Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Webeevdrivers]

Apologies if this has already been posted (I did a forum search and came up empty).

Tesla reinstates Park Assist distance measurements for cars without ultrasonic sensors (USS) with 2022.45.11

Tesla has finally implemented a vision-based solution to bring back Park Assist distance measurements to cars without ultrasonic sensors (USS). Tesla removed the sensors, and the ability to measure distances to nearby objects, last year. […]

driveteslacanada.ca

According to this article, park assist will be back shortly, and better than USS - 360° measurements would be awesome, IMO. Maybe Tesla wasn't stupid for going 100% Vision after all (though the delay between removing USS and this software development was not cool: in the end, though, it is definitely a #firstworldproblem...)

I've driven for most of my life without fancy parking measurements, and haven't scraped up any of my cars... It's nice, but... I'm also someone that prefers to look backwards rather than rely on rear cameras!

I guess we'll have to wait and see how well this solution works - I'm sure it will not please everyone.

Yay. Now teslas will have the same feature as a 2015 midline Honda Accord. Woohoo. Progress

 

[Krugerrand]

What is Tesla's Mystery Magnet?

The automaker is swearing off rare-earth elements—but experts are doubtful

spectrum.ieee.org

Source - Twitter.

Actually, source was Tesla at most recent Investors Day.

 

[JRP3]

I wonder how many articles we'll see reporting this?

Investigators have now concluded that Autopilot was not involved in the tragic incident.

Tesla Autopilot not active in fatal Model S crash in 2022: report

Considering the investigators' findings, Little noted that the ill-fated Model S was under its driver's control at the time.

www.teslarati.com

 

[Singuy]

BYD factory closure 3 days/week due to rumors being a lack of orders.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1637764631522598914

 

[cliff harris]

I have a possibly oblique take on why google and apple are not going to deliver self driving cars in the real world any time soon.

In my working life, I have swerved from working as a boat/bridge builder, to working on software, and now back to the real world installing solar farms. generally, this is unusual, and there is not *that much* mixing between 'dirty' real world trades and office/software stuff.
People who have spent an entire career in high tech software companies, suffer from a huge delusion. They even love the phrase 'software is eating the world'. They think EVERYTHING can be fixed with an app. Everyone they know is working on an app. Everyone is a developer, everyone codes, everything is software, binary, code, offices, everything nice and sandboxed and clean and predictable.

The real world is chaos. Stuff breaks. Stuff wears out. Stuff is wrong, There is weather. People do dumb things. There are actual physical accidents that hurt people (not mere software bugs).

Tesla UNDERSTANDS this. The CEO used to code, but also has repaired cars, and runs a down-and-dirty practical rocket company too. He understands that no clever-ass technology survives 5 minutes contact with the messiness of the real world. You need that rare gift: Software engineers with experience of actually using products in the physical unpredictable world.

This is why Tesla laughs at geofencing, and mocks boston dynamics scripted set-pieces. These are the solutions of office-types who have never walked on anything but carpet.
Its also why I think Tesla will crush everyone, not just in FSD but real world robotics. It will be slow but rewarding. HODL.

 

[ZeApelido]

Here is some cutting edge journalism from the WSJ. Talk about ahead of the curve….

Elon Musk’s Cost-Cutting Targets at Tesla Pressure EV Rivals

GM, Ford and Volkswagen face questions about efforts to slash costs for future vehicles.

www.wsj.com

Always enjoy the WSJ tin-foil hat comments.

 

[Unpilot]

Always enjoy the WSJ tin-foil hat comments.

View attachment 919479

Met and chatted with folks like that...interesting take on life these folks have.

 

[AndrewZ]

Huh, I thought when V11 went out the recall update went along with it. Thats what I remember seeing couple weeks ago. Was that something different?

Yeah the recall was in 11.3.1, whether or not those things are actually really fixed, the only difference in update note description from 11.3.1->11.3.2 was adding the ability to move the turn signal feed away from the FSD visualization.

I hadn’t even noticed these videos were uploaded out of sequence and the latest one was 11.3.1, but there tends to be little difference between x.x.x point releases aside from fixing obvious bugs — this example was just bad planner logic.

 

[Unpilot]

In for 30 more....may need an intervention soon.

 

[aronth5]

I don't know if this is right, but I heard autonomous driving is permissible in most of (or maybe 40% of) the United States right now. Probably only because the regulator types are behind the curve but, nevertheless, the regulatory hurdle might be less significant than one would think.

I will believe a state really allows autonomy when state troopers or local police officer ignore a "driver" watching a video, and/or texting right in front of them.

 

[Cosmacelf]

What is Tesla's Mystery Magnet?

The automaker is swearing off rare-earth elements—but experts are doubtful

spectrum.ieee.org

Source - Twitter.

That article, while first starting off with a line about how impossible Tesla’s claim is, then concludes saying that a company will have a product for this in 2025. So, a big nothingburger, Tesla’s claim is true within 2 years from a best estimate. Sheesh.

 

[unk45]

I have a possibly oblique take on why google and apple are not going to deliver self driving cars in the real world any time soon.

...

The real world is chaos. Stuff breaks. Stuff wears out. Stuff is wrong, There is weather. People do dumb things. There are actual physical accidents that hurt people (not mere software bugs).

Tesla UNDERSTANDS this. The CEO used to code, but also has repaired cars, and runs a down-and-dirty practical rocket company too. He understands that no clever-ass technology survives 5 minutes contact with the messiness of the real world. You need that rare gift: Software engineers with experience of actually using products in the physical unpredictable world.

This is why Tesla laughs at geofencing, and mocks boston dynamics scripted set-pieces. These are the solutions of office-types who have never walked on anything but carpet.
Its also why I think Tesla will crush everyone, not just in FSD but real world robotics. It will be slow but rewarding. HODL.

This also applies to people who 'authoritatively' opine on bank failures, Tesla manufacturing, distribution and most other things. People who have both real world experience plus technical qualifications are increasingly rare, it seems to me. Your comments point out clearly one of the enormous advantages that Musk-led enterprises all have: they all know that fancy degrees alone will not work well. FWIW, that is one reason why I never showed a PhD on my bio; I did have the scars that real world experience awards those who think academic qualifications are sufficient; they help in most cases but they often induce hubris too. A life spent partly doing turnarounds taught me not to believe myself too much. Doing startups taught me that Elon is quite correct when he says he tries to "make the least wrong decision".

 

[hobbes]

That's a new one for me. Fascinating!

Hydrogen could be taken straight from the ground

Hydrogen could be taken straight from the ground to supplement hydrogen derived from fossil fuels and renewables, according to scientists researching this underexplored alternative. Natural, or white, hydrogen is continuously produced in the earth’s crust, and scientists are now discovering...

sciencebusiness.net

My first reaction was this wasn´t for real... Never heard about that. But I found several sources including wikipedia and Science journal that make it seem legit:

Science | AAAS

www.science.org

 

[Singuy]

Yes, heavily congested streets will be the final boss of FSD beta as now it's pretty good in low/median density environments.

While Andrewz enjoys showing FSD fail, lets watch a human driver almost hit someone in real time from the same video.

 

[2daMoon]

My heart-felt thanks go out to all TMCers this morning for the valiant and steadfast showing of colorblindness.

Keep up the fine work! (and remember, no poetry either!)

Oh, and also, fair appreciation to WSJ for any help they have provided in this morning's efforts.

 

[Knightshade]

I will believe a state really allows autonomy when state troopers or local police officer ignore a "driver" watching a video, and/or texting right in front of them.

If the vehicle is operating autonomously then there is no human driver, and any human in the car can watch a video just fine without breaking any laws.

Autonomous vehicles are already legal to operate in a number of US states (and some of the largest population ones too). Currently you can ride in such a vehicle in several cities as a robotaxi, though the only vehicle for sale to consumers with any legally-autonomous capability in the US right now is from Mercedes, and it's a pretty heavily ODD-restricted L3 vehicle whose approval for use will be state by state (as all such approvals are in the US right now- though in most of the states where it's possible to certify there's really nothing required to do so beyond the car maker saying it's autonomous and saying it can follow all traffic laws and the car maker has some huge insurance bond or policy behind the system). But in the very limited circumstances it operates in L3 mode, yes, you can legally watch a video, text, whatever since the car, not the human, is legally driving.

in fact Mercedes calls this out in the operating manual:

When DRIVE PILOT is active, you can use your time effectively if you observe the notes above. The information and communications systems, which are integrated into the vehicle and which you can easily control via the central display or steering wheel elements, are specially designed to assist you.

This includes the following functions, for example:
Playing videos and films in the central display
TV mode
Using communications equipment and video telephony integrated into the vehicle using the multimedia system
Using advanced In-Car Office functions

It does note availability might vary by location- and that'll be true of using L3 at all too since that's regulated state-by-state in the US.


I'd expect similar if/when Tesla offers true autonomous driving- given there's already a bunch of video and game features in the car.

 

[AndrewZ]

Yes, heavily congested streets will be the final boss of FSD beta as now it's pretty good in low/median density environments.

While Andrewz enjoys showing FSD fail, lets watch a human driver almost hit someone in real time from the same video.

Dense metro areas are where robotaxis make the most sense

My main purpose behind posting that clip was highlighting this particular tester’s risk tolerance. I’ve been following Beta since day 1 and have seen nary a tester take risks like that, letting the vehicle stop in oncoming lanes of traffic without disengaging either before it attempted a bad maneuver or to quickly correct in the middle of a maneuver. And sure enough, hours later another clip comes up with a near accident after letting Beta go ham in an unfamiliar dense traffic environment.

I was just in this thread going on about how it seems hard to believe there could be ~31 Beta accidents on urban streets lol, and these two clips from one person already make it feel more believable if there are more testers taking risks like this.

 

[GOVA]

Yes, heavily congested streets will be the final boss of FSD beta as now it's pretty good in low/median density environments.

While Andrewz enjoys showing FSD fail, lets watch a human driver almost hit someone in real time from the same video.

38:25 - "The connectivity is not there" - Imo, this is the major factor in this drive's performance.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Oh, and also, fair appreciation to WSJ for any help they have provided in this morning's efforts.

I think its more likely big money realizes that the wide release of FSD beta v11.3.2 over the weekend also just added $0.08 EPS to 2023 Q1.

 

[SOULPEDL]

My first reaction was this wasn´t for real... Never heard about that. But I found several sources including wikipedia and Science journal that make it seem legit:

Science | AAAS

www.science.org

"EVEN THOUGH IT’S CARBON-FREE, hydrogen has its faults as an energy source. One kilogram of hydrogen holds as much energy as a gallon of gasoline (just under 4 liters). But at ambient pressures, that same kilogram of hydrogen occupies more space than the drum of a typical concrete mixing truck. Pressurized tanks can hold more but add weight and costs to vehicles. Liquefying hydrogen requires chilling it to –253°C—usually a disqualifying expense."

Full stop.