Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[GhostSkater]

This much is true. I appreciate @unk45 ’s reminders for those of us in the USA to look beyond our national borders but this is the economic reality.

All of Latin America combined, including Mexico itself, buys a bit less than 6 million new light duty vehicles per year.

For comparison, the USA and Canada combined for 15 million last year, and that’s in a down year for sales volume.

Latin America mostly imports used vehicles from wealthier markets. The continued economic growth in Latin America and the improved overall affordability of low-cost Teslas will open up new opportunities for buyers to purchase new cars, but the market still isn’t very large relative to the scale of Tesla’s ambitions for Giga Mexico.

The reason we focus on markets in USA/Canada, Western Europe, China, Japan, and Australia/NZ is that this is where the vast majority of new cars are sold.

Not Brazil

We can only import brand new vehicles or ones with 30 years old or more (there is a few rare exceptions, but so small it doesn’t matter)

 

[Captkerosene]

Another underappreciated nuggy from ID2023: Neural net training to increase by an order of magnitude this year and maybe next.

Amazon Web Services is worth 1T. Seems like Tesla is angling to be the AWS of real world AI training. We have the lead in this space with FSD and Optimus is opening up all sorts of new capabilities. Think how many robots will need to be trained in real world AI going forward. Not just our robots but everything imaginable that somebody will build a specialized robot for. Analysts need to start penciling in a big valuation number for DOJO.

This is not an area I know much about. We all knew a little bit about this before ... but a 100X increase in NN training over the next two years? It seems like new information to me (or I just haven't been listening). Is this a new chip design they're keeping secret? Software improvements? Anybody know how they're ramping up so fast?

Is this the answer to getting FSD over the hump?

 

[Artful Dodger]

If I recall correctly Tesla still hasn't drawn on any of the German factory grants. They were conditional on battery manufacture in Berlin. Hard to see when Berlin is actually going to be able to get its hands on any 4680 kit to execute on that.

The problem with the EU battery production grant was that it was contingient upon any supported project being "the first industrial instantiation" of the battery production technology. That means that Tesla would have needed to build 4680s in Berlin BEFORE building them at the mother ship, Giga Texas. Yeah, not gonna happen. Elon told the EU-crats to 'keep ur measly €1.1B, we'll make our own arrangement, fu very much'. So they'll be eating cold noodles in Berlin for some time.

Tesla decides against state aid for German battery plant as Musk opposes subsidies | Reuters | Aug 15, 2022

 

[Rarity]

The Tesla materials group is full of level 99 wizards, so I wonder whether they can also change the color of stainless steel by changing the composition of the steel rather than applying a finish. You can change the color of steel by heating it to a certain temperature, of course. But that's probably not energy efficient enough just for a bit of aesthetic appeal.

 

[EVMeister]

There's too much really. The background looks fake. The shadows look fake. The cord unplug and drill dismount look fake. The part that looks most real to me is the second or three where the shoulder joint is being fastened. I will say that all of my viewing is on a smartphone- so that's my excuse if I'm wrong.

I don't think it looks fake. I think some people are just thrown by the fact they've clearly set up artificial lighting in a very specific way to give a "sci-fi" look. Really wish Elon or Tesla would clarify on Twitter or elsewhere.

 

[SmokyPeat]

That sort of explains everything.

It's a great excuse, right? We're up at my off grid chalet this week. My brilliant gf who outclasses all of us by a wide margin in both intellect and intuition also thinks there's a whole lot of fakery/creative license in the video. Of course, she's also only seen it on a smartphone. Somebody page Karen Rei- then we'll know for sure.

 

[2daMoon]

There's too much really. The background looks fake. The shadows look fake. The cord unplug and drill dismount look fake. The part that looks most real to me is the second or three where the shoulder joint is being fastened. I will say that all of my viewing is on a smartphone- so that's my excuse if I'm wrong.

So, no then?

You can't post a screenshot of something you think is fake.

Right...

Edit: and further, it has been revealed that the Swedes are basing their claims about the Optimus video being determined upon a detailed and exhaustive examination of the presentation... on a cell phone. Will this be an upcoming SNL skit?

 

[Cosmacelf]

I don't think it looks fake. I think some people are just thrown by the fact they've clearly set up artificial lighting in a very specific way to give a "sci-fi" look. Really wish Elon or Tesla would clarify on Twitter or elsewhere.

I imagine they are just laughing at it all.

 

[2daMoon]

This much is true. I appreciate @unk45 ’s reminders for those of us in the USA to look beyond our national borders but this is the economic reality.

All of Latin America combined, including Mexico itself, buys a bit less than 6 million new light-duty vehicles per year.

For comparison, the USA and Canada combined for 15 million last year, and that’s in a down year for sales volume. Mexico buys as many new cars as Canada despite having more than triple the population.

Latin America mostly imports used vehicles from wealthier markets. The continued economic growth in Latin America and the improved overall affordability of low-cost Teslas will open up new opportunities for buyers to purchase new cars, but the market still isn’t very large relative to the scale of Tesla’s ambitions for Giga Mexico.

The focus on markets in USA/Canada, Western Europe, China, Japan, and Australia/NZ is justified because this is where the vast majority of new cars are sold.

Plus, we are living in an amazing world.

One where people who never had internet before can now get it from satellites. Opening the door for entrepreneurs to enter the marketplace.​

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One where people who never had reliable power before can now install solar and batteries.​

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One where cars can be built cheap and also be long lasting with significantly reduced upkeep needed.​

So, who doesn't think that traditionally impoverished parts of the planet are not going to be joining in the growth and expansion that the transition to renewable energy and all the associated benefits will bring to everyone?

 

[Artful Dodger]

It will very challenging to produce 5m cars by 2025 l

That's probably because the goal for 2025 is 4m cars, not 5m. Have you even done the exponential growth projection?

 

[MC3OZ]

Exactly, Tesla is NOT going to make 18m/cars/yr from aluminum, in a country that has no aluminum. And Tesla is ALSO not likely to make 680M+ million cars total from Aluminum through the run of Master Plan 3 (2040s?).

I live near the sea, there is a lot of salt in the air here things rust fast.

Most houses have a metal roof, but not many have painted roofs, none are stainless steel. Most are unpainted metal and last 30-40 years.

There is a option called "ColourBond" where roofing metal is available in a limited range of colors.

Unpainted metal roofs could be painted, and at least in theory could be wrapped.

There is a lot of metal in one of those roofs also in very large farm sheds and water tanks which are made of the same stuff.

 

[electracity]

This much is true. I appreciate @unk45 ’s reminders for those of us in the USA to look beyond our national borders but this is the economic reality.

All of Latin America combined, including Mexico itself, buys a bit less than 6 million new light-duty vehicles per year.

For comparison, the USA and Canada combined for 15 million last year, and that’s in a down year for sales volume. Mexico buys as many new cars as Canada despite having more than triple the population.

Latin America mostly imports used vehicles from wealthier markets. The continued economic growth in Latin America and the improved overall affordability of low-cost Teslas will open up new opportunities for buyers to purchase new cars, but the market still isn’t very large relative to the scale of Tesla’s ambitions for Giga Mexico.

The focus on markets in USA/Canada, Western Europe, China, Japan, and Australia/NZ is justified because this is where the vast majority of new cars are sold.

That's not an explanation South America of handling the total volume Tesla sold worldwide in 2020. Its a bit of googling

 

[NicoV]

An anecdotal example of how company car policies change because of changing tax regulations: The company my son works for now only has EV’s on their 2023 company car list. No ICE (nor hybrid) anymore, the tax implications of those got too expensive.
So the employees with company car leases expiring this year have to make a very hard decision: choose a Tesla (2 to 4 weeks delivery time), or a car from some other brand with less range and features for the same lease budget and a delivery time of 6 months to a year or more.

 

[Ogre]

You are a very special internet person.

You have been repeatedly insulting to people who have not insulted you.

Now explain how a continent that buys four million new cars a year at an average ASP under $25K can absorb the output of the new factory.

You have repeatedly propped up this strawman argument. Which has been repeatedly rejected.

If you cannot have a discussion without resorting to trolling techniques, move on.

 

[SmokyPeat]

Well, its from Roto-REUTERS so we know its a rumor (that's all they publish). But, buyout or delivery contract, Tesla will source addtional lithium in the Americas. We know that because of newly announced production plans. The Lithium refinery in Corpus Christi is another sure sign at 50 GWh/yr capacity. That likely goes to Giga Texas for Cybertruck, but they need a source of spodumene as feed stock for the refinery. If not Brazil, then we haven't heard of some other large new mining project.

We've got a sizeable deposit of very rich spodumene right here in Maine. We just need to convince the powers that be that harvesting it is more akin to a granite quarry than a cobalt mine.

 

[FSDtester#1]

I guess my assumption is that if you needed seating for 5, limiting yourself to the 7-seater Y that has a 3rd row of seats that take up storage space, even if folded away , seems at odds with your needs...

Just from experience the more space between backseat kids equals the less I have to turn around and say "knock it off, or do I have to pull over?"

 

[Artful Dodger]

What about the legal point Dr Know It All made?

No one here saw, or read, or believed the FORWARD LOOKING STATEMENTS disclosure that was the VERY FIRST part of the Investor Day presentation? Obviously, Optimus is not yet building Optimus. That's what the humans are paid for, it's called R&D. Tesla is showing capabilities they intend to build in the future with this R&D effort. There is no fraud, this is a FORWARD LOOKING STATEMENT of Tesla's intent with this program. That's important information for investors. The End.

 

[Stretch2727]

Timely article based on all the South America discussion this weekend. Good chart of the number of vehicles sold in all of the americas as well.

Costa Rica Reached Highest EV Market Share In The Americas In 2022 - CleanTechnica

In 2022, Costa Rica managed to maintain its leadership within the Latin American region in terms of penetration of the segment of 100% ev

cleantechnica.com

 

[Artful Dodger]

We've got a sizeable deposit of very rich spodumene right here in Maine. We just need to convince the powers that be that harvesting it is more akin to a granite quarry than a cobalt mine.

I love Maine. I ordered a steak sandwich for lunch there once at a road-side diner. Best pair of boots I ever owned (lasted for years).

Cheers!

 

[Thekiwi]

This much is true. I appreciate @unk45 ’s reminders for those of us in the USA to look beyond our national borders but this is the economic reality.

All of Latin America combined, including Mexico itself, buys a bit less than 6 million new light-duty vehicles per year.

For comparison, the USA and Canada combined for 15 million last year, and that’s in a down year for sales volume. Mexico buys as many new cars as Canada despite having more than triple the population.

Latin America mostly imports used vehicles from wealthier markets. The continued economic growth in Latin America and the improved overall affordability of low-cost Teslas will open up new opportunities for buyers to purchase new cars, but the market still isn’t very large relative to the scale of Tesla’s ambitions for Giga Mexico.

The focus on markets in USA/Canada, Western Europe, China, Japan, and Australia/NZ is justified because this is where the vast majority of new cars are sold.

Although for context Aus/NZ combined only have ~1m in new passenger vehicle sales each year, so South America is 6x the size of that market, albeit with a lower ASP.

==========

I do think budget EVs will have a larger impact on the used car market than a similarly priced ICE car has, given the savings in running an EV vs ICE, and that there is widespread pent up demand for a ~$25k tesla globally that will take many years to fulfill. Many people who currently only buy used cars will instead opt for a new EV once we get to that price point (eg the average USED car price in the USA is ~$30K), so I think even if its a temporary decade long period, that the annual global new car market will swell much bigger as we near decade end as the transition from ICE to EVs takes place.