MartinAustin
Active Member
Speaking of media spinning negative... CNBC is about to feature Tesla, and perform the exact negative spinning you allude to.
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
I don't know what someone who paid for the software was expecting. Especially when I don't see the word "robotaxies" anywhere on the ordering page.
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
While I agree it wasn't part of the order specification we both know where he got that expectation.I don't know what someone who paid for the software was expecting. Especially when I don't see the word "robotaxies" anywhere on the ordering page.
FSD Rant On
There is a huge difference between 1) highly competent L2 FSD beta and 2) an actual robotaxi.
The difference is that an actually robotaxi needs to have an insanely high performance & accuracy, multiple of orders of magnitude better than a great L2 FSD beta.
HW3.0 will likely be able to deliver a highly competent L2 FSD, but it will not be able to deliver a robotaxi.
Why?
It can't see cross traffic well.
The cameras were never in the right position for detecting cross traffic when visibility is constrained.
The cameras don't have high enough resolution to detect high speed cross traffic with a high enough reliability from far enough away to basically never make a mistake.
These reasons alone are enough reason to forgot about thinking HW3.0 will be for robotaxis.
But that's okay.
Tesla will be making HW4.0 vehicles at such a rate that if indeed they get to robotaxi level, they'll be able to deploy hundreds of thousands per month.
Shed a tear for the HW3.0 owner who though they would have their car in the robotaxi fleet, but otherwise who cares?
There is a huge difference between 1) highly competent L2 FSD beta and 2) an actual robotaxi.
The difference is that an actually robotaxi needs to have an insanely high performance & accuracy, multiple of orders of magnitude better than a great L2 FSD beta.
HW3.0 will likely be able to deliver a highly competent L2 FSD, but it will not be able to deliver a robotaxi.
Why?
It can't see cross traffic well.
The cameras were never in the right position for detecting cross traffic when visibility is constrained.
The cameras don't have high enough resolution to detect high speed cross traffic with a high enough reliability from far enough away to basically never make a mistake.
These reasons alone are enough reason to forgot about thinking HW3.0 will be for robotaxis.
But that's okay.
Tesla will be making HW4.0 vehicles at such a rate that if indeed they get to robotaxi level, they'll be able to deploy hundreds of thousands per month.
Shed a tear for the HW3.0 owner who though they would have their car in the robotaxi fleet, but otherwise who cares?
There is a lot of talk about how HW3 cannot be retrofitted to HW4. Elon even said so. But it is not really true. The cost is just higher than Tesla would like. A new FSD computer could be designed that fit current cars. This is not a challenge, and there are enough cars to make it worth it. The hard part is the cameras. Upgraded resolution cameras would also not be that hard, the existing wiring almost certainly could be used. But wiring in new cameras would be substantial labor, probably $1000 job (retail). So if Tesla faces large pressure, the cost could be capped at $3000-$4000 per car. Only cars with FSD would be required to be upgraded. Finally, Tesla could offer an FSD owner to give up the rights to an upgrade in exchange for a licence transfer.
Purporting to be safer than a human has nothing to do with robotaxis, and HW3 will never move beyond a Level 2ADAS.
FSD itself is an OTA update. The recall process is entirely appropriate and is likely the best mechanism people with HW3 + FSD will have to pursue further updates. If OTA updates don’t satisfy it, that could lead to hardware changes mandated — that’s where I could see this going.
FSD itself is an OTA update. The recall process is entirely appropriate and is likely the best mechanism people with HW3 + FSD will have to pursue further updates. If OTA updates don’t satisfy it, that could lead to hardware changes mandated — that’s where I could see this going.
This is the easiest path for everyone IMO. Give people the credit they paid in on a new model. Or a complementary FSD license on a new vehicle.
Let's say this was the option do you sell something less costly to existing customers that have HW3 or is HW4 more valuable as far as FSD pricing?
Tesla is never going to allow a license transfer. They do not want to open that box.
FSDtester#1
Craves Electrolytes
There will never be any hardware changes mandated. Simply because if any pressure is put on Tesla, they can just remove beta from all cars overnight and leave all fsd people with NOA, street light detection and cruise control.
I otherwise agree with your post, but had to chime in to correct this part. There are lots of speed limits above 75 MPH in the US. Much of the western interstate system outside of major cities is 80 MPH. There's even a very small stretch near Austin, TX that's posted 85 MPH.
At a minimum, people paid for full-self driving capability that can operate at a level of safety far in excess of a human. What you’re suggesting would require refunding the extra cost for FSD, which I’m sure many people would love at this point.
philw1776
Member
I did. I asked nicely and did not demand. They replaced my old iPhone 8 with an iPhone 14 PRO. In the spirit of giving I gave them $1,000.
I find it encouraging that even a FUD 'recall' did not affect $TSLA much today. This would have easily dropped the stock <%5 back in late 2022
Jinxed it
I've seen Cadillac TV commercials with the driver with no hands on the wheel and the ad promoting that the car is "hands free driving". The NHTSA's "concern" only applies to one brand.
X Fan
Active Member
been down that road with Tesla....they offered more than $6K less than Carvana & Vroom for my older Model X. Now, if they boost trade-in values along with this offering it would be more relevant.
btw: in any event, I decided to forego the $250 and sit on the sidelines (and now with HW4 coming out I'm glad I did). IMO, they still have overpriced S&X but are offering value deals on the 3 & Y.
btw2: FSD betas that I have purchased for my FL & NC homes are essentially useless right now. Too many interventions are required in the type of roads I drive.
GBleck
Member
Speculative investments carry risk including the delay of implementation from expected timetables.
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
Clearly I do not know what I am talking about. Carry on!
Don't be so hard on yourself! You picked the intraday high to within 4 minutes and just a few pennies:
What you did miss is that MMs are boss, and there's a huge number of IMO Calls at $200. They aren't gonna hold the bag; that's for their customers.
#ThursdayAsUsual
FSDtester#1
Craves Electrolytes
Not exactly, I am suggesting that Tesla isn't going to be pushed around by regulating bodies or courts and if they have to pull the plug on beta, they will. All other features of fsd can remain and the website never promised level 3 or higher, so liability probably isn't their main concern. So, take away beta and problem fixed. I hope this doesn't happen, buy it is a possible outcome.
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
In the end you were correct, it just took a winding path.
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