Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[petit_bateau]

Question: do bankrupt auto companies actually lead to permanent loss of jobs & production in most of their factories? or is it usually a temporary situation as other companies swoop in and gobble up the auto plants for cents on the dollar?

Just thinking that large ICE auto factories in USA, Japan, EU are still probably good assets in terms of the fact they are already built (saving years of design & construction), are operating with all the consents / permits needed for auto production, have some assets that can be reused for EV auto production (paint shops etc).

So maybe GM or Ford etc going bankrupt wont lead to widespread doom as expected in the areas they operate, as new owners will still need workers when they takeover (much like Tesla did in Fremont). Sure it will be gloomy for sure for Ford/GM shareholders - and the UAW - but for the cities they operate in it might actually bring new life into their areas eventually as new owners (EV companies presumably) arrive with actual sustainable businesses.

Or am I being too optimistic?

Most US auto plants are quite small, very few seem to be above 300k, most are about 250k or less. So if the new minimum scale for an auto plant to cost-effectively use castings etc is (say) 1m/yr and a more appropriate long term scale is (say) 2m/yr, then there are going to be a lot of permanently shuttered auto factories in the US and around the world.

The 15 Top-Producing American Car Plants

We List The 15 American Car Factories With the Highest Annual Production Volume.

www.motortrend.com

And this is not new. What makes it somewhat different this time is that the auto market has been gowing strongly since WW2, which meant that even as some (many) plants closed, others opened in other countries, masking the closures to an extent. But now as demographics (and ?? economic ) growth slows around the world the effect will become more apparent imho. And when an auto plant shutters so does its localised supply chain (though not the longer range supply chain).

List of former automotive manufacturing plants - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

 

[jerry33]

I have no problem with your viewpoint that strictly focusing on charging time is not the appropriate metric of value. That's fine.

But to say "Dead wrong" on a point predicated on the math of charge vs. refuel times (when that timing is not in dispute), and then support it by speaking instead to an entirely separate point (a value judgment regarding the best usage of that time), is not how logical reasoned discourse works.

If you want to say, "I think that's focusing on the wrong thing", then sure.

But my point is NOT dead wrong. You can refuel an ICE vehicle faster than you can recharge your Tesla. Full stop. If you want further proof on that, simply look at Tesla's charging page, wherein in states you can gain 200 miles of range in 15 minutes. Compare that to the average car that gets 25MPG. In the 15 minutes it takes a Tesla to gain 200 miles of range, that ICE car (at than half the rate what Wikipedia says gas pumps can do) could pump 75 gallons. That's 1,875 miles worth of gas, provided it had the tank size.

So by all means, make all the points you want about the value of that extra time. I'll likely be in your corner on that., But that's a separate argument.

Correct, although the real metric should be average stop time rather than just fill time because few people just fill and go.

 

[jerry33]

Profitable Investing is not a popularity contest. quite the opposite. All it requires is placing a bigger and heavier bet whenever odds are in your favor and letting it play itself out. so, in practice you could be wrong most of the time but as long as you do not lose your entire capital, all you need is one big bet or a few good bets that turn out in your favor and you make big money. many unsophisticated investors mistake clarity of thought, being inordinately articulate and brilliant presentation of facts/opinions as equivalent to great investing results. not necessarily. great orators can be great investors but it is not a requirement. it can actually be quite hard to find that unique combination. so, listening to influencers in Tesla community may not necessarily be a critical ingredient for good results.
why should anyone listen to what i have to say? they should not. Highly profitable Investing is a relatively lone profession. while TMC is a great place to get timely information and also a good place to learn from experienced investors, it is not a substitute for your own thinking.
as far as blaming anyone else beside yourself for your investment outcome, that is mark of an unsuccessful investor. i would even argue that great investors do not blame even themselves. they accept the outcome of their decisions, learn from them and move on.
Successful Investing is very simple in theory but very hard in practice. less than 1% succeed while 99% fail.
that is all i have to say tonight. good to see TSLA in green. Odds of 2023 being a repeat of 2022 are lower while odds of 2023 similar to 2009 are probably higher.

TL;DR Investors generally make money if they choose the correct company. Speculators almost always lose in the long run because the house almost always has tomorrow's Info today.

 

[CitizenKane]

I thought we were talking about customers.

Them too.
As a customer, I understand that all corporate communication is prone to exaggeration. I don't necessarily think that I will get happy and beautiful by drinking a coca cola, like in their commercials. But the line between marketing and deceit is there too of course, if you have been explicitly promised something and don't receive it, then that's a problem.

Did the video induce customers to believe that the Tesla they were buying would be able to drive by itself? Or did it showcase a coming technological possibility. Truth possibly somewhere in between. Just looking at forums, Tesla bulls have been optimistic about progress and timing, bears have been sure FSD would never happen. So it at least seems clear there have been different ways to interpret the communications. As a buyer of a Tesla car, I feel marketing has possibly been overly optimistic, but I can't say I have ever felt outright deceived. I took a Tesla car for a test run before I bought mine in 2016 and everything the test car could do, mine could too.

Marketing laws differ between countries but in a Swedish context and having some knowledge about the legal framework here, I don't think there is a case for customers to claim some sort of compensation or for Tesla to be fined due to that video.

 

[Prunesquallor]

Premarket +3.5%

 

[2daMoon]

Premarket +3.5%

I think I see light at the edge of the Black Hole.
The CGEH is getting nearer.

 

[traxila]

The fact that the 2016 FSD story going around means nothing to SP right now should be very illuminating for people as to how this Wall Street game works.

A month ago SP would have been down 10%.

BTW, what about this fraud FSD story from 2016? Having a hard time spinning it for myself to a good place. Why do this at all? Why post a video that is at best misleading and at worst completely fabricated? I remember watching that video and playing it for my children as proof of what was about to happen. Then 7 years later this story and no true FSD.

 

[SebastienBonny]

The fact that the 2016 FSD story going around means nothing to SP right now should be very illuminating for people as to how this Wall Street game works.

A month ago SP would have been down 10%.

BTW, what about this fraud FSD story from 2016? Having a hard time spinning it for myself to a good place. Why do this at all? Why post a video that is at best misleading and at worst completely fabricated? I remember watching that video and playing it for my children as proof of what was about to happen. Then 7 years later this story and no true FSD.

Exactly this. It started with the price cuts. There were reactions, but those reactions were gone intraday or the day after. Now the stock is up on that news. It's not were fundamentals bring is, it's where WS wants us to be.

 

[Prunesquallor]

Alex Voigt:

Tesla plans to apply for a massive expansion of Giga Berlin in the coming months. Parts of the application have already been discussed with the responsible officials: Tesla plans to triple the production capacity of the battery factory according to official sources

Currently, Tesla is allowed to build batteries with a total volume of 50 GWh of electricity per year in Giga Berlin

With the expansions now being targeted, this figure is set to rise to 150 GWh

https://twitter.com/x/status/1615685421672894464

 

[scaesare]

Correct, although the real metric should be average stop time rather than just fill time because few people just fill and go.

Indeed. Hence the fact that gas stations make little to no profit on the fuel... it's all in the convenience store.

 

[jamaatta]

Finnsh tabloid today: "Is there any reason to buy other ev than Tesla?"

And the answer in the article is more or less "no".

Näkökulma: Miksi ostaa muuta kuin Tesla?

Tesla pudotti autojensa hintoja ja käynnisti sähköautojen hintasodan, missä voittajina ovat autonostajat, kirjoittaa Iltalehden Mikko Räsänen.

www.iltalehti.fi

 

[trayloader]

Tesla in D is now up almost 6%.
Unleashing the beast.
More heads are rolling at Mercedes.

This time Product strategy and Product planning.
Plus the head CTO seems under fire.
Guess the EQ line is having a hard time?

"The Year of the Ape"
the shape of things to come.

"

 

[joh01652]

How much would you pay for a Plaid Model 3? You know, 2 carbon-wrapped SRPM motors (no front AC motor). Up to 760 hp (software limited), or 850 hp uncorked (battery limited). Est'd 0-60 mph in 2.9 sec, Quarter mile in 10.3 sec @ 131 mph. Top speed - software limited to max tire speed rating.

Maybe we're seeing a Plaid Model 3 prototype testing on the track at Fremont in this week's video:

Tesla Fremont 01/17 | Met God in Wilderness / YouTube - videos

BTW 830 hp in a 4,200 lb car (w. driver) gives a 10.00 sec Qtr-mile at 135 mph (track mode)

So... wood u pay $70Gs?

I'd gladly pay $80K for a bare-bones Model Y with 500 miles (804 km) of range so I could do some actual towing work with it. I drive across the U.S. frequently with a loaded vehicle, bikes on the back, at least one passenger, through snow and rain, etc. I might even get a storage pod on the top or a small travel trailer if it got 500 miles on a full charge...

Fast cars are nice, but work cars are better for everyday use. I could see a big market for a 500 mile range Model Y. I've never been a pickup truck guy because I also like to sleep in my car, but if there's a way to get from the cab back into the covered bed for climate-controlled sleeping I will get a Cybertruck. Maybe some day Tesla will make a long long range Y in limited quantities, like the S and the X.

 

[Unpilot]

Hoping for a little FOMO.

 

[UncaNed]

Effort to get SEC to do their job....
"Occupy SEC" LINK
Video about it on Charles Payne:

Why is this the first I've heard about this?

WTF are there only 4 likes??? How can this not be worth the time of almost everyone here to take a day or two to head to their local SEC office and try to make some sort of statement?

 

[trayloader]

EQ line under fire:
Excerpt from Mercedes-fans.de, one of the main independent Mercedes outlets and a litmus test publication about the general mood within the company:


The Manager Magazin writes "Quarrels in the realm of the stars". It claims to have learned of internal squabbles in the executive suite of Mercedes-Benz, makes them the top topic and titles the exclusive research as follows: "Why Mercedes development boss Markus Schäfer is getting under fire" According to this report, the house is in a very bad way in the executive suite of the Mercedes-Benz Group, which is always outwardly so unanimously turned towards the electric future and luxury orientation.
Markus Schäfer has a lot on his shoulders: He is supposed to get the electric-only strategy rolling in the form of cars that people want. He's supposed to fix it. He's supposed to develop it. He's supposed to do it. He's the man. This position gives him a lot of influence in the Group. In return, he enjoys the full confidence of CEO Källenius - at least until recently. As Manager Magazin has learned from insiders, the relationship between the two high-ranking Mercedes managers is apparently beginning to deteriorate. According to the article in the generally well-informed Manager Magazin, Schäfer is having an increasingly difficult time internally.

Who is Markus Schäfer?

Markus Schäfer has been a member of the Board of Management of Daimler, now Mercedes-Benz Group, since May 22, 2019. On the Board of Management, he is Head of Development & Purchasing and has also been Chief Technology Officer since December 1, 2021. In this function, he is responsible for the holistic development process of Mercedes-Benz Cars and Purchasing at Group level. His current Board of Management mandate runs until May 2024. If you will, Markus Schäfer is the most important employee for Ola Källenius' ambitious premium luxury electric plans. Schäfer is something like the personified future of the star. But now doubts are arising internally about the choice of person. Is Schäfer still the right man? The relationship between Källenius and Schäfer seems to have soured, writes Manager Magazin, and also names the reason for this: "Schäfer fluffs on central projects.

Internal criticism of Mercedes development board member: "Blunders on central projects.
Where things should be moving in the direction of the future in the Schaefer division, there are obviously sometimes major snags. For example, in the new production facility "Factory 56", which has been showered with much praise, the premium upper class models EQS and S-Class have been assembled here for 18 months - but Factory 56 is a long way from excellent premium manufacturing quality. "Already, readjustments and repairs have to be made; there have been recalls. In any case, the next plant will not be built according to the Hall 56 concept," whispers one person involved to Manager Magazin. Oha, of all things Factory 56 is weakening - it was supposed to be the blueprint for the digital car factory of the future. So now its concept for Mercedes-Benz production facilities to be built in the future is being discarded again?
The sales figures for the high-priced e-cars from Mercedes-Benz are not really taking off either. The sales figures for the electric flagship Mercedes EQS, for example, are lagging well behind the original plans. Only 8,400 orders for the EQS were placed by customers around the world in the first half of 2022. The sales plans were much more ambitious. The Mercedes-Benz Group wanted to sell 50,000 units of the EQS worldwide in 2022. The star can probably collect this target for this year, especially since the sales figures for the premium E-models with the star in China, by far the most important Mercedes market, are so disastrously low that Mercedes-Benz has already had to react with considerable price reductions. Ouch! Is the EQS/EQE possibly underdeveloped for the market? Mercedes boss Källenius is unlikely to spare his development board this question.

 

[Skryll]

[...]

Just thinking that large ICE auto factories in USA, Japan, EU are still probably good assets in terms of the fact they are already built (saving years of design & construction), are operating with all the consents / permits needed for auto production, have some assets that can be reused for EV auto production (paint shops etc).

Design and construction having happened already could also be in the way of doing things better, essential for operational efficiency.

 

[Mengy]

Premarket +3.5%

Yep it's looking like a good morning for TSLA so far. (knocks on wood....)

 

[Todd Burch]

The fact that the 2016 FSD story going around means nothing to SP right now should be very illuminating for people as to how this Wall Street game works.

A month ago SP would have been down 10%.

BTW, what about this fraud FSD story from 2016? Having a hard time spinning it for myself to a good place. Why do this at all? Why post a video that is at best misleading and at worst completely fabricated? I remember watching that video and playing it for my children as proof of what was about to happen. Then 7 years later this story and no true FSD.

Nothingburger IMO. I thought it was obvious and common knowledge that this was a proof of concept demonstration. In fact I think we talked about it at the very time on this forum. Anyone who thought that video meant FSD was right around the corner had their head in the sand.

 

[traxila]

December PPI came in at negative 0.5%, well below the negative 0.1% forecast.

Retail sales also weaker than expected.