My read of that is that March would boost sales versus January and especially late February.
Car retailers bid to recreate excitement of ‘dream’ of number plate change day
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
Car retailers bid to recreate excitement of ‘dream’ of number plate change day
Tesla has probably collected more revenue from FSD Capability purchases alone than Mobileye has made total lol. Mobileye is a publicly traded company under ticker MBLY, their Average System Price in 4Q22 was $56.20 (yes less than sixty dollars) and total 2022 revenue was $1.87billion.
I definitely think you're right that responsibility will be shared in the cases of these other manufacturers and the companies providing their hardware/systems.
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
Just a friendly reminder that next week will be a short week of trading as the NASDAQ market will be closed on April 07, 2023 in observance of Good Friday:
Here's hopin' that we have a Good Thursday next week.
Cheers to the Longs!
Here's hopin' that we have a Good Thursday next week.
Cheers to the Longs!
True. But they should recognize the reality of the situation. Eg, missed projections of FSD etc. It comes down to the integrity of the company. It’s a great company but this particular area is a huge miss. They need to be straight up and realistic about it.Tesla doesn’t have to own your opinion.
It ain't Twitter, you know? Whoever you are.
The reality is this: FSD's competence is improving over time. Slowly and behind schedule for certain, but it is still trending in the correct direction towards solving for L5. At some point the trailing 9's being solved will allow for L5 on populated roads.
I'm guessing you disagree with this? Do you think FSD has plateaued or is getting worse?
I think you should recognize that $TSLA is never going to the $75 level that you been beating the drum on since January.
cliff harris
Member
I think FSD progress has kinda STRETECHED OUT.
Not surprisingly, in decent weather, on decent wide-open newish roads, FSD seems to keep getting better and better and more awesome. I've watched enough wholemars videos and rob maurer videos to see the amazing progress that is being made...
...but the whole world is not the US, and its not just urban either. If you live in rural UK, then even autopilot is kinda flaky, let-alone FSD. The cameras are almost always blinded, or obscured by something or another, usually mud or grit or rain.
This is why its such a hot-button issue. For some, FSD is amazing, for others...it seems to have plateaued. It depends where you drive. As a customer, thats very frustrating, as I live in FSD-hell. As an investor, I'm not too worried, because even if it sucks for me, its getting super-useful for tens of millions of potential users in nice sunny cities with wide roads like the US.
Not surprisingly, in decent weather, on decent wide-open newish roads, FSD seems to keep getting better and better and more awesome. I've watched enough wholemars videos and rob maurer videos to see the amazing progress that is being made...
...but the whole world is not the US, and its not just urban either. If you live in rural UK, then even autopilot is kinda flaky, let-alone FSD. The cameras are almost always blinded, or obscured by something or another, usually mud or grit or rain.
This is why its such a hot-button issue. For some, FSD is amazing, for others...it seems to have plateaued. It depends where you drive. As a customer, thats very frustrating, as I live in FSD-hell. As an investor, I'm not too worried, because even if it sucks for me, its getting super-useful for tens of millions of potential users in nice sunny cities with wide roads like the US
.While AI seems to favor the big guys naturally (a highly centralizing force), Tesla's R&D spending efficiency is quite remarkable. Several orders of magnitude in greater spending can be overcome by spending efficiency. My perception is that Microsoft is very inefficient with its R&D spending.
That said, I wonder how much of Tesla's AI team will be sucked into the AI fever overtaking San Francisco. It would have been much better for Tesla if Dojo were a year more progressed.
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Perhaps this AI gold fever will incentivize Tesla to create new monetizable products through their FSD data and AI/ML...thus generating amazing revenues, promotions, much better pay, and share price of TSLA?
Observation: Last night on FSD, I found myself avoiding a disengagement more than normal. ((Let it go straight vs left, ignore a paint mark on the road...)
Can anyone guess why? (Bonus if you can also predict what this means.)
Can anyone guess why? (Bonus if you can also predict what this means.)
OK, here's a hint. Tesla FSD team heard "Take me to Fry's Marketplace" as the reason for a disengagement.
It's just a matter of attracting world-class people to work at Tesla. Optimus is a great incentive. Dojo would be a great incentive, but it is coming in a bit late. However, the software folks have many options now, so I wonder if Tesla can keep a great software team together.
Buckminster
Well-Known Member
Some of you will noted this table from Jordan:
As of today, he missed one - Tesla Nav. Great thread from green:
As of today, he missed one - Tesla Nav. Great thread from green:
I agree with most of that. And every update brings some improvement. But the rate of improvement really hasn’t changed much and imho at this rate we are probably a decade away from an autonomous vehicle with current hardware. I mean we are not even close to a hands off “ drive me to work while I eat breakfast and check my mail”. And again, that’s fine, but be open about it.
you had a bet with somoeone that if the car made it there on it’s own they would pay for groceries.
It means that FSD can already generate you money.
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
And it's not like Toyota (and other lagacy automakers) haven't have notice in China. From the article:
Industry has had plenty of warning of new emission standards
China released its rule for stage 6 light-duty vehicle emissions limits in December 2016, so manufacturers have had 7 years to bring their vehicles into line.
The “China 6 standard” is being implemented in two phases. The first phase, 6a took effect on July 1 2020 and the 6b standard will be implemented on July 1 2023.
The big automakers are whistling as they shuffle past their graveyard, ignoring their own imminent demise, pretending the past is the future. Lol, I'd hate to be a taxpayer in Japan or Germany when these dino-sours inevitably collapse under their own bulk and lethargy.
Cheers!
Joe F
Disruption is hard.
Agreed. Just came here to post greentcheonly's post!
VERY bullish! Roughly 2 minute uploads to the cloud on road conditions (rough road patches, stop signs, crosswalks etc.), parking lot info and more.
Apparently the code has been in production, just not sure with which release, unless I missed it in this long post.
petit_bateau
Active Member
It wasn't me. However it is true and I can explain for anyone interested.
It is because UK licence plates have/had a year code embedded in the number format. As a result depreciation patterns are heavily influenced by being either side of the date threshold, and thus so are buying patterns. The date threshold aligns with the annual government budget timing and this in turn also aligns with any announced changes to taxes/licence duties/etc associated with vehicles. Tax year is first week in April, exact date varies (there is a methodology to figure exactly when it will be, generally about 4-April or so) but the point is that it causes a lot of buyers to move purchases from Q1 into Q2.
It was once promoted as a way of encouraging short repurchase cycles by UK car buyers and so a benefit to UK automotive manufacturing. The harsh reality has been that for many decades it has instead predominantly benefitted the more up-market (mostly German - BAM) brands who can easily meet the fluctuating demand, and adversely affected local brands. Not that there are really any UK local brands left. Or much of any UK automotive industry post-Brexshit.*
My memory is there is now a sub-code in the licence plate that changes every six months to try and spread it out. It hasn't worked and is a daft non-solution due to the vested interests in opposing camps in the game. Personally I really don't care and don't pay any attention, but I'm a bangernomics person so the thought of buying a new car in the UK has never once crossed my own mind. Even my first Tesla will be used, hopefully in the not too distant future.
EDIT : the RHD Tesla's in the UK are all Shanghai (MIC) not Berlin (MIB). Apparently that is because Berlin is concentrating on minimising complexity until late on in its ramp. The consequence for Tesla in the UK is that shipments from China tend to be quite lumpy, and will probably become even lumpier when (eventually) ships from China start reducing (if ever).
* A automotive friend told me a few days ago he was checking through a whole list of UK 'racing' etc automotive industry players and almost all of them had relocated as a minimum their warehouse operations to the EU, and many their entire manufacturing business. The winners were mostly France, Netherlands, Germany. Core UK automotive is down over 54% since the Brexit referendum annoncement. He expects it to vanish completely. I think UK gov will bribe companies to stay with taxpayer funds personally. In my opinion ultimately Nissan will likely be the major beneficiary in the UK's post-Brexit BEV landscape, maybe also JLR, perhaps the BMW-Mini plant one day. He thinks everyone will simply pull out of UK. He is a real petrolhead who knows the scene much better than I do so I found his pessimism even more interesting than my personal cynicism.
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Plates are linked to cars in the UK and therefore a year, the plates change in April so if you buy the car then it's listed a one year newer than the previous month for resale value... I think they might have adapted this to twice per year at some point, but it makes for a lot of seasonality
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