Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Artful Dodger]

Maybe Tesla is planning for some huge force majuere hindering production

Lol, how does one plan for a force majeure? You can fortify the company in general, address any known vulnerabilities, but a force majeure event is by definition unknowable, and outside the control of the company. Like covfefe, or the war, or JPow...

 

[lafrisbee]

<--- Opened Tesla ordering page, entered CC#, Fingers hovering over keyboard
Now I will just sit here until Investor Day waiting for them to accept deposits on Model 2 hatchback.

 

[S3XY]

Had an interesting conversation with a former work mate. He did a test drive in a 2023 model Y. (He has been in ours). He was dissapointed in the lack of parking sensors and parking tech for the price and class of the car. I was surprised to hear they hadn’t been restored to the new cars. I though the plan was to do all that with cameras.

Anyway. He has put his purchase plans on hold until he gets some clarification from tesla via email.

So is there a plan or is that just the result of an all vision car?

Thoughts?

The obvious thing for them to do is to purchase in inferior EV for more money so they don't have to suffer the incredible inconvenience of not having parking sensors for a few months.

 

[JupiterMan]

I think solar is a lost cause at this point. I've heard not such good reviews of Tesla's solar products; I suspect Tesla is going to let this business go.

I'm not so sure.

Elon mentioned Solar as being an important third pillar twice this week - once in Nevada and once during the earnings call.

Not a big contributor, but important to the company mission so I cant see him letting it go.

 

[2daMoon]

I doubt they'll discontinue or replace the M3. My feeling is the M2 platform will be a very basic and very cheap small vehicle, probably a coupe or hatchback, smaller in size than the M3 using materials of much lower cost. I believe there is room in the market for both designs, and since the M3 is already established and in production I think they'd want to keep that revenue source going.

We'll likely know the answer by the end of this year!

It is there any reason that using front and rear castings and any other cost savings they can come up with in production (battery/pack credits) that this could not result in the M3 being offered at a sub 30K starting price with a decent margin?

Tax credit could then bring it down to ~22K for the customer, hitting that sweet spot to keep buyer's attention until the next models are available.

This M3 could come to market quicker after existing line upgrades (Fremont/Shanghai) than would the new models that follow only after new factory construction and ramping is complete.

 

[MP3Mike]

I share your concern over lack of R&D. Tesla should be spending money on building a car at a price point that appeals to the average consumer. There is probably enough demand for the current lineup for a couple of years, but if Tesla wants to make EVs as widely available as possible, they need to build a cheap car.

What lack of R&D? They have already said that they are developing a high volume/lower cost car. That is likely the Gen 3 platform that they will talk about in about 5 weeks, at the investor day.

Essentially just because they aren't warning the competition of what they are doing doesn't mean they are sitting on their laurels doing nothing. They might have also been trying to avoid "Osborning" sales of their current vehicles. (Why do the "Tesla stretch" if you can just wait for the smaller low-cost vehicle.)

 

[Artful Dodger]

It is there any reason that using front and rear castings and any other cost savings they can come up with in production (battery credits) that this could not result in the M3 being offered at a sub 30K starting price with a decent margin?

The issue with Model 3 for European and Asian markets is NOT its price, it is simply TOO BIG. Tesla must build a smaller car for that segment, or somebody else will. BTW, small cars are the biggest auto segment in Europe.

 

[JRP3]

Is there a reverse of the uptick rule that got triggered at +10% which broke the momentum ?

Profit taking, I'm guilty, the +$50 from lows is too tempting.

 

[Hiline]

The issue with Model 3 for European and Asian markets is NOT its price, it is simply TOO BIG. Tesla must build a smaller car for that segment, or somebody else will. BTW, small cars are the biggest auto segment in Europe.

Not only in Europe. Probably the world outside of North America. Tesla would be foolish not to create a product that's well suited for smaller roads.

 

[Pezpunk]

What lack of R&D? They have already said that they are developing a high volume/lower cost car. That is likely the Gen 3 platform that they will talk about in about 5 weeks, at the investor day.

Essentially just because they aren't warning the competition of what they are doing doesn't mean they are sitting on their laurels doing nothing. They might have also been trying to avoid "Osborning" sales of their current vehicles. (Why do the "Tesla stretch" if you can just wait for the smaller low-cost vehicle.)

i'd love to see a luxury SUV that doesn't look like an egg on wheels, a pickup truck that actually fits in the average garage, a work van (aka the kind of vehicle most actual workers use), and yes the sub-compact "euro-sized" car currently under development.

the S3XY lineup is too limited in variety for current long-term growth targets, and Tesla has been too slow getting new products to market.

 

[2daMoon]

The issue with Model 3 for European and Asian markets is NOT its price, it is simply TOO BIG. Tesla must build a smaller car for that segment, or somebody else will. BTW, small cars are the biggest auto segment in Europe.

I wasn't implying that a smaller car(s) not be built. Only that a better/cheaper M3 could slide into a lower price point slot in the mean time.

They do seem to not have any plans to discontinue the M3, what with the Highlander project being news. If they have multiple M3 lines in Fremont and Shanghai a partial shutdown wouldn't cripple M3 production. Then once a couple of Highlander M3 lines are running, well, "there can be only one," so the other lines are then converted to match.

 

[CYBRTRK420]

I created an overview for the timeframes (Product Unveil -> First Deliveries) for the recent Tesla vehicles.

I think Gen 3 will move much quicker.

Tesla has tons of cash to fund development and does not need pre orders anymore.

Can't wait for March 1st.

 

[TN Mtn Man]

Why does everyone (specifically youtubers/analysts) see volume production of the Cybertruck not ramping until '24 as a "big deal"? I would think that was expected. They are just starting production with a radically new design, new production technology, new battery tech and a new facility-hardly a surprise that it will take time to ramp. GM in comparison started building the Hummer EV over a year ago and is still not ramped-having built only around 5000 for the entire year, and it's basically a repackaged P/U with batteries and motors. If Tesla can build 1-5k CTs by the end of the year I read that as a big win.

 

[Artful Dodger]

No, they don't say in the next 12 months, or in 2023. They just say over time, with no bounds:

View attachment 899978

Indeed, Tesla did not state that about FSD revenue recognition. Here's their wording: (text)

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Pg. 6​

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+ FSD revenue recognition of $324M in Automotive Sales 2​

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(2) This pertains to wide release of FSD Beta in the US and Canada during the period. Addionally, we expect to recognize nearly $1 billion of deferred revenue that remains for such customers over time as software updates are delivered.​

So under this policy, Tesla could recognize more FSD revenue when v11 (single stack) goes to wide release, and when FSD Beta is 1st made available in other markets (such as Europe). I find this bullish.

 

[JupiterMan]

a pickup truck that actually fits in the average garage,

what is an average garage?

my model 3 wont even fit in mine!

 

[WattsHappening]

i'd love to see a luxury SUV that doesn't look like an egg on wheels, a pickup truck that actually fits in the average garage, a work van (aka the kind of vehicle most actual workers use), and yes the sub-compact "euro-sized" car currently under development.

the S3XY lineup is too limited in variety for current growth targets, and Tesla has been too slow getting new products to market.

Being battery constrained up until now, adding new products beyond S3XY would have meant higher cost, lower margins, and decrease in focus.

Timing might not have been optimal from a market perspective, but I trust Tesla has been considering all factors.

 

[jerry33]

Why does everyone (specifically youtubers/analysts) see volume production of the Cybertruck not ramping until '24 as a "big deal"? I would think that was expected. They are just starting production with a radically new design, new production technology, new battery tech and a new facility-hardly a surprise that it will take time to ramp. GM in comparison started building the Hummer EV over a year ago and is still not ramped-having built only around 5000 for the entire year, and it's basically a repackaged P/U with batteries and motors. If Tesla can build 1-5k CTs by the end of the year I read that as a big win.

Mainly because they are looking for any negative, or negative spin, to forward their agenda.

 

[cliff harris]

The obvious thing for them to do is to purchase in inferior EV for more money so they don't have to suffer the incredible inconvenience of not having parking sensors for a few months.

I find the sneering attitude on here to concerns about parking sensors shortsighted and extremely patronizing. I am sure a lot of people here think that they are gods gift to driving because they don't find a need for parking sensors. Well done. Now drive a model Y through the side streets in Rome and London for a day, and tell me what your bodywork repair bill amounts to.

Like it or not, countries exist where the roads are not a hundred feet wide like they seem to be in Los Angeles. Also, believe it or not, EVERY other car company on earth making premium vehicles includes parking sensors *because people use them*.
I have a brand new model Y performance, delivered without parking sensors. It is absolutely definitely by a huge margin, the worst thing about the car.
And the replacement tech in a few months? Yup sure, just like FSD will be in a few months?

Its incredibly silly for 'investors' in a company to be willfully blind to a genuine criticism of the product. Its also absolutely TERRIBLE customer service by tesla to remove parking sensors from $90,000 cars with no fixed timeline for feature equivalence. It totally soured my excitement about my new car. For the sake of a few cheap sensors, they harm the image of a $90k car. Bad decision, bad execution.

 

[Ogre]

Feels good to be closer to 200 than 100. Good luck all

We are still closer to zero than the ATH.

 

[GOVA]

My solar has been put on hold unitl 7/23. It has not been cancelled.

As I said yesterday, zero mentions at call worries me a bit. Tesla has been very quiet about solar for a good while now.
Yet, there has been news about Tesla new inverter. I hope they are in restructuring process with installers and all. The Tesla solar fab is still in there, right?

Another possibility I see would be that the production from China is so huge that making solar panels and/or roof is a lost cause indeed.