Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Singuy]

Reactions here illustrate why Troy should just stick to his guns lol, seriously can't win. Forecasts are too low, then suddenly they're too high and he's colluding with the Wall Street fatcats to fabricate a miss at the last minute.

Time to gear up for the Q2 rollercoaster!

Like what, 409k? That was his prediction for the majority if the quarter. If he didn't move up the last few weeks he'll be way off.

 

[Todd Burch]

I had to chuckle that CNBC quoted @Troy ... but my hats off to @Troy for all their effort. Well within the targeted 3% error margin.

ps : Inline with my expectation ... though at points I was wondering whether EM will ask the sales teams to stop selling exactly at 420k

He was at 407k a few weeks ago. Many of us were in the 420s at the start of the quarter.

 

[gtrplyr1]

310 to 422 ?? YOY ... that's amazing growth!

Well done Tesla and crew.

 

[NicoV]

So inventory increased by 18K, half of them S/X. In Q4 it was almost 35K. In Q3 it was 23K. In Q2 it was 4K. In those quarters the increase was mainly 3/Y.
Maybe we’re now past Max-Q in the elimination of the wave.

 

[Knightshade]

Congrats Troy for suppressing the stock, for profit, on national television. So you go with 405K for 90% of the quarter, then realize how far off you are and over-do it to 427K creating a miss for CNBC to talk about. Well done

Troy was 426k at start of quarter, and 427k at the end. Actual came in ~1% of both his START and END estimates for deliveries.

Instead folks want to pick some date in between and ONLY be mad THAT number was wrong.

Literally no matter what he does people will cherry pick whatever they need to be mad at him about it.

 

[AndrewZ]

Like what, 409k? That was his prediction for the majority if the quarter. If he didn't move up the last few weeks he'll be way off.

Fine I'll go through and compile all of his estimates

06-Jan: 426,000
15-Jan: 438,000
05-Feb: 432,000
14-Feb: 430,000
21-Feb: 421,000
28-Feb: 412,000
07-Mar: 409,000
14-Mar: 413,000
21-Mar: 418,000

Not sure how you arrive at 409,000 being his prediction for the majority of the quarter.

 

[SmokyPeat]

It seems to me that Tesla met Wall St. expectations for deliveries. It should be interesting to see how the stock reacts tomorrow. I predict a green day unless macros get spooked by the OPEC+ production cuts.

 

[Todd Burch]

But Shanghai also had downtime at the end of Q4 as well. Overall considering Berlin and Austin are supposed to be going through big production ramps, to see so little production growth QoQ is not great.

The flip side to that though is Shanghai at least so far, seems to be full production for all of Q2 and the China market seems to be recovering some. Production from Q1 to Q2 should see a major ramp up. If not, there’s concerns

Austin is on the front side of the S curve. Hasn't ramped significantly yet. Berlin is of course now at 5k/week, but that mostly happened in the last month of the quarter...so the effects are a bit delayed.

Are you suggesting that Tesla is idling their lines? No way.

 

[cliff harris]

I don't think its at all weird for a lot of S/X to be in transit. There seems to be a lot of announcements recently about Tesla entering new markets in recent months, and they need their first cars.
Smoothing out of delivery waves is likely a lot harder than it sounds. a US model S and UK model S are not identical units that can be stuck on a boat or a train depending on whim. UK models have CCS chargers and RHD, and there are likely other changes too. Europe sales of everything were suppressed a bit by the USS fiasco, but thats getting resolved now, so I'd expect European numbers to trickle upwards from here.

The numbers are about what I expect. All those cars will easily get sold, so who cares about deliveries (outside of wall st). Seems like a pretty solid quarter. Next Q will be interesting with continued Berlin/Texas ramp.

I'd expect the stock to be steady, maybe a slight bump Monday. Financials will move the needle way more.

 

[Todd Burch]

What are the other Auto company's numbers going to be for the quarter.......and what excuse....supply chain issues again?

Yeah that's what I was thinking about.

People will criticize Tesla despite being a record quarter over Q4 in garbage economic conditions...but once other auto companies come out with their numbers, it's going to be sweet sweet syrup.

 

[DutchDriver]

So what or who decides Wall Streets analyst expectations? There seem to be two figures, 420K and 430K.
Of course now the media will cover this as a miss

Tesla posts record quarterly deliveries after price cuts, up 4% from Q4

Tesla Inc on Sunday posted record quarterly vehicle deliveries, but quarter-on-quarter sales growth was modest despite price cuts as rising competition and a bleak economic outlook weighed.

www.reuters.com

So I guess all the gains of TSLA made last friday will be gone by tomorrow.

 

[AndrewZ]

I'd say S/X are in transit because excess inventory in markets that were previously supply-constrained, namely the US, is now being moved to new markets. Troy had production much lower on the S/X lineup I think assuming Tesla would rather constrain production, but they continued producing and are shipping to those new markets. We're seeing similar stuff with the 3/Y lineup being moved around to smaller markets, fulfilling orders that likely already existed.

It'll be interesting to see what impact this has on the cost side of things, because international movement of vehicles is most definitely increasing. It is likely not cheap to move S/X from the US to China, South Korea, etc.

 

[Nocturnal]

So what or who decides Wall Streets analyst expectations? There seem to be two figures, 420K and 430K.
Of course now the media will cover this as a miss

Tesla posts record quarterly deliveries after price cuts, up 4% from Q4

Tesla Inc on Sunday posted record quarterly vehicle deliveries, but quarter-on-quarter sales growth was modest despite price cuts as rising competition and a bleak economic outlook weighed.

www.reuters.com

So I guess all the gains of TSLA made last friday will be gone by tomorrow.

Real investors don’t care about this narrative BS so I find it hard to believe this FUD still has teeth. Regular old hit piece from Reuters.

 

[jkirkwood001]

I'm more visual as many of you know - this helps me put the numbers into perspective:
(Edit: thx @mongo for the correction)

View attachment 924181

So looked at this way, yes it's a record quarter, but no, not better than previous Q1s. In fact, from a GR perspective, it's the worst YoY increase since 2020 Q2 (the start of the pandemic):

View attachment 924185

But I look forward to faster growth as Berlin and Austin keep ramping (ever the optimist!).

Whoops, Sorry everyone. It was unintentional, I assure you!

Okay so the numbers are actually quite... average. Production YoY growth of +44.3% and deliveries +36.4%:

Thanks @mongo and @dl003. Edit @OnMyWayOut too jeez.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Tesla is taking their sweet time with deliveries as op margin is now key to the company. They don't care breaking their backs on delivering a few extra cars.

It’s one thing to not do the end of quarter rush to make as many deliveries as possible. It’s another to not deliver half of your production for the quarter. Tesla seems to be doing just fine with the 3/Y when it comes to logistics and ending the wave and smoothing out deliveries across territories.

S/X refresh continues to be a royal cluster f of mess. At least with the Model 3 ramp the mess was sorted out within 2-3 quarters. We’re going on 2 years now of S/X not even being up to their max production rates before the refresh. It’s just a mess and Tesla really provides no insight into what exactly continues to keep dogging the S/X lines from running at max capacity and smoothly.

Anyways, I’ll shut up about S/X now. They don’t matter going forward but it surely will be used in a bear narrative for at least the next quarter

 

[cliff harris]

So in Q1 2023 the prod-deliveries percentage is 4% of production. Just 4% of production is in transit or adding to inventory.
(440,808 422,875)
For Q4 2022 it was 7%.
(439,701 405,278)

The percentage of production that is in transit, or heading to inventory has DECLINED by actually quite a huge margin.
Is my maths wrong? because it seems like people are panicking about something thats actually *less* of an issue than before.

Surely the mass media couldn't be spinning the facts wrong?
This is a very good quarter methinks.

 

[jkirkwood001]

They've done a lot better than this quarter!

View attachment 924184

K, sorry, I had an error in my Q1 2022 numbers. It's still not better than other quarters, but not as bad as I suggested, and actually good from a Q1 QoQ perspective:

 

[AndrewZ]

S/X logistics are harder because they're only produced in Fremont right

3/Y are produced in Berlin and Shanghai, with the latter already shipping a lot of vehicles to Europe, and deliveries were being pushed big time into smaller markets like Sweden, Denmark, Portugal, etc

 

[Nocturnal]

Surely the mass media couldn't be spinning the facts wrong?
This is a very good quarter methinks.

Considering half of Wall Street has been screaming that we will be eating our pets due to the economy collapsing I think this is solid.

Sure we have had some price cuts and incentives but consumers are still buying Teslas hand over fist. Once the powers that be decide to tell everyone that the economy is fine even more buyers will show up.

 

[Todd Burch]

So what or who decides Wall Streets analyst expectations? There seem to be two figures, 420K and 430K.
Of course now the media will cover this as a miss

Tesla posts record quarterly deliveries after price cuts, up 4% from Q4

Tesla Inc on Sunday posted record quarterly vehicle deliveries, but quarter-on-quarter sales growth was modest despite price cuts as rising competition and a bleak economic outlook weighed.

www.reuters.com

So I guess all the gains of TSLA made last friday will be gone by tomorrow.

I think Rob mentioned Tesla-compiled number was 420 or 421k...it's basically a slight beat, unless you are a CNBC fan.