Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[petit_bateau]

I think @avoigt makes two interrelated points:

1. Next Gen vehicles will be produced at Berlin, inside the existing buildings, and
2. no extra water supply will be required to produce Next Gen
   1. this likely means no additional paint shop (the water hog)
   2. a.k.a. the Next Gen vehicle will NOT have conventional a paint finish

Alex on Twitter: "As many are beginning to speculate that no new water demand indicates that Tesla will already begin production of the next gen vehicle in Berlin, we should remember that it has been confirmed that Giga Mexico will be the first site for the production of the new vehicle. The…" / Twitter

There is more than one possibility, including,

1) the existing paintshop (etc) water use (after recycling) is so low for the current phase's 0.5m that they can double to 1.0m; and/or
2) the next 0.5m will not have a paintshop; and/or
3) the next 0.5m will also rely on imported batteries (so likely LFP); and/or
4) the next 0.5m will have their batteries made in Berlin but there will be trivial water usage anywhere in the process (not even any cooling losses); and/or
5) something else.

 

[lafrisbee]

Have you all seen the renders of the 2026 VW ID2all ? Whoa, that's awesum, wot?. Who would even consider buying a Golf or a Polo now? And certainly not an ID3. I think ID 2all stands for Ásbjörn.

View attachment 918125

How can VW management be so obtuse? Of course, the existing generation of VW elektroautos is instantly less desirable, and the consumer has a firm future date in mind before which they will NOT be buying an ID3 (or Golf, or Polo). This comes shortly after VW announced the cancellation of plans to make a new EV battery factory in Germany, and will produce this new car in Spain. And Senior Management wants to continue making gascars beyond 2035...

Unmöglich.

I did NOT down vote your post but I feel as though this is an across the board strategy that all the OEM's have at this time which is NOT going to Osborne their sales as much as it is done to stop people from buying Teslas.
GM and Ford are definitely doing this too. They have ads that show their customers that are considering an electric vehicle to wait a couple of years and don't buy a Kia or Tesla, Buy the brand you have been loyal to.

That strategy dovetails neatly in with Tesla people stating that the competition now isn't amongst EV Makers. It is between EV and ICE makers. The ICE producers are just trying to keep their loyal customers.

Many ICE customers still don't even look at a car as soon as they see it is an EV because of all the FUD about EVs.
While some VW car buyers will now hold off buying the current ICE VW models due to this ad, the Advertising/research team at ICE companies have done the work to know they will be stopping many more loyal customers that are conscious of the truth about EVs from leaving the brand if they just wait for 2 more years.

This has been part of ICE OEM's strategy for years. GM never believed it could ramp up their EV side as fast as they have told the world. They said that simply to stop their loyal base from leaving them. it is sort of the Elon strategy of "two weeks", but in years.

And as a much smaller strategy ALL the advertising by the ICE OEMs is done to start getting the public to believe that ICE OEMs have been selling EV's for several years when those EVs become available. That will make the customer feel comfortable buying from a car manufacturer that has been producing EVs for the last 5 years. In their minds they will go, "I saw an EV ad by GM back when Brady won the Super Bowl. GM has it figured out."

 

[Featsbeyond50]

Industry related-Proterra (EV bus maker) down 45% today and survival is questionable. This after hundreds of millions of dollars of taxpayer funds in orders.

It'll be sad if Proterra goes down. In early 2020 they made me a lot of Tesla shares.

At that time I was "churning" (my word) a bunch of stocks with about 20 grand and profits going into TSLA. I made boatloads on Proterra, GBTC, SQ, LMND, that lithium miner Sara's Dad recommended right before they popped. I was an amazing trader during that little era of opportunity.

 

[lafrisbee]

Can't we just pass Go and collect $200 adjusted for inflation

We can do whatever you want, but first, "I CALL THE CAR/TESLA!"

 

[Rarity]

I think @avoigt makes two interrelated points:

1. Next Gen vehicles will be produced at Berlin, inside the existing buildings, and
2. no extra water supply will be required to produce Next Gen
   1. this likely means no additional paint shop (the water hog)
   2. a.k.a. the Next Gen vehicle will NOT have conventional a paint finish

Alex on Twitter: "As many are beginning to speculate that no new water demand indicates that Tesla will already begin production of the next gen vehicle in Berlin, we should remember that it has been confirmed that Giga Mexico will be the first site for the production of the new vehicle. The…" / Twitter

The timeline on the Next Gen vehicle doesn't seem to match up with added production in the existing building, but matches quite nicely with construction of a second main building on the recently-cleared area. The existing building has a stamping extension that will come on line probably around the Summer. Is that needed for 500k? Or will that bring us to 1 million in the existing building?

I can imagine that the Next Gen vehicle will be painted, but more sparingly than the current MY. That fits with what we have been told about painting "only what's needed." But I think that we've known for a while that there are no real water problems at Berlin. Or at least nothing that on-site infrastructure can't solve.

 

[kclifton]

All of the cars sitting either are the touring or the grand touring. They are just starting to make the pure as you can tell by the solid roof. Did your dad's friend order the touring or the pure?

Btw per Lucid call they did not state supply chain being an issue. Last I heard was logistics.

His is a Grand Touring. I tried to convince him into a Plaid but he liked the interior better in the Lucid.

 

[Cosmacelf]

It sure looks like the only sure way to make money at the moment is to short the ruble, agree? Is there a play that can be done the ruble vs $tsla?

There’s another thread in this section about other stocks to invest in. It is labeled “tech stocks” but really anything goes in that thread.

What other tech stock to consider?

Hello all, Is anybody following other stories similar to TSLA - hot tech companies that just crossed the chasm and ready for a huge growth? I just started looking at iRobot and it looks like they had a nice growth in the last 6 month...maybe there are some more interesting companies to consider?

teslamotorsclub.com

 

[hobbes]

It is confusing to me what they actually submitted. Alex seems to indicate that the main factory building that already exists will be outputting 1 million vehicles, but the language used isn't clear.

This seems high, given the size difference with Austin. That is, unless Austin has the potential for crazy high output.

I found it a bit confusing, too. Here is Alex´s source: Tesla stellt Erweiterungsantrag für Werk in Grünheide

It says

As a spokesman for the LfU announced, Tesla has applied for an increase in production capacity from the current 500,000 vehicles per year to one million vehicles per year in the future. The production facilities required for this are to be built on the existing factory premises. However, the mark of 500,000 cars per year has not yet been reached.

All depends on the exact meaning of factory premises (Werksgelände in the original German text). New production lines in existing buildings? New buildings on the currently used site? Tesla´s comment of "the application for partial approval that has now been submitted to the responsible State Office for the Environment (LfU) primarily relates to changes to the existing plant." However, "primarily" even leaves the possibility of some construction outside on the expansion site just recently cleared of trees.

Could also be a move to speed up permitting, first getting the permit to produce 1M cars and only later applying for construction permits for the expansion on the site east of the current factory recently cleared of trees. They did something like this with getting a permission for a warehouse and only later turning it into a building for cell production.

 

[betstarship]

I keep listening to Bloomberg interviews over the past months (as the rates increase) and continue to hear the same line repeated by multiple heads of investment research and capital at large financial institutions:

"We are in a managed transition from fossil fuels to clean energy".

So, in essence, with so many uninitiated in the climate transition worldwide, wouldn't it feel intuitively like the world is turning over? Then, FUD and panic ensue?

 

[Ogre]

Th

Tesla (TSLA) Q3 2022 Earnings Call Transcript | The Motley Fool

…That vertical integration means after Tesla brings in-house additional cell components, which will be manufactured at new Tesla facilities now under construction:

… Item #3 may be required by 2026 to achieve the $70/KWh price target for cells. I estimate that Tesla pays 20% extra for outsourced materials, so they may be able to achieve ~$85/KWh in the next year as items #1+2 are achieved.

TL;dr Tesla will produce CT in limited quantities this year, then begin ramping in 2024 with an $80K IRA-eligible CT produced in volume.

All excellent points. I wasn’t quite sure what they meant by fully integrated.

Mostly my comment was pointed at some earlier posts suggesting there was no chance the 500 mile Cybertruck would need to be more than $100k for Tesla to break even. Given Tesla’s efforts here + IRA, it’s pretty clear that will not be necessary.

Timing may be a littie optimistic, but keep in mind those are only two subsets of the manufacturing incentives. They also get 10% off critical mineral production and 10% off electrode active material costs (and it looks like those are stackable for up to 19% savings).

Another good point here. Though it’s possible sellers will soak up some of this with premium pricing for this same reason.

 

[Ogre]

This interior - I can't quite put my finger on it, but I think I've seen it before.

Exactly the thought I had when I saw it.

If it wasn’t for all those VW Logos splashed over the inside you could mistake it for a Tesla.

 

[jabloomf1230]

Speaking of German cars and user interfaces, BMW is phasing out its iDrive knob and dial mess:

BMW Doesn't Want You To Use The iDrive Knob Anymore - The Autopian

After 20 years of iDrive knob twiddling, BMW is now focusing on touchscreens first. The end of an era feels nigh.

www.theautopian.com

Some have compared the complicated iDrive UI to cilantro. To some it tastes great. To others it tastes like soap.

 

[TN Mtn Man]

It'll be sad if Proterra goes down. In early 2020 they made me a lot of Tesla shares.

At that time I was "churning" (my word) a bunch of stocks with about 20 grand and profits going into TSLA. I made boatloads on Proterra, GBTC, SQ, LMND, that lithium miner Sara's Dad recommended right before they popped. I was an amazing trader during that little era of opportunity.

I hope they survive and thrive. Good to see a US EV bus maker-hate to see all that go to BYD. Doesn't seem to be an issue with orders, they have a good backlog. Maybe something for Elon to buy with his pocket change and fix? I mean, the man needs something to do in his spare time.

 

[FreqFlyer]

Industry related-Proterra (EV bus maker) down 45% today and survival is questionable. This after hundreds of millions of dollars of taxpayer funds in orders.

What? They have received many orders and are on their gen 2 product. Wow!

 

[FreqFlyer]

The shakeout is happening.

PTRA Stock Alert: Is Proterra on the Brink of Collapse?

Proterra (PTRA) stock is a hot topic among traders on Thursday after warning investors about the state of its business in a conference call.

investorplace.com

The EV startup boom is over. Companies are now trying to avoid a bust.

Many EV startups are struggling to pay their bills. They are contending with higher costs, government probes, lawsuits, C-suite turnover and investor burnout in a high-interest-rate environment. For many, the EV startup boom is turning into a bummer.

www.autonews.com

The legacy automakers will be picking over the carcasses.

 

[FreqFlyer]

Kudos to Proterra's CEO..............I think..........stating his company was running out cash and not sure of the future.............Most execs would have lied.

With all the orders this company has received, its strange. Austin just put in a major order for their EV buses. BYD must be happy to see their major competitor have financial problems. Maybe MCI will swoop up Proterra.

 

[Krugerrand]

Kudos to Proterra's CEO..............I think..........stating his company was running out cash and not sure of the future.............Most execs would have lied.

With all the orders this company has received, its strange. Austin just put in a major order for their EV buses. BYD must be happy to see their major competitor have financial problems. Maybe MCI will swoop up Proterra.

Wow, can we lower the bar any further? Kudos for not lying?

Nothing strange going on. Typical runaway costs and lack of oversight of said costs.

 

[Krugerrand]

The legacy automakers will be picking over the carcasses.

To do what? Further dismantle the future?

 

[FreqFlyer]

To do what? Further dismantle the future?

Talent and in Proterra's case buy into a market.......................................For cheap.

 

[Curt Renz]

Big political donors drown out consumer choice. The negative comments to this tweet are unanimous.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1635767610561249282