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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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Options gambler with big losses. Unwilling to accept the consequences from her choices. Thinks she can win her losses back by trashing the company, rather that the groups who actually took her money: Options Market Makers.

That's right: Citadel Capital, Interactive Brokers, sucked million$ from the unwary. Now those victums are biting the hand that fed them. Sad.

I remember years ago Karen writing here that "buying Shares is like buying Options with 1:1 Leverage". Yo, how's that workin' out? :p

Wonder who lost more? IB with their $5.5 slap on the wrist for naked shorting, or "Influencers" who lost big time playing Options in a rigged Casino? We already know that TE's father lost 10M on his "options strategy", so start with that:


Then there's going "full Greg Wester". All symptoms of "smarter-than-Elon" disease.

People: DON'T USE MARGIN, AVOID OPTIONS LEVERAGE, BUY'N'HOLD FTW.
So my guess was wrong... she didn't go shorty or lost it going short? I am trying to figure out what would make someone so pro Tesla into TeslaQ
 
So my guess was wrong... she didn't go shorty or lost it going short? I am trying to figure out what would make someone so pro Tesla into TeslaQ
Imagine for a moment you were leveraged to the hilt in November of 2021. You have $2m of $1000 strike Tesla calls expiring in April 2022 which you figure are going to double.

Then Musk sells shares and the SP drops and keeps dropping. SP recovers for a bit and when it’s back on the way up, you take a much more conservative position and buy October 2022 Calls 20% under the money. Nice and safe right? When these options expire… you lose it all, or even if you roll them before expiration you can easily lose 80% - 90%. Do this 2-3 times through 2022 and watch your portfolio drop 95%.

It becomes very easy to hate Elon, Twitter, and everything Tesla.
 
Lincoln, Texas?

According to Google Maps that's 202 miles away. Within the range of a single charge, which means no need to stop and charge.

So how does that contradict the statement of, "... when road tripping it's going to take longer to refuel/recharge per mile of range gained"?
Nebaska. Didn’t know there was a Lincoln in Texas.
 
Mod: sufficient has been written about Karen, options, margin, and that other thing. --ggr
Frist time responding to a mod so:

With all due respect, what @Ogre just said made a ton of sense.
As an investor, you have to think about both sides.
I am 100% in multiple accounts long term tsla and will hodl for 10 years plus.
The way I just understood what he said is that there are Tesla lovers, Tsla investors,
and sometimes they are both. Not always though... So you could own a Tesla roof, powerwalls, 3 Tesla's in your driveway, etc. If you add also being an investor to the mix, and you lose a ton of money because you believe it's Elon's fault, then some people sell of their Tesla made products and say be damned to a sustainable future.
So it's true. Money is the ultimate thing for some people even if you thought they were true believers in a cause.

(As in Mission Impossible, this message will probably self destruct quickly, unless
I teach you something you didn't know about the Dunning Kruger Effect?) Lol
 
When she was here I found her to be a mixed bag. Sometimes she wrote brilliant posts and other times she just sounded very confident about things she was wrong about.

I once got into a back and forth with her regarding Lidar HD maps and how to do positioning. She was making inaccurate statements, I knew this because I worked in the field. I explained how it worked, she wrote those convincing counters to my posts. Eventually I linked to the Waymo-video that explained that they did exactly what she said they didn't do with timestamps etc. She didn't see the timestamp and said I should not link long videos. I clarified that the timestamp was under the video. She decided to ignore that response and end the convo. Meanwhile she was very good at getting the forum to agree with her, she had 20upvotes for my 1upvote even though she clearly was wrong about this specific questions.

Debating is tricky. Some people are good at being right, some people are good at convincing people that they are right. I also fall victim to this, sometimes I will try to defend myself when I have been wrong. Usually you can quote selectively, find some weaker statements and attack those, claim that you didn't actually mean what you wrote but some other interpretation of what you wrote. And we do get high on people's validation.

Back then we had two bigger contributers who left at the same time. Factchecking and Karen. Both later became very negative towards Elon on twitter. Maybe they are right and we cult members don't see what they see or maybe they are wrong and Elon is right. It's hard to tell. I find myself not being convinced by their factchecking of Elon. Which makes me wonder if I was wrong in being convinced by their posts here or if I am wrong about Elon now.

Fwiw today I find the MVPs of the Tesla community to be Rob Mauer, James Douma, Gigapress and some new players who it's unclear where they stand but they certainly are growing in influence like zerosumgame33. It's interesting to see those old heroes turn to the dark side, or maybe it was Elon who turned to the dark side. But clearly something has changed and that's interesting and more importantly is an opportunity to find alpha.

Edit: sorry mod, didn't see your comment when I wrote this. Feel free to remove...
Please don't delete this post above... one of the best I have seen.
I don't know the protocol but it should be nominated for something
 
Nebaska. Didn’t know there was a Lincoln in Texas.
OK that makes more sense.

So, given that's a 650 mile trip, I assume at least one, likely 2 or 3 charge/bio/food breaks.... each with sufficient bilogical needs that the charging time didn't add to them? We've done similar.

That's a great argument to make to the uninitiated on how to minimize/negate the charging time impact by planning accordingly. At least for those that aren't Cannonball Runners...
 
Frist time responding to a mod so:

With all due respect, what @Ogre just said made a ton of sense.
As an investor, you have to think about both sides.
I am 100% in multiple accounts long term tsla and will hodl for 10 years plus.
The way I just understood what he said is that there are Tesla lovers, Tsla investors,
and sometimes they are both. Not always though... So you could own a Tesla roof, powerwalls, 3 Tesla's in your driveway, etc. If you add also being an investor to the mix, and you lose a ton of money because you believe it's Elon's fault, then some people sell of their Tesla made products and say be damned to a sustainable future.
So it's true. Money is the ultimate thing for some people even if you thought they were true believers in a cause.

(As in Mission Impossible, this message will probably self destruct quickly, unless
I teach you something you didn't know about the Dunning Kruger Effect?) Lol
Yeah I don't know what happened. You should check out the atmosphere here in 2019. A lot of us vowed to go down with the ship and was prepared for it due to the mission. I did not have the privilege of some folks here who bought near IPO, just HODL and bought the dip as Elon pedals bankruptcy fears on MSM. So I really thought many folks would be stronger than some off the cuff rumor about Elon's personal life that gets to them.
 
The common denominator is their w??e minds, not Elon. Atleast Karen and 28delayslater. Don't know about FactChecking.
From the sounds of it, options trading. At least that seems to have been the case with Tesla Economist and Karen, not sure about the rest.

Very sobering stuff.

I’ve lost more than I care to admit to similar stuff, but kept it to a small enough portion of my portfolio and kept most of my trades longer term.

I still think aggressive options trading is a big part of the Tesla crash in 2022. Absolutely massive retail options traffic was like a lit fuse and someone figured out how to cash in on the implosion. If the SEC were doing it’s job, it would be working to prevent this sort of wealth destruction.
 
From the sounds of it, options trading. At least that seems to have been the case with Tesla Economist and Karen, not sure about the rest.

Very sobering stuff.

I’ve lost more than I care to admit to similar stuff, but kept it to a small enough portion of my portfolio and kept most of my trades longer term.

I still think aggressive options trading is a big part of the Tesla crash in 2022. Absolutely massive retail options traffic was like a lit fuse and someone figured out how to cash in on the implosion. If the SEC were doing it’s job, it would be working to prevent this sort of wealth destruction.
Well some people who plays the gamma squeeze are looking at Tesla the same again but with puts this time instead of calls.
 
Well some people who plays the gamma squeeze are looking at Tesla the same again but with puts this time instead of calls.
Can you imagine being one of the few who rode tesla correctly both directions? Citadel I assume?

I’m the dummy who missed both (sold feb 2020 after 6 years of hodling due to fear of covid. Planned to get back in but it just kept running away from me. Made some money on options but nothing compared to just holding shares).

Bought 3/4 back in September of 2022. Almost waited long enough, but not quite. Looking to put the other 1/4 to work but bought a used model S in Oct that I need to unload first.
 
Did you really think that in the discussion wherein time spent refueling versus supercharging, the comparison was between gasoline refueling and home charging?

Option A: You did, and clearly need help with context clues.

Option B: You didn't, and are making a specious argument.

Giving you the benefit of the doubt, I'll assume you weren't assuming folks had a supercharger at their homes. Therefore we must be talking about situations where supercharging is necessary: road trips or those with no home charging option. Therefore, your assertion that there isn't a difference in that scenario is:



is... umm.. dead wrong.

Allow me to repeat myself: ignoring the differences. between ICE's and EV's does no good. Let's talk facts. That means acknowledging where EV's are at a disadvantage, as well as pointing out advantages. Representing the facts will only help.

You point out a good advantage: starting every day from home with a a full charge. Tout that, it's compelling. Don't conflate it with the fact when road tripping it's going to take longer to refuel/recharge per mile of range gained. It's just math.
Option C: I wasn't disputing your math. I totally understand that you were focusing purely on mathematics and weren't trying to bash EV's, and that you were focusing on Supercharging. No worries - I don't view you negatively at all.

I dispute the presupposition that the math is meaningful or useful as a comparative metric: that is the "dead wrong" bit. I reject the equivalency between fueling up time and charging up in any context - even on the road with a Supercharger, which I have done for years, it is fundamentally different. In fact, I should also add that we need to flip the argument that a 4-minute fuel-up is somehow superior on a road trip: it is in fact unhealthy (even without taking into consideration fumes and greasy/packaged gas station food).

I started with at-home charging to point out the principle. You may have missed my 3rd last paragraph (yeah, I talk too much) about Supercharging - I was ending up there. I'll expand:

On my most recent road trip with my son, we decided to see how fast we could go. We arrived at each Supercharger with 3-10% charge remaining, and then only charged up enough to arrive at the next one at that SoC. It worked like a charm. Twice we underestimated excess consumption, so we slowed down from going 10-15 km/h over the speed limit to speed limit, and it was just fine (and still never arrived with less than 3% remaining). This means we're driving for 1.25 - 2 hours between stops. Actually, studies show that we should be taking breaks from sitting every 30 minutes - so any reduction is healthy for us. It also always keeps us charging near the maximum rate - we'd usually leave with less than 40% SoC. Almost all Superchargers were within 1-2 minutes of the Trans-Canada highway.

The problem was, the car tended to be ready sooner than we were - we enjoyed taking quick hikes around the block, or when we were in the mountains, finding a trail nearby. And, of course, when it was time to eat, a restaurant meant we charged up to 100% and we could skip the next Supercharger stop (if we wanted to - we usually ended up stopping for 5 minutes to stretch our legs and chat with other cool humans: another neat thing about SC's). It would take us 3 extra seconds to plug in (just like at home) since most Superchargers are very near restaurants or strip malls/stores (and we plan it out so we don't hit the crappy SCs in Saskatchewan during supper). So whenever we stopped to eat, even to buy a quick takeout lunch, we were saving time vs a gas car (plus getting more exercise - we didn't have to hang around the pump) because we could charge while consuming.

In the end, I spent less time actually driving (because we have early adopter free Supercharging, we didn't worry about wasting electrons going over the speed limit most of the time...), and the total trip was maybe a couple of hours longer - because we were forcing ourselves to take more breaks of 10+ minutes each, we felt more refreshed at the end of a long day of driving, got better rest, and could get earlier starts.

All this to say, I'm not against "facts," but I believe it's important to avoid falling into comparative traps that don't have pragmatic value, and talking about facts in isolation (ie. Supercharging is really a fraction of charging over a car's lifetime).

When people start pushing back about charging time (road trip or otherwise), and I tell them, "It takes me 3 seconds to charge" - they have never failed to stop, do a double-take, and when I explain, they reply, "Huh, I've never thought about it that way before" (because 3 seconds is just as factually correct as saying the hours/minutes for the battery to fill up on its own: it's a big boy, just needs permission). And if they push further, I then talk about how the only time I EVER charge from near-empty to full is on a road trip, and again, because I only do that while eating at a restaurant, the answer is the same: it only takes me 3 seconds, and then I live my life. 🥂

(sorry mods, I'll stop with this topic now. I think the principle of examining pre-suppositions applies to investing as well, but it's becoming a stretch...😊)
 
Can you imagine being one of the few who rode tesla correctly both directions? Citadel I assume?

I’m the dummy who missed both (sold feb 2020 after 6 years of hodling due to fear of covid. Planned to get back in but it just kept running away from me. Made some money on options but nothing compared to just holding shares).

Bought 3/4 back in September of 2022. Almost waited long enough, but not quite. Looking to put the other 1/4 to work but bought a used model S in Oct that I need to unload first.
At the risk of being a "dummy", we just sit on the sideline enjoying the show