Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[petit_bateau]

Were Nissan to be a net winner would be 'odd' since Sunderland voted to leave, IIRC, and Nissan has since ceased promoting its Sunderland plant. OTOH, there is not much of a plausible way to make that work, despite the nice new rail link that was built for them,

All this is becoming more like 'interesting days' and Rudyard Kipling might have said.
IMHO, one next move for Tesla might well be to begin some UK-specific solutions, sourcing or UK market CKD. After all some clever solutions might be beneficial for everyone.

- Nissan were given a post-Brexit secret letter of support from UK gov. So secret that citizens still have not been able to get access to it.
- Nissan have the only 500k/yr car plant in the UK, in Sunderland.
- The other large ones are BMW-Mini in Oxford-Cowley; and JLR-Tata in Solihull-Birmingham, both in the 200-250k/yr range.
- Everything else is much smaller, hugely uncompetitive.
- The Nissan Sunderland factory has often won Nissan best-in-world competitivness awards, and is also getting increased associated battery cell and pack investment at a nearby supplier site.
- So overall I think the game is for Nissan to be last man standing, but I am sure that BMW-mini and JLR-Tata will also extract cash from UK taxpayer.
------------
- BUT for Tesla it seems unwise to risk ANY capital in UK unless given >100% grant funding by UK taxpayer. There is nothing in UK that cannot be gained by building the same facility in the EU, but with zero political risk. The EU can suspend the tariff-free access any time UK does something stupid, and believe me the UK has been dancing along the edge of a very sharp knife in that respect over many issues. The likelihood is that one or more will eventually explode. Plus major issues with employabiity of indigenous workforce in UK, and inability to bring in substitute workforce. Plus academia and industry supply chain fleeing.

 

[advocate8]

When I first started investing in Tesla Toyota was the company I was concerned about. It made sense that the Prius experience could have been used as a launch pad. Turns out I was wrong, so far at least. (not that I expect anything to change)

Yup, they totally squandered their head start in pretty sophisticated energy management. They were years ahead. Much like Tesla is now.
But after decades of doing so many things smart, they seemed to have just stalled out their R&D with the Prius era and failed to be aggressive with decision-making.
They’re the biggest one that missed the change to be a serious early player. The other one I can’t figure out is Honda. Such a savvy, high-quality company but....Totally dropped the ball with EVs.

 

[Drax7]

Tesla has traded today 85 million shares in a 2 dollar range.
Makes no sense.

 

[Webeevdrivers]

You have zero idea ‘the reality’ of the situation unless you’re on the AP team or you know something from a professional standpoint because you’re working on full self driving at another company doing it the same way as Tesla AND you’re in the top percentile in your field.

OMG! They’re late with a driving feature the likes of you think is impossible. What a shock. Tesla has had to restart their programming from the start at least two times while trying to solve a problem the likes of you think is impossible. Also a shock. Tesla has had to upgrade and change the hardware on the cars a couple of times as they progressed and changed their approach to the problem. OMGWTH!?

If you’re so smart, then why’d you buy FSD on your vehicle in the first place? If the company’s integrity is so damaged from a shift in FSD timeline then how exactly is Tesla outselling other OEMs in many markets, continues to rapidly expand production of their cars, and keeps recording record sales numbers and gross margins? Fairy dust?

Your argument is tired at best at this moment. They’re late. We get it. You think current FSD is useless. We get it. You think Tesla can’t solve FSD before you hit the grave. We get it. Kindly move on with your opinion to the appropriate thread as it has < 0 relevance to the current SP being controlled by MMs, hedge funds, shorts and the US government.

Nah. . Now you are just makin chit up as I never said any of those things.

But hey. You do you. .

FSD is great. We use it all the time and it’s definitely useful and I have said that from the beginning. My position (and you obviously disagree…and that’s ok) is that we are no where near robotaxi state and probably won’t be for a long time with current hardware. I also feel that not being forthright with the problems they are having affects customer satisfaction and ultimately stock values. You disagree. That’s fine. But no need to be rude about it.

Jmho. I’ll leave it there.

Cheers.

 

[Fred42]

- Nissan were given a post-Brexit secret letter of support from UK gov. So secret that citizens still have not been able to get access to it.
- Nissan have the only 500k/yr car plant in the UK, in Sunderland.
- The other large ones are BMW-Mini in Oxford-Cowley; and JLR-Tata in Solihull-Birmingham, both in the 200-250k/yr range.
- Everything else is much smaller, hugely uncompetitive.
- The Nissan Sunderland factory has often won Nissan best-in-world competitivness awards, and is also getting increased associated battery cell and pack investment at a nearby supplier site.
- So overall I think the game is for Nissan to be last man standing, but I am sure that BMW-mini and JLR-Tata will also extract cash from UK taxpayer.
------------
- BUT for Tesla it seems unwise to risk ANY capital in UK unless given >100% grant funding by UK taxpayer. There is nothing in UK that cannot be gained by building the same facility in the EU, but with zero political risk. The EU can suspend the tariff-free access any time UK does something stupid, and believe me the UK has been dancing along the edge of a very sharp knife in that respect over many issues. The likelihood is that one or more will eventually explode. Plus major issues with employabiity of indigenous workforce in UK, and inability to bring in substitute workforce. Plus academia and industry supply chain fleeing.

So the British Government took the Morgenthau Plan, used white-out where it said Germany and typed UK over it, gave it a new name, and when passed pronounced it a great victory.

 

[jerry33]

Yup, they totally squandered their head start in pretty sophisticated energy management. They were years ahead. Much like Tesla is now.
But after decades of doing so many things smart, they seemed to have just stalled out their R&D with the Prius era and failed to be aggressive with decision-making.
They’re the biggest one that missed the change to be a serious early player. The other one I can’t figure out is Honda. Such a savvy, high-quality company but....Totally dropped the ball with EVs.

The Prius was born because Toyota was in a very bad way in the Japanese market. So they got their best engineers from each department together to create exciting tech for future cars. They really didn't expect to get a car--that was just a bonus. After the 2004 refresh and Toyota's Japanese market significantly improved, the engineers went back to their own departments and it was business as usual. Toyota really stopped most development by 2005. They've added some bits an pieces for regulatory purposes (such as the plug in Prius), but no new development.

 

[wipster]

I arrived in Brussels the day the Brexit vote result was announced, and in my jet lagged haze watched CNN-I with my friend. I was stunned how detailed and insightful the discussion was. Simply catering to a different audience which could also be the case in Brasil. Although regular CNN political discussion panels are good, particularly if David Axelrod is included.

Agreed. Since switching to Hulu Live, it's available and I haven't watched CNN US since. Christine Amanpour, Richard Quest, and others make a huge difference, plus they're talking about the world, not just Trump and school shootings. Far more watchable IMHO.

 

[Usain]

As of today, he missed one - Tesla Nav. Great thread from green:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1641450299285209088

I've long suspected Tesla would do something like that (automated Waze) if they weren't already. This is what you can do when your entire fleet is equipped with FSD hardware. And as the fleet gets bigger the "Waze on steroids" effect will make it better and better.

Nobody else can match this.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Congrats TMC! You know who you are!!

'Big Short' investor Michael Burry says he was 'wrong' to tell investors to sell By Investing.com

'Big Short' investor Michael Burry says he was 'wrong' to tell investors to sell

www.investing.com

 

[wipster]

Not quite but I like your thinking. (It can make it no problem every time, this is Chandler we're taking, I'm just picky.)

Second hint: I didn't like the map route so I del it and took the time to select my preferred route (it's also giving me more time to select the alt route than before). Normally I disengage, pass through the light to force the new route, and re-engaged FSD (by dragging the Nav bar down with my finger in case you didn't know it will go Home this easy way.) So I actually took the more tedious way (map selection). Hmmm....

Giving-it-away... The first dip I disengaged and was reported, the second one that followed was no problem... I slowed it down with the thumbwheel.

Is it sinking in yet?

Trust but verify?

 

[replicant]

Bloomberg - Are you a robot?

www.bloomberg.com

>Like the Ford deal structure, Tesla would own and operate the factory while licensing the technology from CATL.
Uh?

 

[EVNow]

What Joe Manchin doesn't seem to know is that supply chains do not turn on a dime. It is unreasonable to expect to change the sourcing of a large critical EV component with just a few months notice. If Treasury was being realistic, they'd extend the current incentives for 3 years (enough time to create a N. American LFP supply chain), and make future benefits dependant upon making good on those plans. It's time to get the lead out, literally.

I'm fairly sure Manchin is well aware of how long things take. Afterall he is a coal businessman ...

There is no reason to subsidize Chinese made batteries.

 

[SOULPEDL]

Ford (and Taycan) both announced price increases on the Pro, Lariat, and Platinum. Battery issue "resolved" and orders open again on (Edit: F-150 Lightning). Still not clear what it was exactly.

Ford announces another price increase for the F-150 Lightning

Ford has announced a price increase for its entry-level F-150 Lightning Pro. The automaker has increased the price of this trim level, which is designed for commercial use, from $57,869 to $61,869. The price hike […]

driveteslacanada.ca

Porsche Taycan prices increased for the 2024 model year

At a time when most automakers are lowering prices on their electric vehicles (EVs), Porsche has increased pricing across their entire Taycan lineup for the 2024 model year. The price increases have taken effect in […]

driveteslacanada.ca

Also, had to look it up BTFD (Buy the Fu***ng Dip). Michael, didn't understand us diehards nor the condition of the planet it seems.

 

[Dikkie Dik]

Gheghe nice thread, Tesla

https://twitter.com/x/status/1641470743304085506

 

[unk45]

- Nissan were given a post-Brexit secret letter of support from UK gov. So secret that citizens still have not been able to get access to it.
- Nissan have the only 500k/yr car plant in the UK, in Sunderland.
- The other large ones are BMW-Mini in Oxford-Cowley; and JLR-Tata in Solihull-Birmingham, both in the 200-250k/yr range.
- Everything else is much smaller, hugely uncompetitive.
- The Nissan Sunderland factory has often won Nissan best-in-world competitivness awards, and is also getting increased associated battery cell and pack investment at a nearby supplier site.
- So overall I think the game is for Nissan to be last man standing, but I am sure that BMW-mini and JLR-Tata will also extract cash from UK taxpayer.
------------
- BUT for Tesla it seems unwise to risk ANY capital in UK unless given >100% grant funding by UK taxpayer. There is nothing in UK that cannot be gained by building the same facility in the EU, but with zero political risk. The EU can suspend the tariff-free access any time UK does something stupid, and believe me the UK has been dancing along the edge of a very sharp knife in that respect over many issues. The likelihood is that one or more will eventually explode. Plus major issues with employabiity of indigenous workforce in UK, and inability to bring in substitute workforce. Plus academia and industry supply chain fleeing.

The Sunderland plant was for some years the best plant Nissan had. In the beginning, around 1989 I was part of a group that went there for benchmarking and technology transfer related to the launch of Infiniti. In the end Sunderland was not involved. Since their production post-Brexit has continued to drop to under half their capacity and the disarray post-ghost has not improved, the resolutions are unclear, secret agreements or no. At the present time Renault-Nissan-Mitsubishi-Renault Korea (formerly Samsung)-Dacia and Venucia (Dongfeng Nissan) are all trying to figure out how to collaborate on next-generation vehicles. In that larger context it remains unclear how the Sunderland plans will develop.

Every major part of the alliance has been negatively affected by Tesla, except for Korea. Until now each of the parts have done BEV independently and lost any advantages of scale in sourcing, development and production. Worse, the Paris and Tokyo groups aren't cooperative with each other, much less with Dongfeng. Could they possibly cooperate with regard to Sunderland?

Really, as @petit_bateau says, Sunderland is very important to the Sunak government.
For seriously arcane connection there is this: Infosys, controlled by Rishi Sunak's father-in-law has for some time been a large IT vendor to Nissan. They also promote their OEM IT solutions:
https://www.infosys.com/industries/communication-services/documents/digital-consumer-autobahn.pdf
A quick review of these links, and perhaps a foray into some of the other connections, can help inform the Prime Minister's views. As with most things about Mr. Sunak, his policies regarding automotive issues are derived in part from these sources.

I am suggesting nothing improper! I am suggesting that Rishi Sunak is one of a very few politicians who actually has be background and sources to understand these issues.
If anybody can actually change the trajectory of British automotive decline it may well be Mr. Sunak.

disclosure: Since I have worked with several of the relevant parties over the years I have definite biases. Those lead me to think that if the UK government really is serious they'll find a way to induce Tesla to invest in some type of UK production. No matter the hopes of rescuing Nissan, it's very unlikely that they can be successful.

 

[SOULPEDL]

Gheghe nice thread, Tesla

https://twitter.com/x/status/1641470743304085506

Delete tire rotation for the MYP. Rear tires are bigger than the fronts - 2 pair of rears needed for every front pair. Yikes!
Meanwhile, Bob picked up a full set of Model 3 for under $700. There's some volume outfit in California (forgot the name, reminded me of Canadian Tire). Must be a lot of Tesla Model 3's out there.

 

[ZeApelido]

Tesla herding CATL to the U.S.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1641509645326901253

 

[MP3Mike]

Battery issue "resolved" and orders open again on (Edit: F-150 Lightning). Still not clear what it was exactly.

The issue was that S-K did too good of a job copying the LG technology. They even duplicated the "feature" that folded the cathode so that it would short out in the battery causing a fire. (Similar to the problem that GM and Hyundai had to deal with in the LG cells that they used.)

 

[Ogre]

I see no reason why computer evolution would stop and FSD be frozen in time from now on.
It's of course impossible to prove that FSD will be solved, but easy to envision. No doubt in my mind at least.

My concern with FSD is the current pace of AI development. If Tesla solves FSD/ Robotaxi and the general state of AI is advanced enough where it can be deployed in every fleet within a year or two after Tesla is able to deploy it, then their competitive advantage will melt away.

The concern is not so much “Will FSD be solved?” Spoiler: It will.

The concern is how quickly after Tesla is it available to the competition.

At that point, then Tesla’s big advantage is in the library of data collection they’ve been doing and in having a fleet they can deploy it to—assuming HW3 is capable of supporting it.

 

[nativewolf]

Bloomberg - Are you a robot?

www.bloomberg.com

>Like the Ford deal structure, Tesla would own and operate the factory while licensing the technology from CATL.
Uh?

Because as stated everywhere it is all about the batteries and Tesla has been failing to ramp for 2 years now. So now they are copying ford. Which is troubling if I were an investor and this will give me pause in discussions with family. Kudos to ford I guess. Blah