all: avoid government bonds. Investors in government debt are the ones who will be robbed slowly. Within equities, there are sectors that will do very well. The great problems we have – energy, climate change, defence, inequality, our dependence on production from China – will all be solved by massive investment. This capex boom could last for a long time. Companies that are geared to this renaissance of capital spending will do well.

Well, that might fit.

 

[mrmage]

The stock price being down, doesn’t bother me. I can wait it out.

It’s this crap that bothers me:

Big Tesla Shareholder Mounts a Rebellion Against Elon Musk - TheStreet

Leo KoGuan is one of the largest retail investors in the electric vehicle manufacturer.

www.thestreet.com

As I’ve said before, Leo and Ross is NO GOOD for Tesla.

One thing is for sure: when times are tough, a person finds out who their true supporters are. And no, I’m not blindly supporting Elon. There are things Elon has done that I don’t like but overall still a net positive and Tesla has a great plan and is executing well. To hell with the slightly missed deliveries FUD.

Maybe Elon didn’t put in as much money as Leo and did cash out several billion to buy Twitter (which is his right). But Elon put in his LIFE while Leo is just sitting around home, armchair quarterbacking and putting in his wife’s money.

Some / most people on this forum feel that Elon deserves a pass this past year because of his prior accomplishments. His net deeds are undoubtedly positive for this world, so maybe that's justified for anyone who bought substantially below $100 prior to 2022, when Elon put everything he had into Tesla.

The expectation for recent investors like Leo, though, is for everyone working at Tesla *today* to put in their best efforts. This goes 10x more for the CEO, and one of the CEO's duties is to act in the best interests of shareholders. This past year has been a massive fail. No new investor expects the CEO to unnecessarily drive the share price down or alienate customers, the key being *unnecessary*.

All investors, new and old, deserve the kind of CEO that Elon was prior to 2022. If he is not willing to do this, he should pass the torch to someone who will. Like Leo, my preference is for Elon to be the CEO he used to be, but that's not in my control. He sees no end to Elon 2.0, so he's simply exercising the options available.

Because I still have a large TSLA position, I'm grateful for investors like Leo. While Elon was dumping billions of $ in shares, investors like him bought and kept it from falling. If those investors get tired of this and dump their holdings like someone did the past couple weeks, expect a rout far worse than what we've seen.

Anyone who feels former Elon supporters are turning on him just because TSLA is down, ask whether Apple investors are similarly turning on Tim Cook because AAPL is down. When I sold most my TSLA position in December, I capitulated on Elon, not on Tesla. I have no doubt that's what many others have done as well.

Be careful what you wish for. You might get what you ask.

 

[navguy12]

It's called short and distort.

You can be sure that big organized short sellers work hand in hand with anybody that can get their negative messages out to the masses. That includes large established media companies, organized troll armies on Facebook, Reddit and Twitter etc. You can see clearly when the same carefully selected negative message is repeated over and over in all the places I described above sometime word for word. I have seen the same negative message spammed to many unrelated Reddit subreddits and upvoted at the same time for high visibility. The technology subreddit is one where it happens regularly.

Who would love to buy a Tesla? Most likely someone in the Reddit technology subreddit that's who. But when they see constant coordinated negative posts regarding Elon, Tesla build quality, FSD, and any number of other things, they think twice about buying one. You don't want to see the most upvoted comments on those posts. Concern trolls everywhere. They do their best to cover the brand and Elon in sugar to get what they want and unfortunately it works. There is just way too much in it for everyone involved.

One of the best places to see this firsthand is to go to Electrek's comment section for any post they have regarding Tesla or Elon. I don't know if it's happening today because I refuse to go to that sh*thole website for any reason. But it was really bad back in the day and I am sure it's still bad today. Parroting the same negative messages telling you reliability is terrible, whompy wheels (old one ), FSD is super dangerous, they lie about range, etc.

Can I prove any of this? No. But when you see the same thing happening over and over for many years, it has to be organized and it has to be profitable for the people that make it happen.

Its too bad.

On Wednesday of last week, I drove my four year and eight month old TM3 430 kms to see my dad for (a late Christmas) supper; turned around and drove the 430 kms back home the very next day.

The weather was crap, but NOA/Autosteer took 95% of the load from me; the latest software version (single stack) has made improvements to the visibility of data on the UI for these wintertime long distance drives.

As I was saying to a friend of mine this morning, my car STILL feels like a spaceship and I wish that I could get even more people to come for test drives (when the weather is right) as they are always sold after they actually drive the car.

 

[Max Plaid]

I love it, because just maybe some of this will get Elon to acknowledge the fact that some of his actions are harming shareholders and he can start showing the restraint he once had.

I think it already has, looks like Elon toned-down the garbage and has been somewhat contrite as of late

He also appears to be a bit more Tesla-focused once again

We'll see

 

[SO16]

Some / most people on this forum feel that Elon deserves a pass this past year because of his prior accomplishments. His net deeds are undoubtedly positive for this world, so maybe that's justified for anyone who bought substantially below $100 prior to 2022, when Elon put everything he had into Tesla.

The expectation for recent investors like Leo, though, is for everyone working at Tesla *today* to put in their best efforts. This goes 10x more for the CEO, and one of the CEO's duties is to act in the best interests of shareholders. This past year has been a massive fail. No new investor expects the CEO to unnecessarily drive the share price down or alienate customers, the key being *unnecessary*.

All investors, new and old, deserve the kind of CEO that Elon was prior to 2022. If he is not willing to do this, he should pass the torch to someone who will. Like Leo, my preference is for Elon to be the CEO he used to be, but that's not in my control. He sees no end to Elon 2.0, so he's simply exercising the options that he has available.

Because I still have a large TSLA position, I'm grateful for investors like Leo. While Elon was dumping billions of $ in shares, investors like him bought and kept it from falling. If those investors get tired of this and dump their holdings like someone did the past couple weeks, expect a rout far worse than what we've seen.

Anyone who feels former Elon supporters are turning on him just because TSLA is down, ask whether Apple investors are similarly turning on Tim Cook because AAPL is down. When I sold most my TSLA position in December, I capitulated on Elon, not on Tesla. I have no doubt that's what many others have done as well.

Be careful what you wish for. You might get what you ask.

I will wait and judge AFTER this next earnings call and Investors meeting in march. Until then, people are just guessing on reasons.

AAPL doesn’t have the media pushing FUD constantly over a damn phone. The industry disruption by Tesla is next level.

 

[mrmage]

I will wait and judge AFTER this next earnings call.

AAPL doesn’t have the media pushing FUD constantly over a damn iPhone.

Even if earnings is good, there is still no reason to unnecessarily drive the share price down or alienate customers. The two are not mutually exclusive.

 

[ElectricIAC]

Even if earnings is good, there is still no reason to unnecessarily drive the share price down or alienate customers. The two are not mutually exclusive.

Blame the FUD spewing MSM and haters who amplify their garbage for that.

 

[AndrewZ]

I am now seeing at least 50 and likely more Model Y long ranges in inventory within 200 miles of San Diego. Not a single performance model! Any ideas why there is such an influx of long range but not a single performance model? I really can't imagine many people buying a Tesla right now at full price when there was a $7500 discount just 10 days ago. Some customers may expect to benefit from the IRA but that only applies to the 7 seater version of the model Y currently and they won't get the benefit till they file their taxes. Wouldn't most of these model Y buyers have already bought at the end of December when there was an immediate discount? Feels like Tesla is wasting time and should just provide a new incentive to spur demand right now. What am I missing? Do others have any anecdotal evidence to help explain what is going on?

Model Y new US inventory on EV-CPO has gone from almost zero at the end of the year to 800+ in a week

More price cuts are coming

 

[navguy12]

You confirm my malaise when I see someone other car tailgating me too close and I press just lightly on the accelerator during that time before I can change line or take over the car blocking me from going away from the usual pick ups who love to tail gate Teslas

I’m always driving for two vehicles when I use any of the ADAS systems in my TM3 if/when someone is within one second (at current velocity) of the rear end of my car.

 

[Big Time]

The Megapack/energy margins that some people view as impossible, yet I without doing any real deep dive…..I see as probable. Timeline, not so sure.

In previous quarters Tesla couldn’t manufacture the mega packs because they wanted to streamline Model Y production and put every available chip & battery into the vehicles. Not only that they made a different Megapack compared to the new model.

Now seamingly just in this last quarter we are seeing perhaps an excess of batteries and potentially stockpiles of new 4680 Model Y batteries in Austin.

If Tesla can source all the batteries it needs to satisfy demand for its current production capacity, I see them putting as much supply & manufacturing firepower as possible into Megapack.

Hopefully you all can help me realize what the COGs would be for the Megapack.

Batteries….
Case….
Labor….
Software….
Maintenance & Install….

Everyone is very Gung-Ho(technical term) for FSD margins being so very high due to it only being software…..

yet that’s similar to Megapack…..they are both in layman’s terms software running on top of batteries, except it costs the customer millions…..

 

[vikings123]

I am now seeing at least 50 and likely more Model Y long ranges in inventory within 200 miles of San Diego. Not a single performance model! Any ideas why there is such an influx of long range but not a single performance model? I really can't imagine many people buying a Tesla right now at full price when there was a $7500 discount just 10 days ago. Some customers may expect to benefit from the IRA but that only applies to the 7 seater version of the model Y currently and they won't get the benefit till they file their taxes. Wouldn't most of these model Y buyers have already bought at the end of December when there was an immediate discount? Feels like Tesla is wasting time and should just provide a new incentive to spur demand right now. What am I missing? Do others have any anecdotal evidence to help explain what is going on?

Yeah it is perplexing for sure especially when you consider some of that inventory is 7 seater Model Ys.

My guess is they are working with IRS to get the 5 seater model Y classified as an SUV. Even if it gets classified as an SUV it remains to be seen if there is enough demand at the current price of 65K. So IMO it is good to have inventory on hand to see what the response to demand will be.

Who knows when we can expect a resolution from IRA but regardless I expect prices will need to be dropped. Just look at the inventory for 7 seater model Ys. There are a lot of them sitting at service centers and Model Y 7 seater already qualifies for IRS rebate at 80K MSRP.

 

[mrmage]

Blame the FUD spewing MSM and haters who amplify their garbage for that.

That's a convenient excuse, but Elon's former supporters are not influenced by that. This is what I mean when I said I capitulated on Elon, but don't see people turning on Tim Cook. They did not get turned off from Elon because of MSM or haters or anyone amplifying anything.

I judged Elon based on his actions and words. It's unreasonable to believe Elon's former supporters were influenced by MSM or SP drops when they weren't in 2019 when the stock was in the dumps and there was even more FUD. You may not agree with their reasoning, but it's denial to think it's not related to Elon's actions.

 

[Speedr117]

Zerosum has the right idea, but he is way too unrealistically bullish on TE margins. The megapack business is scaling and it's starting to become something tangible to earnings, BUT it's not going to ever see 70%-80% margins, that's just silly. It seems to me he largely ignores installation costs and how volume production actually ramps in real life.

I think if we get to 30% margins on megapacks by the end of 2023 we'll be super lucky.

He covered that. Basically the customer pays for everything, and there's margin on it. The Megapack is $2 million+, the install is like $250k, and then there's a maintenance contract of $8k per megawatt (if I remember the last part right). He's saying the core purchase has 50% margin, and installation has 25% margin.

The reason all this works is because they basically pay for themselves after a few years, and the federal government is paying for between 30% and 50% of the costs.

It really is a perfect storm, and Tesla seems to be the only one to really jump on it at scale.