Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[bkp_duke]

There is a lot of talk about how HW3 cannot be retrofitted to HW4. Elon even said so. But it is not really true. The cost is just higher than Tesla would like. A new FSD computer could be designed that fit current cars. This is not a challenge, and there are enough cars to make it worth it. The hard part is the cameras. Upgraded resolution cameras would also not be that hard, the existing wiring almost certainly could be used. But wiring in new cameras would be substantial labor, probably $1000 job (retail). So if Tesla faces large pressure, the cost could be capped at $3000-$4000 per car. Only cars with FSD would be required to be upgraded. Finally, Tesla could offer an FSD owner to give up the rights to an upgrade in exchange for a licence transfer.

HW4 we have seen now, it has different inputs than HW3 (more camera inputs). Tesla would have to specifically build and test a version, AND program FSD differently, for the different HW revision.

Tesla, historically, doesn't do this. If you get stuck on orphaned hardware and software, they will continue to support it as best as possible, but eventually it is legacy, and not supported, and not getting upgraded (a la AP 1.0).

 

[Zero CO2]

here is the appropriate headline that should be gleaned from the NHTSA recall

" Tesla confirms it has 362,758 vehicles that are about to be awakened as robotaxi's"

 

[bkp_duke]

​

Texas Speed Limit - Rural Freeways​

SPEED LIMIT​

85​

Yes, and ironically, the TX HP enforces that pretty close to that limit. You go 90, they will pull you over.

 

[2daMoon]

Was just about to say, when the "competition" looks like this and is becoming more and more bloated and disconnected from the driving feel, it can't be that hard to surpass them

 

[Singuy]

I am not sure why there's a recall on the performance of the adas system when it's L2. The only recall that should happen needs to relate to the disengagement system. If the system has problem being disabled, then a recall should be in the works to remedy that problem. There shouldn't be any performance related recalls until its a L4+ system.

I am thinking Tesla voluntarily did a recall just because here as stated in the notes. If adas performance related recall becomes a thing, then all current L2 systems on the market will need to be recalled.

 

[Beltsbear]

HW4 we have seen now, it has different inputs than HW3 (more camera inputs). Tesla would have to specifically build and test a version, AND program FSD differently, for the different HW revision.

Tesla, historically, doesn't do this. If you get stuck on orphaned hardware and software, they will continue to support it as best as possible, but eventually it is legacy, and not supported, and not getting upgraded (a la AP 1.0).

No. the new one is in a new form factor, but does not have to be. Most connections are the same config, just more. The hard part again is wiring new cameras. Hardware could indeed be FULLY compatible.

 

[bkp_duke]

Not exactly, I am suggesting that Tesla isn't going to be pushed around by regulating bodies or courts and if they have to pull the plug on beta, they will. All other features of fsd can remain and the website never promised level 3 or higher, so liability probably isn't their main concern. So, take away beta and problem fixed. I hope this doesn't happen, buy it is a possible outcome.

Tesla's ace in the hole here is that if regulatory bodies look like they are going to penalize Tesla excessively in one country, they will deploy FSD first elsewhere to put pressure on them. It's not their preference, but they will do this if necessary just to call US Gov's regulatory bluff. Do you know how much of a slap in the face it would be to see FSD cars marching around China or Europe, but not the USA?

NHTSA is flexing on this, and they found a legit bone to pick, but they aren't going to have Tesla pull FSD.




Also, lots of people here are assuming HW4 is needed for L3+. Remember, that Tesla is using the HW3 computer for a lot of stuff not directly related to the driving aspect. Like lots of "pre calculations" to work the data over better before it is uploaded to Tesla for DOJO/Supercomputer training. What if HW4 is initially to expand those "on board calculations". I.e. use the supercomputing fleet already deployed. Once a mature version is out, those calculations can be scaled back and the actual driving algos have much more processing power at their disposal.

 

[bkp_duke]

No. the new one is in a new form factor, but does not have to be. Most connections are the same config, just more. The hard part again is wiring new cameras. Hardware could indeed be FULLY compatible.

no No NO

You COMPLETELY change what is known as the "vector space" for training when you change the number and positioning of the cameras. It would be a completely different "training set" for the cars to learn on compared to "full" HW4 cars.

Tesla is not going to do a "gimped" HW4 version for retrofitting. And if you have actually read the legalease with with the EULA is written, and the sales agreements, they don't have to.

 

[Dutchie]

Tesla offering $5k if you trade in S/X with unlimited supercharging

https://twitter.com/x/status/1626283798936551427

This is just the beginning. Extremely bullish sign. How many cars are out there with unlimited free supercharging and FSD Beta? Once Robotaxi is deployed these cars will be money making machines for the owners and will cost tons for Tesla. They want to get the out of the field before Robotaxi is implemented. They are starting now. Robotaxi imminent.

 

[Zero CO2]

anyone else suspicious of the timing of this NHTSA recall day after Tesla agrees to open supercharger network to competition .... ?

 

[Rammstein]

Speculative investments carry risk including the delay of implementation from expected timetables.

I’m ok with the delay. I just expect my car to eventually be able to be part of a robotaxi newtwork which Elon said would be possible.

 

[bkp_duke]

I’m ok with the delay. I just expect my car to eventually be able to be part of a robotaxi newtwork which Elon said would be possible.

You should have gotten that in writing.

 

[Ogre]

While I think all of the legacy automakers are going to struggle to survive, I think Ford with Farley at the helm has a better chance than most.

The big problem he has is there is so much baggage associated with the brand and they started their transition so late. That said, I think starting late and doing it correctly is better than starting early with an incompetent team (GM).

Farley seems to see where the industry is going and what many of their challenges are. Whether he can take the parts he has and correct course in time is a giant question mark.

Source barrons article tweeted here.

 

[Zero CO2]

I’m ok with the delay. I just expect my car to eventually be able to be part of a robotaxi newtwork which Elon said would be possible.

I never had any expectation of my vehicle being a robotaxi .... where was that ever promised here is the description from order page

"The currently enabled features require active driver supervision and do not make the vehicle autonomous. The activation and use of these features are dependent on achieving reliability far in excess of human drivers as demonstrated by billions of miles of experience, as well as regulatory approval, which may take longer in some jurisdictions. As these self-driving features evolve, your car will be continuously upgraded through over-the-air software updates."

 

[Prunesquallor]

Don't be so hard on yourself! You picked the intraday high to within 4 minutes and just a few pennies:

View attachment 907981

What you did miss is that MMs are boss, and there's a huge number of IMO Calls at $200. They aren't gonna hold the bag; that's for their customers.

#ThursdayAsUsual

Serious question. DO THEY NEVER LEARN?

 

[MC3OZ]

Shed a tear for the HW3.0 owner who though they would have their car in the robotaxi fleet, but otherwise who cares?

Hey that is me, but I mostly want the car to drive me around.

I think it is true that a regulator will approve HW 4..0 for RoboTaxis well before HW 3.0.

If HW 4,0 isn't approved, the debate is academic.

If HW 4,0 is approved there are 3 scenarios:-

1. HW 3.0 is eventually approved with no upgrades.
2. HW 3,0 is approved, but only after some hardware upgrades.
3. HW 3.0 is never approved.

I rank these in the following order post probable 2., followed by 1. with 3. being unlikely.

The reason 3. is unlikely is because in this scenario Tesla is going all in of HW 3.0 upgrades to make it work.

What are the upgrades that could be done?

1. I think the new high definition radar could be input into HW3 where the old radar used to go, Even if there is pre-processing hardware that cleans the image up, and presents it at the right density.

2. I think an addition front facing camera could be added near the rear facing repeater camera on both the left an right side and specialist hardware could stitch the 2 cameras into a combined left / right side wide view. There is a blind spot in the wide view, but that is covered by the b-pillar cameras.

3. The camera that are most often impacted by glare are front facing and b-pillar, these new front facing cameras provide some redundancy in the case of front cameras being affected. But there may be some upgrade to the b-pillar camera needed to make it more glare resistant?

Tesla might have other options, a limited production run of a board to upgrade HW 3.0 is possible.

Free FSD on the purchase of a new Tesla for existing HW 3.0 FSD owners is possible, but IMO unlikely to be needed.

There are good reasons why Tesla doesn't want to talk about upgrading HW 3.0 now, Mostly because they are hoping no upgrades are needed. But also because of they do need to do upgrades they need to optimise that process for minimum cost, and fastest possible install, and they need to test it out well before deploying.

Not much point in seriously considering HW 3.0 upgrades until HW 4.0 has regulatory approval. But a lot of merit in testing, evaluating and optimising various upgrade options.

 

[2daMoon]

I've always wondered about the liability of programming a vehicle to break existing laws. For now it's the driver responsibility but when FSD is fully realized what happens then?

FWIW, speed limits are not "laws" beyond the statute usually saying a driver should maintain "a reasonable and prudent speed for the conditions" or something along those lines. To write it any other way would violate the constitution.

Therefore, a person's (non-commercial) vehicle being programmed to exceed the posted limit is not breaking any law. (though, as a Robotaxi for hire, it would be liable as a commercial vehicle)

Spoiler: Legal Mumbo Jumbo

Check the statutes for your state and look for a punishment clause in the chapter for the speed limit, and look at the verbiage for the sign. There likely won't be a punishment clause. If there is, some weasel words will lead to it not being applicable except for commercial vehicles or "extraordinary use of the highway" is another way to describe it. Driving a private vehicle for personal use is not extraordinary.

The speed limit signs are usually defined in law as "prima facie" evidence of a "reasonable and prudent" speed.

The court system is set up to bring a charge of damages against the "peace and dignity of the state" (or something like that).

What most people do not realize is that the "state" is a body politic, of which the person is a member, so, when you pay a fine you are accepting that you caused damage to yourself, brought charges against yourself and punished yourself. Seems rather Masochistic to me.

An affidavit filed in a court of record stating you were driving a reasonable and prudent speed will shift the burden of proof to the prosecutor to demonstrate the nature of the damages. (or, you can have the case dismissed in arraignment by denying the existence of the "state" named as the plaintiff. A body politic is not a "legal person" and has no standing in a court of law.)

So, there are no "laws" regarding speeds on highways, except for commercial vehicles and other "extraordinary" uses of the highway.

Stop signs are the same. Driver License too (except for commercial license). Look for the punishment clauses in the statutes. That is the proof in the pudding. No punishment clause, no teeth, part of the ticket/fines scam.

I have tested this in court successfully several times. It is a pain to do so and simpler to pay the fine, but, knowing the nature of the scam being perpetrated, it is hard for me not to.

 

[Curt Renz]

He had an excellent response to the "danger" of automated driving technology.

And it should be noted that the NHTSA, which requested the "recall", is an agency within Buttigieg's Tranportation Department.

 

[Webeevdrivers]

anyone else suspicious of the timing of this NHTSA recall day after Tesla agrees to open supercharger network to competition .... ?

Walk me thru it. What’s the connection?

 

[Webeevdrivers]

So, I kind of get the impression this recall OTA update is ready to go. If they managed to get a fix that fast to this never ending wrong lane intersection thing why wouldn’t they just have done it. Or is there some kind of time limit or else sceenario here?

Weird.