I watched that clip a few times. What stood out to me aside from the incredibly bold claim; was the nonverbal…both Zach and Drew let some smug smiles creep out when those comments were made.
Chairs may well be under-appreciated.
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
Chairs may well be under-appreciated.
Well, AI hardware is heating up. Due to Nvidia clients making ASICS, they are now adding more and more specific AI accelerators into their training hardware in which under specific work load they are claiming 7x-9x faster training vs their last generation A100. So even if Tesla buys the same amount and clone their A100 cluster, it should in theory be an order of magnitude faster. However those are claims so who knows in the real world.
If Tesla is make to make 20M vehicles by 2030 and the total size of the global market remains 80M Tesla is aiming for 25% of the global market.
On the fuel savings, at our household 2 EVs $30 per week in electricity replacing $120 per week in petrol.
Hard to say exactly how the fuel savings would pan out in LatAm, but $30 per week, 1,500 per year, 15,000 over 10 years.
Buying an EV for around price parity with an ICE should be attractive, because the fuel and maintenance savings are significant.
Once an EV is the best option, the next question is who has affordable EVs available in volume,
A factory in Brazil needs to be compared to the cost of shipping cars from Mexico. The Monterrey factory could be upgraded to higher production volumes, or anther factory built in Mexico.
Riddle me this:
The CEO proclaims demand for Tesla vehicles is excellent, if not "unlimited". Then a few days later cuts prices both in Europe and USA.
Meanwhile @Troy has been more accurate than everyone on this forum in his tracking of "demand issues" and indicates there are still demand issues in China.
With all these cuts, it seems more likely than not Q1 earnings will be quite low. $0.86 EPS is the current mean estimate (already down QoQ). Will it end up below that?
As you are aware, companies valued on the assumption of high growth get pounded if that growth doesn't show up.
Tesla might need a Megapack miracle to avoid dropping back below $150.
I'd love for that not to happen, so please convince me otherwise.
The CEO proclaims demand for Tesla vehicles is excellent, if not "unlimited". Then a few days later cuts prices both in Europe and USA.
Meanwhile @Troy has been more accurate than everyone on this forum in his tracking of "demand issues" and indicates there are still demand issues in China.
With all these cuts, it seems more likely than not Q1 earnings will be quite low. $0.86 EPS is the current mean estimate (already down QoQ). Will it end up below that?
As you are aware, companies valued on the assumption of high growth get pounded if that growth doesn't show up.
Tesla might need a Megapack miracle to avoid dropping back below $150.
I'd love for that not to happen, so please convince me otherwise.
Model S/X is less than 5% of total revenue...
3/Y we’re discounted across Europe too, I’m going to sound like a broken record but all of this is readily apparent through watching inventory trends.
Elon didn’t say demand is unlimited though, he said price is the limiting factor.
Can't convince a care bear. Good thing you only have 5 posts so I didn't have to reach much to know one when I see one.
The last bit of that quote from Elon should read "I'm not sure the scale of that has quite dawned on people. It's enormous".
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I don't think you have to worry about that.
Gigapress
Trying to be less wrong
The CEO was pretty clear that demand is very sensitive to price and that Tesla cars are out of reach of most of those who desire them.
Will earnings be the same as Q4 ‘21 when deliveries were 309k and average revenue per car was $50.7k and Energy gross margin was -7.4%? Really?
By the way the historical record shows those mean estimates for the current quarter tend to be about 20-30% too low on average.
S&X are still priced far beyond where they were a few years ago, and they’re a negligible fraction of the business now. If average S&X price this quarter goes down $7k then across 22k sold that’d only drop gross profit by $154M or about $0.04/share. Who cares?
You must mean Q1 2022 when EPS was $0.95. Q4 2021 EPS was $0.68
Yeah...aren't estimates for ASP now going under $50k? And COGs are higher (and Zach indicated they will stay higher this year).
So yeah, earnings from automotive are going down. There isn't enough volume growth to cover that up.
Tesla is barely making money on their Chinese sold vehicles now.
You can isolate every subset and argue it's peanuts, but in aggregate it means poor earnings and definitely poor earnings growth, which is the foundation that Tesla stock is valued on.
Since January 11th
Model S AWD has dropped $15k from $104,990 to $89,990
Model S Plaid has dropped $26k from $135,990 to $109,990
Model X AWD has dropped $21k from $120,990 to $99,990
Model X Plaid has dropped $29k from $138,990 to $109,990
Think I got all the math correct there
Model S AWD has dropped $15k from $104,990 to $89,990
Model S Plaid has dropped $26k from $135,990 to $109,990
Model X AWD has dropped $21k from $120,990 to $99,990
Model X Plaid has dropped $29k from $138,990 to $109,990
Think I got all the math correct there
Full body wraps are expensive, due to the amount of labor involved, and frankly a really big mark-up/margin. But Tesla is rethinking how vehicles are built, we need to rethink how they are decorated. A "wrap" doesn't have to be a full body wrap, it can be a stripe kit or area graphics, something that only covers a portion of the SS surface. Should require a lot less labor to install, be cheaper to produce (simply due to being a smaller area) and still allow an owner to personalize their car.
dhanson865
Well-Known Member
Saw this on the webs and couldn't help but share it. Nothing earth shattering, just a tiny data tidbit.
www.carbonbrief.org
Analysis: UK emissions fall 3.4% in 2022 as coal use drops to lowest level since 1757 - Carbon Brief
The UK’s greenhouse gas emissions fell by 3.4% in 2022, according to new Carbon Brief analysis, ending a post-Covid rebound.
www.carbonbrief.org
Thank you for your care-bear warning. But we're good.
If you believe your thesis, you should sell now and either find a better investment or wait until the market 'fairly prices' TSLA at whatever number you think is appropriate and buy back then. Good luck with that.
Best thing about this is, you don't have to waste your valuable time worrying about the stock price and posting questions here asking for reassurances (which, when provided, you ignore anyway).
Sure, anything can happen, and already has.
So if the CEO is just making stuff up to fool us, while pumping $10 billion into a new factory when he is already ramping two that are looking about to prove themselves with sufficient demand…
Don’t bet against Musk
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Gigapress
Trying to be less wrong
Tesla showed an image on Investor Day indicating that they were switching to a hairpin motor design, but I just now remembered that this isn't actually isn't news. In fact, this has been public info for over a year and Tesla has been making hairpin motors in Shanghai since at least 2021 if not earlier.
Remember 12/9? Yes, that's right, 12/9.
The short "Go Giga" teaser video released on 12/8/2021 featured the hairpin motor.
Hairpin Formation:
Automated hairpin assembly part 1
Automated assembly part 2
Opposite end view of hairpin insertion machine. Clip shows the housing rotating counterclockwise about 5 degrees at a time with the same kind of motion seen in the clip of the actual hairpin insertion.
Remember 12/9? Yes, that's right, 12/9.
The short "Go Giga" teaser video released on 12/8/2021 featured the hairpin motor.
Hairpin Formation:
Automated hairpin assembly part 1
Automated assembly part 2
Opposite end view of hairpin insertion machine. Clip shows the housing rotating counterclockwise about 5 degrees at a time with the same kind of motion seen in the clip of the actual hairpin insertion.
Buckminster
Well-Known Member
Much more H/W info posted on Omar's Twitter including camera views and possible cameras in front vent.
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